Please note that there will be a hiatus in the publication of reports between 22nd December and 2nd January due to the Christmas period. Reports will be published as normal from Monday 5th January 2026.
Gong Xi Fa Cai! Happy Year of the Snake to everyone in the oil market while they anxiously watch the front-month Brent futures contract tread around the low $77/bbl handle on the eve of expiry. The soon-to-be-prompt Apr ’25 Brent
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s
The tide finally turned on US LPG as the weather cleared on the Eastern and Southern coasts. The Mar’25 Mont Belvieu TET propane, C3 LST, weakened from 91.55c/gal on the evening of 17 Jan to 84.375c/gal by the afternoon of
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract climbed to $76.40/bbl at 16:00 GMT, softened to $76.05/bbl at 16:20 GMT before climbing again to $76.40/bbl at 16:40 GMT. The crude futures contract again met resistance at this level and declined to $75.65/bbl at
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract climbed to $77.15/bbl at 14:05 GMT but softened subsequently, briefly weakening below $76/bbl at 16:50 GMT.
As the Middle Eastern crude market continues to tighten due to supply tightness fears from the prospect of further sanctions pressure on Russia, the front-month Feb’25 Brent/Dubai swaps contract reached an all-time flow of -$2.50/bbl, while the Feb/Mar box fell
The naphtha complex rebalanced amid mass stop-outs and heavy selling into the cracks, which saw huge pressure in both regions. Stronger crude pressured the cracks alongside weaker demand estimates in the East and clear refiner selling in MOPJ flat price
After coming off below $0.70/bbl on 20 Jan due to offers in the physical, the North Sea Dated Brent physical differential fell below $0.30/bbl on 23 Jan amid offers for WTI Midland and Ekofisk. The physical saw more support after
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in Brent/Dubai and naphtha swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods
March Brent began the week with a strong correction, down around 2% to close at $76.93/bbl on Monday. The move came with a significant weakening of price structure, as the prompt month-time spread shed some 20 cents to $0.80/bbl. Oil
Following the sell-off on Monday afternoon, the Mar’25 Brent crude futures grinded higher overnight on Tuesday, rising from $76.50/bbl to $77.48/bbl by 06:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister met with his Iraqi and Libyan
The Mar’25 Brent futures contract experienced a weaker afternoon, trading down from $78.16/bbl at midday to $76.76/bbl, where it trades at the time of writing (17:30 GMT) as concerns surrounding oil supply disruptions from Colombia eased. In headlines, Iraq’s Rumaila
In the week ending 21 January, money managers reduced their shorts in both crude futures benchmarks. In contrast, they added length in Brent for the second consecutive week but reduced length in WTI futures. The oil market was tentative approaching
In the week ending 27 Jan, the soon-to-be-prompt Apr’25 Brent futures contract weakened from an intraday high of $79.80/bbl on 20 Jan to briefly hitting $76.90/bbl on 24 Jan before climbing to $77.90/bbl by 11:30 GMT on 27 Jan (time
The Mar’25 Brent futures contract gapped down this morning, where it met support above $77.50/bbl between 0100 and 0220 GMT before seeing greater support into the morning. The prompt has now inched up to just shy of $78.85/bbl at 1042
