Naphtha & Gasoline reports
Please note that these reports will now be published every Thursday.
Oil finally soared over $150/bbl as the US raced to fill up the SPR to 2022 levels… and then I woke up. It was a crazy couple of hours as traders asked themselves “What the hell does Jennifer Granholm mean?”
The May Brent futures contract has experienced a correction downwards this morning, opening around $86.50/bbl in the early hours of today before seeing selling pressure push the contract down to $85.75/bbl at the time of writing (10:00 GMT).
ONYX CFTC PREDICTOR – In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report.
The May Brent futures contract continued spiraling downwards this afternoon with prices tumbling from $86.70/bbl around noon to $85.80/bbl at 17:15 GMT (time of writing).
The May Brent futures contract opened around low $87/bbl levels this morning, and has corrected slightly lower since, settling around $86.72/bbl at the time of writing (10:10 GMT).
In January, we saw a very bullish market, with genuine supply tightness, and what we ended up with was a market that jumped the gun, and got too short too soon ahead of maintenance.
This afternoon witnessed another win for the crude bulls amid the May Brent futures contract rallying to $87.60/bbl at 17:25 GMT (time of writing). The contract hit its highest value since October 2023.
It’s been a bullish fortnight in the gasoline complex: The Apr EBOB crack rallied despite persistent selling from trade houses, refiners and funds…
The May Brent futures contract has seen a quiet start in the early hours of the morning at around $86.70/bbl levels before seeing volatility enter the market from around 07:00 GMT, with prices oscillating between $86.92/bbl and $86.49/bbl at 09:00
Onyx Alpha will publish speculative and hedging trades every week based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods.
Prompt Brent futures flat price has witnessed a strong, yet volatile, afternoon period with prices supported from lows of $85.47/bbl at 12:50 GMT to print at $86.59/bbl at 16:50 GMT.
For the week to Mar 12, the crude futures witnessed an atmosphere of bearishness from money managers. Total long positions in Brent and WTI declined by 12.5mbbls (-2.40%) whilst total short positions climbed by 3.5mbbls (+3.04%).
After surging to four-month highs towards the end of last week, May Brent futures started the week in a similar vein, strengthening to briefly surpass the $86/bbl mark and record a near 5% increase week-on-week.
The May Brent futures contract clocked in a volatile morning today with prices surging up to $86.20/bbl at 08:50 GMT, dropping to $85.80/bbl handles around 09:10 GMT but ultimately correcting upwards, hovering just below $86/bbl at 10:20 GMT.
Crude flat price remained supported above $85/bbl levels on Friday afternoon, trading at $85.33/bbl at 17:20 GMT. Prices saw a very comfortable weekly gain, topping $85/bbl for the first time since November.
