Crude oil derivatives are essential to the global economy, powering transportation, manufacturing, and financial markets.
Find live prices on Flux Terminal. Trade Crude cost-free on Onyx Markets.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract rose this afternoon, from $64.45/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $65.28/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). According to Reuters, Chinese refinery Yanchang Petroleum (capacity 348kb/d) is seeking non-Russian oil in its latest crude tender for December to mid-February delivery. Simultaneously, Sinopec’s subsidiary, Luoyang Petrochemical (capacity 200kb/d), has closed its two crude distillation units for maintenance until late November, partly due to Western sanctions. Elsewhere, Russia’s crude oil deliveries to Asia via the Northern Sea Route have decreased 4.2% y/y to about 13mb, according to Kommersant daily. The use of the North Sea route is limited to warmer months, as early winter ice already hinders tanker movements, according to satellite data. In Bulgaria, the chairman of the state reserves agency stated that the country has approximately one month of gasoline supplies remaining as it prepares for US sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil, which owns the nation’s largest oil refinery and a significant portion of its storage and pipeline infrastructure. Elsewhere, India’s state-owned ONGC has reported a 17.8% y/y decline in its net profit for Q3 2025, with crude realisations at $67.23/bbl. In other news, TotalEnergies, Qatar Energy, and Petronas have signed a 5-year deal with Guyana to explore a shallow-water block, according to company executives. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.29/bbl and $0.73/bbl, respectively.
The past few sessions were a calamity for North Sea crude bulls, as the physical differential collapsed towards -$0.80/bbl, the lowest level since May 2024. Falling by 80c in a session, Vitol, which previously was the main buyer, flipped short, and the herd promptly followed. The bleeding was only stopped when Total lifted from Vitol. The oil glut bears have been vindicated, and this comes during a very high margin environment, where levels are at their highest in the year-to-date, driven by relentlessly bullish gasoline and gasoil cracks. The Q1 DFL has been heavily offered, and there may have been merit to OPEC’s pause in their output hike for that period.
Volumes in the Dubai complex slipped into a lull this week, with Dubai spreads largely shadowing the weak Dated Brent narrative….
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract eased this afternoon, from $64.10/bbl at 14:00 GMT to $63.42/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters reported that Russia’s Lukoil has declared force majeure at its Iraqi oil field, West Qurna-2 (capacity 480kb/d), with Bulgaria well poised to seize the refinery. According to a senior Iraqi oil industry official, if the reasons for the extenuating circumstances are not resolved within six months, Lukoil will cease production and completely withdraw from the project. In other news, a Reuters report has stated that India’s HPCL refiner is seeking two cargoes of naphtha for November delivery, following the disruption of its Russian supplies amid US sanctions on Russia; the prompt tender has been extended to 12 November. Elsewhere, Eni and Petronas plan to initiate as many as eight new upstream projects in Indonesia and Malaysia over the next three years, according to Eni’s Chief Executive, Claudio Descalzi. The joint venture intends to combine a portfolio of gas-producing and development assets in Malaysia and Indonesia, with an initial production rate exceeding 300 kb/d. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.22/bbl and $0.36/bbl.
View: Neutral-to-Bullish Target Price: $63-65/bbl The M1 Brent futures flat price contract found a floor below $63/bbl on 6 Nov and has since risen to $63.90/bbl at the time of writing on 10 Nov. Short-term technical movements hint at near-term
In the week ending 07 November, Refinery Margins rose across all regions: Asian M1 Margins up to $13.21/bbl (+$0.64/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins up to $11.77/bbl (+$0.56/bbl w/w), and US Margins up to $17.38/bbl (+$0.65/bbl w/w).
Asian margins were driven up by 92 Brent Crack and Dubai 92 Crack which increased by +$1.81/bbl w/w and +$2.01/bbl w/w respectively. The S10 Brent Crack was the biggest mover, increasing by +$2.87/bbl w/w, the Kero Dubai Crack was close by increasing by +$2.75/bbl w/w.
In Europe ICE Gasoil crack was the biggest mover, increasing by +$3.19/bbl w/w, EBOB Cracks also saw strength, increasing by $2.63/bbl.
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract traded rangebound this afternoon, from highs of $64/bbl at 12:30 GMT to lows of $63.50/bbl at 16:00 GMT. Prices are at $63.58/bbl as of 17:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters reported that two tankers carrying roughly 1.5mb of Russian crude have anchored at both ends of the Suez Canal, signalling Russia’s challenges in selling oil following Western sanctions last month. The tankers Sikar and Monte 1 were loaded from Russia’s Baltic port of Primorsk in early October and have been anchored for over a week, per LSEG and OilX data. In other news, a spokesperson for Finnish petrol station chain Teboil, owned by Russia’s Lukoil, has stated that the company is running low on fuel due to US sanctions disrupting its business. Following the collapse of a Gunvor deal to acquire Lukoil’s foreign assets, the Russian major is struggling to maintain its foreign companies. Elsewhere, India’s oil ministry data show that fuel consumption has risen 7.7% m/m, hitting a five-year high in October of $20mnmt. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.26/bbl and $0.46/bbl, respectively.
In this edition, we take a look at the Dec’25 Gasoline TA Arb.
In this edition, we take a look at the Dec’25 NWE Naphtha Crack.
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract weakened this afternoon, from $64/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $62.98/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters reported that Lukoil’s Volgograd refinery has halted operations after a Ukrainian drone attack in the Southern city. The refinery (capacity 100mb/d) reported that its primary CDU unit and a hydrocracker had been damaged in the attack. In other news, Russian oil is trading at its biggest discount to Brent crude in a year, as Indian and Chinese refiners cut their purchases amid US sanctions on Russian major companies. According to a Reuters report, the gap between Russian Urals and Brent increased by $2/bbl y/y to roughly $4/bbl below Brent for December delivery. Elsewhere, PetroChina is planning to phase out production at 19 inefficient units across its facilities as it looks to trim overcapacity. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 are at $0.26/bbl and $0.24/bbl, respectively.
“On a scale of zero to 10, with 10 being the best, I would say the meeting was a 12” as Trump made his admiration for Chinese President Xi Jinping very clear last week. There was to be no Halloween freakout as the trade détente between the world’s two largest economies reassured jittery markets. Meanwhile, Trump has been eyeing up Venezuela, as the US military builds up alongside the coast. We won’t speculate on the politics, but for oil, the endgame is undoubtedly bearish, reaffirming the America-invading-for-oil memes. The Latin American nation has the largest oil reserves in the world, and a ramp-up of production makes even the most dire crude balances seem bullish. For refiners, this month is certainly looking like a 12, as margins have reached their highest levels year-to-date. One may be mistaken to think this would translate into stronger spot crude demand, but North Sea differentials have tanked this week. Still, refiners are getting throwbacks to the summers of ’22 and ’23, and it really has been a perfect storm. Distillate cracks are the bullish market reaction, and this has resulted in “knock” on effects for gasoline, where the crack’s rally continues to baffle. Shifting slates toward distillates has reduced gasoline output, as the lower heavy naphtha cut stays in the jet/kero pool, limiting feedstock for reforming and blending.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract initially rose this afternoon, from $64.10/bbl at 14:00 GMT to $64.67/bbl at 16:00 GMT. Prices met resistance here, easing to $63.71/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has stated that Russia is seeking partners for NIS, the Serbian-based oil company currently under US sanctions, to resolve a deadlock with the US regarding the company’s Russian ownership. Elsewhere, Reuters sources have reported that the Iraqi state oil company SOMO has cancelled three Lukoil crude oil loadings this month, following new US sanctions on the Russian oil giant. The loadings from Iraq’s West Qurna-2 oilfield (of which Lukoil holds a 75% equity stake) were scheduled for mid-November. In Bulgaria, local media reports indicate that the government intends to propose legislation allowing a special manager, if appointed, to oversee the sale of the Burgas oil refinery (capacity 190kb/d), which Lukoil owns. The legislation would amend the rights of a special manager to sell the asset, to which the refinery’s legal owner would have no right to appeal. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.30/bbl and $0.43/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract rose this afternoon, from $63.93/bbl at 14:00 GMT to $64.55/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, a Reuters survey shows that OPEC’s oil output increased by 30kb/d m/m in October, although the growth rate slowed compared to September. In Nigeria, the country’s national oil company (NNPC) is set to raise oil production to 2mb/d within the next two years, according to the executive vice president for upstream, Udy Ntia. In other news, Reuters sources have reported that Russian oil giant Lukoil is having difficulty maintaining its international operations as Western sanctions disrupt oil loadings in Iraq, pump stations in Finland, and trading in Switzerland. Lukoil’s Geneva-based trading arm, Litasco, has reportedly struggled to charter ships as UK-based shipbrokers have refused to cooperate after Western sanctions. Further, employee layoffs have also been reported at Litasco. Elsewhere, a document seen by Reuters has revealed that a major fuel supplier in Turkey has informed its clients that its diesel prices will rise, citing Western sanctions on Russian oil; the supplier was not named. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $0.75/bbl, respectively.
