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In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Jun’25 gasoline E/W.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally all afternoon to $65.95/bbl at 17:35 BST before falling off to $64.42/bbl at 18:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Indonesia is questioning a number Singapore-based trading firms as part of a $12B corruption probe into oil imports by state energy firm Pertamina between 2018 and 2023. Several Pertamina executives have been arrested, and authorities may question the firms in Singapore after failed summonses. Elliott Investment Management, now holding 5% of BP, is pressing for a quick replacement for outgoing Chair Helge Lund to drive a strategic revamp. The activist fund favours candidates with fossil fuel or mining backgrounds to restore investor confidence. BP may also need a new CEO, with former BP exec and current Rolls-Royce CEO Tufan Erginbilgic seen as a strong option. In other news, Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said oil exploration near the mouth of the Amazon River should proceed, but warned it must not delay the country’s shift to clean energy. The region is seen as Brazil’s most promising for new oil discoveries, yet drilling is controversial due to its location in the Amazon basin .Haddad emphasized the need to reduce reliance on oil through investments in alternative energy, reaffirming Brazil’s leadership in the global energy transition. According to Reuters, a potential US-Iran nuclear deal could lift sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports, flooding global markets and threatening China’s independent “teapot” refineries. These small refineries rely heavily on discounted and sanctioned Iranian crude. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.72/bbl and $2.02/bbl respectively.
It’s been a remarkably flat week in Brent. Jul’25 is around $64.00/bbl at the time of writing on 22 May, almost exactly where it was this time last week. But what has changed? It feels like a lot has changed. OPEC+ is considering a major output hike of 411kb/d for July (three times the amount initially planned), matching increases in May and June. Brent gapped up around 60c on Tuesday as CNN reported Israel is getting ready to possibly strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, according to several American officials. This comes at a tense moment, as the Trump administration is still trying to negotiate a diplomatic agreement with Tehran. This report of Israel’s strike on Iran was either not believed or not cared about, likely the former, as nuclear strikes would probably perforate even the most headline-fatigued trader among us. If Brent is the calm and flat body of the swan, the product cracks are the legs frantically kicking underneath it. Margins sold off this week around $1.50/bbl initially but have recovered, with the Euro margin at $8.45/bbl at the time of writing.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract initially climbed to $66.30/bbl at 13:16 BST but retreated throughout the afternoon to $64.97/bbl at17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, the EIA reported that US crude and fuel inventories unexpectedly rose last week. Crude stocks increased by 1.3mb to 443.2 million, contrary to forecast. Crude imports hit a six-week high at 2.58mb/d, while refinery runs and utilization slightly increased. Gasoline stocks grew by 816kb, despite expectations for a decline, and gasoline demand fell to 8.6 mb/d. Distillate stocks also rose by 580kb, just missing expectations. In other news, Continental Resources estimates Turkey’s Diyarbakır Basin holds 6.1 billion barrels of shale oil, equal to 17 years of current imports. A joint venture with Turkey’s TPAO and TransAtlantic Petroleum aims to develop the region, which may also hold up to 20 TCF of gas. South Africa plans to wait for global oil prices to reach around $100/bbl before selling more of its strategic crude reserves, said Godfrey Moagi, CEO of the state-owned South African National Petroleum Company. South Africa aims to generate about 4B rand ($223 million) from reserve sales by March 2026 but will hold off unless prices rise. The nation’s strategic reserves stand at roughly 7.7 mb, with some sales already made to local firms Sasol and TotalEnergies’ local unit. Finally the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.53/bbl and $1.46/bbl respectively.
In our previous report, we anticipated a prolonged period of de‑risking in the Brent/Dubai complex, with prices oscillating within a broad band, and that’s exactly what we’ve seen. Over the past fortnight, the Jun’25 Brent/Dubai crack traded between -$0.25/bbl and +$0.80/bbl, settling at $0.55/bbl as of 20 May. There has been a recent void of trade house positioning in Brent/Dubai, with price action driven by smaller screens and hedging flow. Dubai and Murban spreads were also supported this week, which is consistent with the seasonal rally we typically see in spreads as refinery maintenance winds down and summer fuel demand picks up.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally to $65.65/bbl at 14:21 BST before falling off to $54.94/bbl at 14:51 BST. Prices then bounced back to $65.53/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Kazakhstan’s oil output rose 2% in May to 1.86 mb/d. The increase follows April’s 3% drop but still exceeds the country’s OPEC+ quota of 1.486 mb/d. Kazakhstan blames its repeated overproduction on the difficulty of curbing output from Western-led projects like Tengiz. The energy ministry insists it remains committed to OPEC+ and will offset excess output by 2026 but prioritizes national interests. In other news, Ukraine is urging the G7 to lower the price cap on Russian seaborne oil from $60/bbl to $30/bbl to tighten economic pressure on Moscow, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha said. This comes as the EU and UK announced new sanctions targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet” and financial networks helping it evade existing restrictions. While the EU is considering a revised cap of $50/bbl, Ukraine wants a more aggressive cut. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) warned on Tuesday that an above-average Atlantic hurricane season could disrupt oil production and refining along the Gulf Coast. With around 17 named storms forecast, weather-related shutdowns are increasingly likely. More than 1mb/d of refining capacity, about 5% of US petroleum consumption, could be preemptively halted in the path of major storms. AccuWeather expects 3 to 6 storms to directly hit the US this season, which runs June through November. Finaly, at the time of writing, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.62/bbl and $1.67/bbl respectively.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally all afternoon to $65.95/bbl at 17:35 BST before falling off to $64.42/bbl at 18:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Indonesia is questioning a number Singapore-based trading firms as part of a $12B corruption probe into oil imports by state energy firm Pertamina between 2018 and 2023. Several Pertamina executives have been arrested, and authorities may question the firms in Singapore after failed summonses. Elliott Investment Management, now holding 5% of BP, is pressing for a quick replacement for outgoing Chair Helge Lund to drive a strategic revamp. The activist fund favours candidates with fossil fuel or mining backgrounds to restore investor confidence. BP may also need a new CEO, with former BP exec and current Rolls-Royce CEO Tufan Erginbilgic seen as a strong option. In other news, Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said oil exploration near the mouth of the Amazon River should proceed, but warned it must not delay the country’s shift to clean energy. The region is seen as Brazil’s most promising for new oil discoveries, yet drilling is controversial due to its location in the Amazon basin .Haddad emphasized the need to reduce reliance on oil through investments in alternative energy, reaffirming Brazil’s leadership in the global energy transition. According to Reuters, a potential US-Iran nuclear deal could lift sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports, flooding global markets and threatening China’s independent “teapot” refineries. These small refineries rely heavily on discounted and sanctioned Iranian crude. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.72/bbl and $2.02/bbl respectively.
Turning the vol down Over the week to 13 May, front-month Brent futures rallied to $66.55/bbl, their highest level since 28 April. ICE COT data for that week shows money managers added nearly 50 mb to their net long position,
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The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rangebound between $64.60/bbl and $65.02/bbl in the early afternoon. Prices then rallied to $65.47/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, the first round of talks between Russia and Ukraine conclude. President Zelenskiy dismissed Russia’s terms and coordinated with US President Trump and European leaders for a stronger response. Russia said talks could continue, but President Putin declined a direct meeting with Zelenskiy. In other news, Nigerian oil firm Renaissance Energy has halted production into the Trans Niger Pipeline following an operational incident on May 6 that caused an oil spill in the B-Dere community in Ogoniland. The pipeline has a capacity of around 450kb/d and has now seen two incidents in as many months. China has become the top buyer of Canadian oil shipped through the newly expanded Trans Mountain pipeline. Since full operations began in June 2024, Canada has exported an average of 207kb/d to China via the pipeline, up from just 7kb/d in the previous decade. In contrast, US imports from the pipeline averaged 173kb/d. The US is intensifying efforts to block Iran’s oil exports to China by cracking down on financial and logistical loopholes. According to Bloomberg, US Treasury officials visited Hong Kong in April to warn local banks against facilitating transactions linked to Iranian oil sales, especially those involving front companies and non-dollar currencies. Finally, the front month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.61/bbl and the 6-month spread Jul/Jan’26 is at $1.57/bbl.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Jun’25 Far East propane Index (C3 FEI)
In this edition, we take a look at the Q3’25 Gasoline EBOB Crack.
The Jul’25 Brent futures contract climbed from $65.80/bbl at circa 12:20 BST to $66.50/bbl at 14:55 BST, where it met resistance. Price action attempted to breach this level thrice this afternoon but failed to breach past it, softening to $65.90/bbl at 16:35 BST. Finally, at the time of writing (17:45 BST), the futures contract stands at $66.28/bbl. US crude oil inventories increased by 3.45mb w/w in the week ending 9 May to 441.8mb (15.19mb lower y/y). The EIA also reported a muted 0.19mb build in US gasoline inventories to 225.7mb (-2.27mb y/y) and a 3.16mb decline in distillate fuel oil inventories to 103.6mb (-12.81mb y/y). In other news, a senior executive at Equinor reportedly told Reuters that Europe may need to keep offering attractive price levels to secure an additional 30 billion cubic metres (bcm) of LNG to restock its inventories. Elsewhere, Saudi Aramco has signed 34 preliminary agreements worth as much as $90 billion with major US companies in Saudi Arabia’s attempt to diversify its economy and attract foreign investment. The NOC commented that the agreements comprise LNG, fuels, chemicals, emission-reduction technologies and artifical intelligence. Finally, at the time of writing, the Jul/Aug’25 and Jul/Jan’26 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.49/bbl and $1.48/bbl, respectively.
Prompt Brent futures rallied this week, to the surprise of many, but failed to maintain strength above $66.60/bbl and softened on 14 Weds. EIA inventory stats on 14 May pressured price action with an unexpected 3.5mb jump in US crude inventories, despite forecasts predicting a draw. Prices gapped down further this morning due to renewed hopes for a US-Iran nuclear deal. Iran has signalled it’s open to limiting uranium enrichment in return for the US lifting economic sanctions, a move that’s gaining support from Saudi Arabia, which says it’s hopeful for a positive outcome from the talks. In the US, the stock market opened slightly higher on Wednesday, aiming for new record highs after recovering from its 2025 losses. Nvidia is up over 13% in five days and climbing again, while the “Magnificent 7” are outperforming the S&P 500, signalling renewed momentum and investor appetite for growth. Trump signed a $600 billion Saudi investment deal and a $142 billion US arms package, calling it the largest defence agreement in American history. This roofed US tech stocks this week. As for Brent, it is still seeing the trend of lower highs, as we have seen all year to date. The contract is back in its comfortable low-60s trading range, and the big names are divided as you would expect, with the IEA pegging global demand growth in 2025 at 740kb/d and OPEC projecting an optimistic 1.3 mb/d.
