CFTC - Summary, Positioning Charts Report

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Over the past week, we saw CTA net positioning briefly flip positive, increasing from -31.7k lots on 10 Feb up to 0.1k lots on 12 Feb, however, positioning fell back down to -17.4k lots by 17 Feb. We saw the most bearish positioning in Brent and WTI crude futures this week, sitting at -13.4k lots and -13.3k lots, respectively, as of 17 Feb. Heating oil remained highest on the model with the most bullish positioning fo 9.5k lots on 12 Feb, tapering off to 7.86k lots on 17 Feb. ICE gasoil moved from -3.8k lots to 2.5k lots amid bullish sentiment this week. RBOB positioning was at -3k lots on 10 Feb and briefly touched above flat on 12 Feb, hitting 1.8k lots, but declined to -1k by 17 Feb. Nevertheless, RBOB remains much higher than its monthly low of -11.4k lots on 03 Feb.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Over the past fortnight, we saw CTA net positioning become increasingly bearish and flip negative, falling from around 28.7k lots on 28 Jan down to -31k lots on 10 Jan. Brent futures positioning accounted for the majority of this decline, decreasing around 270% over the fortnight down to -15k lots. Meanwhile, WTI saw a similar trajectory, falling from 6.9k lots on 28 Jan down to -13.7k lots as of 10 Feb. Heating oil positioning remained above 0 while the rest of the products dipped below, with ICE gasoil showing the most bearish net positioning at -3.2k lots on 10 Feb. RBOB was the only futures contract where positioning became more bullish this fortnight, rising around 130% up to -2.8k lots, however, still remains the second lowest on the positioning model.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 31 Jan, we observed CTA buying flows tapering off as they reduced their length. Brent futures saw a 95% decline w/w in CTA net length to 775 lots. WTI futures saw a 110% decline in the same week to -1.9k lots, flipping into the negative handle for the first time since 3 Jan. ICE gasoil also dipped below 0 for the first time since 2 Jan, declining by 107% to -863 lots on 31 Jan. While heating oil saw a 40% decline w/w, net length remained above 0 on 31 Jan, at +12.7k lots. Finally, RBOB noted a 205% decline w/w to -10.9k lots.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 24 Jan, we observed CTA buying flows tapering off as they reduced their length. Net positioning peaked on 17 Jan at 125k lots before falling to 63k lots by 24 Jan. From a product basis, heating oil is currently the most bullish product at 20k lots, as its pace of decline was exceeded by both Brent and WTI. Meanwhile, US gasoline (RBOB) futures remains the weakest segment, as its net position fell below 0 down to -6k lots.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 17 Jan, CTA buying flows accelerated as net positioning rose from 22k lots to 125k lots, reaching the highest level since the peak of 9 April 2024. This highlights the bullish momentum of the futures market, where the influx of CTAs exacerbated the rally in flat price as they deployed length en masse for the first time in nearly a year. Brent and WTI futures are the most bullish products, with net positioning both at 33k. This is followed by Heating Oil and Gasoil, at 30k and 26k, respectively. US Gasoline (RBOB) is the weakest at 4.5k, and has been the most bearish product since early December.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 10 Jan, total CTA net positioning climbed into positive levels for the first time since July 2024, although RBOB futures continue to be net short (despite rising 21% w/w to -11k lots). Brent and WTI futures witnessed a 314% and 1694% rise w/w to 8.3k lots and 11k lots, respectively. The middle distillates complex has seen exemplary changes this week, with gasoil and heating oil noting their net CTA length climb 357% and 208% w/w to 3.7k lots and 10.4k lots, respectively- with the latter perhaps also seeing support from the significant drop in temperatures in Eastern and Southern USA.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 06 Jan saw an increase in net positioning with a rise in bullish sentiment. Net positioning for the total collection of futures climbed from -59k on 9 Dec, flipping positive to 5k by 06 Jan. We have seen that total net positioning has been increasing steadily since the start of December, recorded at -106k on 03 Dec. This week, we saw significant strength across the futures contracts, with WTI seeing a particularly high increase w/w from -10k to 5.6k while Brent followed close behind, increasing from -12k to 1.6k. RBOB futures remained the lowest on the positioning model, moving up from -24k on 31 Dec to -12k by 06 Jan.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 25 Nov saw increasing bullish sentiment as net positioning increased across the major oil futures benchmarks. Total net positioning rose from -118k on 18 Nov to -52k by 25 Nov, the highest level since 16 Oct, with middle distillates leading the way. The product with the most bullish positioning is now ICE gasoil, which surpassed Heating Oil on 18 Nov and rose to -4k by 25 Nov. The lower net positions are shared by RBOB, Brent, and WTI. Overall net positioning has struggled in the second half of this year and has not been positive since mid-July. It remains to be seen if the current increase in bullish positioning can be sustained.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 28 Oct saw a relatively small increase in positioning across the major oil futures benchmarks. Net positioning reached lows of -101k lots on 22 Oct before rising to -806k lots by 28 Oct. The trends were in line with the relatively rangebound flat prices of the futures conctracts, where their 20-day moving averages had generally flattened. Heating Oil currently sees the most bullish positioning at -14k, replacing WTI from the week previous, whilst RBOB gasoline holds the most bearish positioning, at -19.7k lots, replacing gasoil.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 28 Oct saw a relatively small increase in positioning across the major oil futures benchmarks. Net positioning reached lows of -101k lots on 22 Oct before rising to -806k lots by 28 Oct. The trends were in line with the relatively rangebound flat prices of the futures conctracts, where their 20-day moving averages had generally flattened. Heating Oil currently sees the most bullish positioning at -14k, replacing WTI from the week previous, whilst RBOB gasoline holds the most bearish positioning, at -19.7k lots, replacing gasoil.