CFTC - Summary, Positioning Charts Report

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 31 Jan, we observed CTA buying flows tapering off as they reduced their length. Brent futures saw a 95% decline w/w in CTA net length to 775 lots. WTI futures saw a 110% decline in the same week to -1.9k lots, flipping into the negative handle for the first time since 3 Jan. ICE gasoil also dipped below 0 for the first time since 2 Jan, declining by 107% to -863 lots on 31 Jan. While heating oil saw a 40% decline w/w, net length remained above 0 on 31 Jan, at +12.7k lots. Finally, RBOB noted a 205% decline w/w to -10.9k lots.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 24 Jan, we observed CTA buying flows tapering off as they reduced their length. Net positioning peaked on 17 Jan at 125k lots before falling to 63k lots by 24 Jan. From a product basis, heating oil is currently the most bullish product at 20k lots, as its pace of decline was exceeded by both Brent and WTI. Meanwhile, US gasoline (RBOB) futures remains the weakest segment, as its net position fell below 0 down to -6k lots.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 17 Jan, CTA buying flows accelerated as net positioning rose from 22k lots to 125k lots, reaching the highest level since the peak of 9 April 2024. This highlights the bullish momentum of the futures market, where the influx of CTAs exacerbated the rally in flat price as they deployed length en masse for the first time in nearly a year. Brent and WTI futures are the most bullish products, with net positioning both at 33k. This is followed by Heating Oil and Gasoil, at 30k and 26k, respectively. US Gasoline (RBOB) is the weakest at 4.5k, and has been the most bearish product since early December.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 10 Jan, total CTA net positioning climbed into positive levels for the first time since July 2024, although RBOB futures continue to be net short (despite rising 21% w/w to -11k lots). Brent and WTI futures witnessed a 314% and 1694% rise w/w to 8.3k lots and 11k lots, respectively. The middle distillates complex has seen exemplary changes this week, with gasoil and heating oil noting their net CTA length climb 357% and 208% w/w to 3.7k lots and 10.4k lots, respectively- with the latter perhaps also seeing support from the significant drop in temperatures in Eastern and Southern USA.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 06 Jan saw an increase in net positioning with a rise in bullish sentiment. Net positioning for the total collection of futures climbed from -59k on 9 Dec, flipping positive to 5k by 06 Jan. We have seen that total net positioning has been increasing steadily since the start of December, recorded at -106k on 03 Dec. This week, we saw significant strength across the futures contracts, with WTI seeing a particularly high increase w/w from -10k to 5.6k while Brent followed close behind, increasing from -12k to 1.6k. RBOB futures remained the lowest on the positioning model, moving up from -24k on 31 Dec to -12k by 06 Jan.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 25 Nov saw increasing bullish sentiment as net positioning increased across the major oil futures benchmarks. Total net positioning rose from -118k on 18 Nov to -52k by 25 Nov, the highest level since 16 Oct, with middle distillates leading the way. The product with the most bullish positioning is now ICE gasoil, which surpassed Heating Oil on 18 Nov and rose to -4k by 25 Nov. The lower net positions are shared by RBOB, Brent, and WTI. Overall net positioning has struggled in the second half of this year and has not been positive since mid-July. It remains to be seen if the current increase in bullish positioning can be sustained.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 28 Oct saw a relatively small increase in positioning across the major oil futures benchmarks. Net positioning reached lows of -101k lots on 22 Oct before rising to -806k lots by 28 Oct. The trends were in line with the relatively rangebound flat prices of the futures conctracts, where their 20-day moving averages had generally flattened. Heating Oil currently sees the most bullish positioning at -14k, replacing WTI from the week previous, whilst RBOB gasoline holds the most bearish positioning, at -19.7k lots, replacing gasoil.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 28 Oct saw a relatively small increase in positioning across the major oil futures benchmarks. Net positioning reached lows of -101k lots on 22 Oct before rising to -806k lots by 28 Oct. The trends were in line with the relatively rangebound flat prices of the futures conctracts, where their 20-day moving averages had generally flattened. Heating Oil currently sees the most bullish positioning at -14k, replacing WTI from the week previous, whilst RBOB gasoline holds the most bearish positioning, at -19.7k lots, replacing gasoil.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 28 Oct saw a relatively small increase in positioning across the major oil futures benchmarks. Net positioning reached lows of -101k lots on 22 Oct before rising to -806k lots by 28 Oct. The trends were in line with the relatively rangebound flat prices of the futures conctracts, where their 20-day moving averages had generally flattened. Heating Oil currently sees the most bullish positioning at -14k, replacing WTI from the week previous, whilst RBOB gasoline holds the most bearish positioning, at -19.7k lots, replacing gasoil.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks, employing a trend following model that uses price data and realized volatility. The week ending 08 Oct saw CTA positioning pick up significantly, after remaining relatively flat for the previous week. There was a net increase of nearly 106mb in combined futures between 01 and 07 Oct, with the rate of growth in CTA positioning slightly slowing towards the end of the week. In crude, we saw net positioning in Brent increase from -37.2mb to -10mb, the largest jump in CTA net positioning across all futures contracts for the week to 08 Oct. Meanwhile, WTI showed a similar pattern, increasing from around -32.1mb to just under -9.7mb over the week. The product’s net positioning all recovered after falling the previous week, including RBOB with the lowest net positioning, increasing from -43.4mb up to -24.1mb by 08 Oct.