James Brodie
Head of Learning & Development, Flux
Treasuries Slip, Earnings Season Strongest Since 2011, Gold vs AI
US yields rise as growth strengthens, while equities fall. Record QQQ inflows and China’s gold buying highlight ongoing risk rotation.
Treasuries slipped Friday, led by short-dated notes, after data from S&P Global showed business activity grew at its fastest pace in more than 4 years.
2 yr yields jumped 5bp, 10-year closes at cycle highs 4.21%, 30’s back at 5.27%, gold rallies another 2.%% since Friday open, while the S&P slipped another 0.9%.
This earnings season is the strongest since 2011 - nearly 64% of S&P 500 companies beat guidance, with earnings growth running at +31% YoY - but at 21x forward earnings, that strength is already priced in. As growth inevitably normalizes and comparisons get tougher, the scope for further multiple expansion narrows even as fundamentals stay exceptional. (Bloomberg)
The Nasdaq 100 ETF, QQQ, has attracted +$10.9 billion in inflows so far in August, now on track for its largest monthly inflow on record. Investors are rotating from semiconductors and software into the broader tech sector. With semiconductor ETF outflows -$2.8 bio month-to date, and software ETF -$610 mio.
Treasuries now offer more income than almost every S&P 500 stock: Just ~3% of S&P 500 stocks now have dividend yields higher than the 10Y Treasury Note yield, the lowest proportion since May 2007. This marks one of the lowest readings on record in data going back to the early 1970s…… The problem is bonds are going down. For now! (Source, S&P Capital IQ Copustat)
Got gold? China acquired +40 tonnes of gold in June via the London OTC market, marking their 2nd-largest monthly purchase since early 2025.
Compare this to AI. (Bloomberg, Tavi Costa)
Nvidia and Oracle CDS hit new highs. (Bloomberg, @PPGMacro)
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