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Breaking! Christine Lagarde to leave the ECB before her term ends in October 2027.
UK unemployment ticks up to 5.2%, above expectations and the highest since February 2021.
After Friday’s inflation data and dovish Fed speak the US yield curve fell 5bp with 2-year yields sitting right on the lows since August 2022. (Chart 1, Bloomberg).
M1 Henry Hub sub-$3/MMBtu, 4-month lows.
Brent – Fund net positioning at its highest since the week to 01 Apr 2025 +2.55% w/w. Long positions from these players are at their highest in over a year.
For over 3 years AI was the engine driving record-breaking stock rallies, now it’s the disruptor.
Much stronger US payrolls data saw yields jump (2-year up +6bp) as the survey showed 130k new payrolls, well above 65k consensus (higher than 78/80 economists in Bloomberg’s survey predicted), with the unemployment rate unexpectedly falling to 4.3%.
Commodities rally and the dollar fell on weak Chinese inflation data (CPI +0.2% YoY, PPI -1.4% YoY), weaker US data (retail sales data, Employment cost index and the Atlanta Fed).
With last weeks delayed payroll data set to be released on Wednesday Fed members are already lowering expectations (median estimate +70k, high +135k & low -10k, with 4.4% unemployment).
Fridays equity rally (S&P500 +1.9%, DJIA above 50k for the first time ever) was a simple short squeeze as US hedge funds shorted single stocks last week at the fastest pace since the 2020 crisis.
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