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EQUITIES
The Nasdaq closed at an all-time high for a 12th consecutive session (Chart 1 Bloomberg) - an occurrence seen only four times in history, representing an approximately 11-sigma move.
The S&P rallies to within 0.5% of a new all-time high as shorts get squeezed, it’s up 9.83% in the past 10 trading days, for the best 10-day gain since coming off the COVID lows in March 2020.
With rumours of new U.S.-Iran negotiations on Thursday equities rallied 1% from the open as CTAs shorts continued stopping out.
Markets are sleepwalking into a supply shock that will rewrite the macro landscape
De-escalation coming? The market reacted wildly: Brent down nearly 15% (Chart 1, Flux), TTF gas -18%, while German power -5% and is below pre-war levels.
The market is treating this as smaller than the April 2025 tariff tantrum. That's wrong.
Market optimism evaporates as Trump says strikes on Iran to last another 2-3 weeks. Emini S&P 500 futures dropped 1.3% early this morning, gold fell to near $4,550/oz and 10-year Treasury yield rose to almost 4.4%.
Headlines hinting at Middle East deescalations and Market sources have indicating that Trump 'is pulling out,' amidst a clear loss of support from key European states and a widening economic toll on the world sent risk soaring.
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