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Latest energy market news from the Flux team

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Heads of Desk: Top of Mind – Episode 56

The heads of Onyx Commodities' trading desks discuss the latest in the Oil Derivatives as of 14 July 2026
  • Listen to what's going on in Dubai, Fuel, Distillates, Propane, Gasoline, and Options this week
  • This episode was recorded on Tuesday, 14th July 2026.
14 July 2026

Missile Strikes Continue, Hawkish Fed, Rhine’s Kaud Chokepoint at Lows

Oil surges on US-Iran tensions. Markets rotate into energy as yields rise, tech weakens, and Rhine drought disrupts logistics.

Energy prices spiked again. More missile strikes overnight between US-Iran, Donald Trump reinstating the blockade of the Straits and demanding a 20% fee on all cargoes shipped through the waterway, plus missile strikes between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia restart after 4 years ‘peace’.

14 July 2026

US-Iran Strikes Continue Overnight, FOMC Minutes Lean Hawkish

Stocks rally on Trump deal comments, Fed stays hawkish, China CPI misses, AI cash flows weaken, and fund manager cash hits record lows.

Markets Overnight After another night of U.S. and Iranian bombing, equities rallied on comments from Trump, who claimed "Iran called a little while ago, they want to make a deal" (which Iran denied).

9 July 2026

US Strikes Iran, KOSPI Breaks Support, Chinese Real Estate Collapses

US strikes Iran; Brent +6%, stocks fall, yields and USD rise, while AI and broader market fragility remain in focus.

So 17 minutes after the NYSE closes the U.S. strikes 80 targets in Iran, strikes were 4 to 5 times larger than the round 10 days ago, per a U.S. official.

8 July 2026

Heads of Desk: Top of Mind – Episode 55

The heads of Onyx Commodities' trading desks discuss the latest in the Oil Derivatives as of 07 July 2026
  • Listen to what's going on in Dated, Fuel, Distillates, Naphtha, Propane, and Margins this week
  • This episode was recorded on Tuesday, 7th July 2026.
7 July 2026

Samsung’s Extraordinary Profit Increase, FX Positioning Gets Crowded, COMEX

Strong earnings fail to lift stocks as positioning dominates; yields rise, USD longs crowd, and credit stress builds.

GOOD EARNINGS. BAD REACTION. THE MARKET IS CHANGING.

7 July 2026

AI CapEx Booms, BofA Bull/Bear Indicator Hits 9.5, Upcoming Data

AI CapEx surges toward 3% of GDP, gold reserves rise, BofA flashes sell signal, US labour weakens ahead of key data.

AI CapEx from Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle is set to hit ~2.5% of US GDP in 2026 (up from 1.5% in 2025), nearing defense spending (~2.7%).

6 July 2026

USD Continues to Weaken, Gold Stands Out, Gilts Modestly Softer

Weak US jobs cooled Fed hike bets, USD slipped, gold rallied, while JPY stayed in focus amid intervention warnings.

The USD continues to weaken from recent highs, as rate hike expectations are tempered.

3 July 2026

Impending Fed Pivot, US Investors Deviate, Global Disinflation Broadens

Fed pivot nears as inflation cools. Crowded USD longs may unwind, supporting gold while markets overprice rate hikes.

THE FED PIVOT IS CLOSER THAN THE MARKET THINKS - AND THE DOLLAR'S RALLY IS ABOUT TO CRACK

2 July 2026

Precious Metals Decline, Worst Month for Microsoft Since 2000, S&P500 Gamma Collapse

Gold, silver and Bitcoin extend losses as AI drives market divergence, while sentiment remains stretched and volatility risks rise.

Precious metals continue their bear market with gold -29%, silver -53% and Bitcoin also down 54% from their respective highs.

1 July 2026

Heads of Desk: Top of Mind – Episode 54

The heads of Onyx Commodities' trading desks discuss the latest in the Oil Derivatives as of 30 June 2026
  • Listen to what's going on in Margins, Brent/Dubai, Fuel, Distillates, Gasoline, Naphtha, and Propane this week
  • This episode was recorded on Tuesday, 30th June 2026.
30 June 2026

Chinese PMI Bounces, Global Supply Chain Under Pressure

China PMIs improve as yen hits 1986 low; tech sells off, margin debt hits record, and global supply chain pressures rise.

Chinese PMIs bounce, manufacturing to 50.3 from 50, and services to 50.2 from 50.1.

30 June 2026

Brent Declines as Trump Cancels 20% Fee

Brent eases as Trump confirms Iran shipping blockade. China imports slump, while Brazil and Nigeria adjust fuel policies.
14 July 2026

Open Hormuz, Close Hormuz

Renewed US-Iran hostilities lift front Dubai spreads out of contango; selling flows focused in Q4 Brent/Dubai
14 July 2026

Feeling The Pressure

Dated Brent stays under pressure as buy-side remains absent. CFDs sold heavily, while paper rallies faded after short covering.
14 July 2026

Brent rallies to $86.90

US-Iran conflict escalates with fresh strikes, shipping attacks and Hormuz blockade; OPEC cuts 2026 demand outlook, Venezuela output steady.
14 July 2026

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Latest Reports

Reversals (almost) all around!

Bullish strength and momentum in all but RBOB
9 page report
14 July 2026

Brent Rises As Trump Reinstates Blockade

Brent rises as US-Iran tensions escalate. OPEC cuts 2026 demand outlook, while Nigeria output and global fuel security efforts grow.
13 July 2026

CFTC Weekly: Risk on in Products

Outright length in Brent lowest since December
13 page report
13 July 2026

Mind the Arb

This week, we look at trades in Crude and Gasoline swaps.
9 page report
13 July 2026