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With last weeks delayed payroll data set to be released on Wednesday Fed members are already lowering expectations (median estimate +70k, high +135k & low -10k, with 4.4% unemployment).
Fridays equity rally (S&P500 +1.9%, DJIA above 50k for the first time ever) was a simple short squeeze as US hedge funds shorted single stocks last week at the fastest pace since the 2020 crisis.
More aggressive deleveraging, Bitcoin -14% (and it’s first ever $10k daily decline, and a 5.6 standard deviation move), Ethereum -18%, Solana -25%, silver -19.6% (including crypto forced selling of precious metal assets), uranium -8.5%.
Consistently stronger data suggest U.S. rates should be higher, next Fed governor Warsh will have trouble cutting rates and the 47bp of cuts priced by the OIS market for 2026 looks too much.
Very strong U.S. data sends short end yields and the dollar higher.
After Friday’s precious metals historic crash (silver down -26%, down -35% at one stage), gold down 9%, platinum down -18%, palladium down -15%, the markets have opened today weaker across the board.
Risk is reversing hard on the news Kevin Warsh, the most hawkish candidate, will likely be announced today as the new Fed Chair by Donald Trump (Polymarket jumped to 88%).
Weather-wise, looking at weekly mean anomalies for next week, temperatures are still expected to be colder than normal in key regions in the East, which should be supportive of heating demand.
The rally continues with industrial commodities back at the party.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Iran has rejected the Trump administration’s terms.
A senior Iranian official says Tehran will not compromise on “its right to continue enriching uranium for civilian purposes and to maintain its missile arsenal, which is essential for its defence.”
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