Mita Chaturvedi
Research Associate, Flux
Brent Surges Past $107/bbl
US President Donald Trump has said he will not set a "timetable" for ending the conflict and that he wants to make "a great deal"....
The Jun'26 Brent futures contract initially softened from nearly $107/bbl at 02:35 BST to $105.10/bbl at 07:10 BST, but recovered these losses and stands at $107.25/bbl at 11:05 BST (time of writing). US President Donald Trump has said he will not set a "timetable" for ending the conflict and that he wants to make "a great deal" with Tehran....
Goldman Sachs has said that 14.5mb of Gulf crude oil production(57% of pre-war supply) was offline in April, although this was reportedly largely due to precautionary shutdowns and stock management rather than physical damage. Thus, the bank stated in a research note that a safe and sustained reopening of the Strait, in the absence of renewed attacks on oil infrastructure, would allow production to return relatively quickly, supported by spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Still, they said that logistics and well performance will constrain any recovery. Moreover, empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has dropped by 130mb, which may limit the flow of exports once they resume. Indonesia will import 150 mb of Russian crude oil in 2026, according to Deputy Energy Minister Yuliot Tanjung, with the total LPG volume yet to be decided. This announcement comes a week after Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Indonesia is also seeking to secure crude oil and LPG from other countries, including the United States. Meanwhile, Italy's Eni nearly doubled its share buyback to 2.8 billion euros ($3.27 billion). The company improved its 2026 cash flow guidance on Friday, in line with expectations of a long-lasting impact of the Iran war on oil and gas prices. Finally, workers at Inpex’s Ichthys 9.3 million metric-ton-a-year liquefied natural gas facility in Australia have voted in favour of strike action over pay and conditions. Workers at the facility may theoretically commence strike action from 07 May, though the union group Offshore Alliance has said it has agreed to hold off on any action until 15 May while the two sides engage in 6 days of talks. Australia is Japan's largest LNG supplier. At the time of writing, the Jun/Jul'26 and Jun/Dec'26 Brent futures contracts stand at $6.25/bbl and $21.30/bbl, respectively.
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