Brent Rallies Despite Increase in Iraqi Exports

In the news, Iraq's oil exports have averaged more than 3.4mb/d so far in October, Oil Minister Bassem Mohammed Khudair told state news agency INA today, putting them near the 3.3-3.5mb/d shipped before the Strait of Hormuz closed. The figure marks a jump of about 750kb/d from September's average. Khudair said Iraq now exports through three routes: the Strait of Hormuz, Ceyhan, and tanker trucks through Syria, with the first trucks carrying Iraqi crude expected to reach a Mediterranean port by mid-October. Elsewhere, Turkey’s Energy Minister, Alparslan Bayraktar, said that the nation has secured a share of the Russian diesel now heading to global markets under the US-Russia supply deal. He described the arrangement as a boost to Turkey's energy security. Bayraktar said Moscow had curbed diesel exports after running into domestic supply problems, and that Turkey's own talks led to an allocation of the volumes now being released. He gave no further details. In other news, Venezuela anticipates close to $76B in oil investment over the next five years from newly signed agreements, acting President Delcy Rodriguez has stated, noting that a bilateral accord with the US includes plans to drill 250 rigs. The US deal covers 17 oil fields and is part of a wider package of 61 agreements signed by both sides. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’27) and 6-month (Dec/Jun’27) Brent futures spreads are at $3.26/bbl and $14.06/bbl, respectively.

More volume this afternoon, with the Dated complex firming sharply as the prompt squeezed into the window. Balmo DFL traded up from $3.50/bbl to $5.15/bbl, with Nov DFL following from $4.70/bbl to $5.25/bbl by the end of the window despite selling, and it kept going after to $6.00/bbl. The Nov/Dec DFL roll firmed from $0.63/bbl to $1.05/bbl at the window and $1.25/bbl since, despite real selling at $0.69/bbl and $0.75/bbl earlier. Oct/Nov Dated firmed from $10.90/bbl to $11.10/bbl into the window, where it was sold.

On the physical Side, 2 majors and a producer were offering 3 cargoes across the curve in Midland, lowering the physical differential by $3 during the window.
In the days market, the 09-13 Nov CFD was bought at $6.00/bbl at the end of the window and 26-30 Oct v 02-06 Nov at flat. 02-06 v 09-13 Nov traded up to $1.05/bbl from $0.80/bbl this morning; 04-10 Nov v Nov was bought at $1.40/bbl, and 19-20 v 26-27 Oct was sold at $1.18/bbl and has firmed since.

Lacklustre trading in Dubai today. Overall, we saw slightly better selling in Brent/Dubai from physical hedgers.

It was a quiet afternoon in fuel, after weakening this morning, Sing 0.5 cracks traded slightly higher, while spreads traded at similar levels to this morning. Euro 0.5 price action was very similar to Sing 0.5. Nov/Dec'26 Sing traded up from $30.00/mt to $30.75/mt before trading down to $30.50/mt where it traded in the window, Dec/Jan'27 traded up from $29.25/mt to $30.25/mt in very low volume. Nov'26 Sing crack traded as low as $24.75/mt this morning, but it rebounded to $25.30/bbl in the early afternoon and consistently traded around this level, Dec'26 Sing crack traded between $23.30/bbl and $23.40/bbl. Euro spreads saw little price action with Nov/Dec'26 and Dec/Jan'27 trading at $15.00/mt and $13.50/mt respectively. Nov'26 Euro crack traded up from $1.40/bbl to $1.80/bbl, it briefly traded down to $1.55/bbl before bouncing to $1.70/bbl in the window, post window it sold off to $1.40/bbl.

After an aggressive sell-off this morning, 380 complex saw some buying in the early afternoon. Nov/Dec'26 traded up from a low of $56.25/mt this morning to $58.00/mt where it traded for the majority of the afternoon and the window, Dec/Jan'27 continued to trade at $39.00/mt. Nov'26 380 crack was bid up on screen from $11.85/bbl to $12.45/bbl before selling back down to $11.85/bbl, it then traded in a choppy manner between $11.75/bbl and $12.15/bbl, Dec'26 380 crack was quite illiquid but ultimately traded up 35c to $5.85/bbl. Barge complex remained very thin, spreads came off slightly towards the window with Nov/Dec'26 and Dec/Jan'27 both trading down 75c to $21.00/mt and $19.50/mt, respectively. Nov'26 Barge crack was better offered this afternoon quickly trading down from -$7.80/bbl to -$8.75/bbl at the start of the window; it continued to trade lower post-window and last traded at -$9.00/bbl, Nov'26 380 E/W has rebounded from $125.00/mt to $132.50/mt.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw decent sell-side interest in the front, with Nov/Dec well offered between $3.05/bbl and $3.15/bbl, pushing the Nov/Dec box below -$21/bbl. E/W also saw sell-side interest in the front, hit down to -$133.50/mt, while Q4'27 saw buying up to -$56/mt. Kero spreads saw sell-side in the deferred, with Apr/Oct hit down to $19.30/mt, as Nov regrade was well bid, trading from $1.00/bbl up to $1.20/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads firmed overall, with Nov/Dec trading from $37.50/mt up to $39/mt, while Dec cracks rallied from $80.50/bbl up to $81.20/bbl. European jet diffs were better offered in the front, with Nov hit from $115/mt down to $113/mt.

This afternoon in gasoline, mixed interest in MOC with the Nov'26 EBOB crack getting lifted $23.00/bbl end of window by a small trade, with Nov/Dec'26 EBOB trading $53.00/mt end of window. Sell-side interest this afternoon in March'27 and Q4'27 arbs, seeing Q4'27 arbs stepping down to $19.00/bbl with selling in March'27 arb down from $40.70/bbl to $39.40/bbl from a trade.

This afternoon in naphtha was weaker overall, with MOC quiet and higher Brent weighing on cracks rolls through the window. NWE naphtha softened from the morning, with Nov'26 cracks moving from -$4.10/bbl to -$4.65/bbl, whilst Jan'27 finished at -$5.45/bbl and Cal'27 at -$7.95/bbl; the Nov/Dec'26 crack roll eased to $0.60/bbl, with Dec/Jan'27 at $.15/bbl, and Q1/Q2'27 down to $1.95/bbl. Spreads were thin, with Nov/Dec'26 at $31.50/mt and Dec/Jan'27 slipping from $21.25/mt early afternoon to $20.25/mt post-window. E/W remained offered in the front, with Nov'26 easing from $76.50/mt this morning to $74.50/mt post-window, while Cal'27 and Cal'28 traded at $42.00/mt and $26.00/mt, respectively. MOPJ also weakened, with Nov'26 falling from around $4.50/bbl this morning to $3.60/bbl on a flat-price basis, and the Nov/Dec'26 crack roll down to $0.90/bbl; while spreads were illiquid in the window after Nov/Dec'26 softened to $34.50/mt and Dec/Jan'27 to $30.00/mt earlier.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI spreads sold off with Nov/Dec'26 FEI trading at $39.00/mt at the US open before falling to $37.00/mt later in the afternoon. There was also trading in long-end FEI with Q1/Q2'27 FEI trading at $116.00/mt and Q2/Q3'27 FEI trading at $50.00/mt. As a function of weaker FEI, FEI/CP was weak this afternoon, with Nov'26 FEI/CP selling off the hardest, trading at $219.00/mt by the European close compared to $229.50/mt pre-US window and $225.00/mt at the end of the US window.

FEI/MOPJs were also implied weaker through FEI. Q1'27 FEI/MOPJ traded at $-$42.00/mt before printing $-$47.00/mt into the European close. The Cal28 FEI/MOPJ also traded at -$78.00/mt before falling to -$79.00/mt.

The Arb was strong this afternoon. The Nov'26 LST/FEI traded at -$365.00/mt during the European window up $14.00/mt from -$379.00/mt traded this morning. There was also buying interest in the Q1'27 arb trading at -$297.00/mt up from -$300.00/mt this morning.

LST structure was firm this afternoon, with Nov/Dec'26 LST trading at 1.625c/gal before trading back to 1.50c/gal, same as pre-US open.

There was also US tradehouse interest in the Dec/Jan'27/Feb'27 and Jan/Feb'27/Mar'27 LST flies which traded at 3.375c/gal and 3.75c/gal, respectively. In the long end, Q1/Q2'27 LST was stronger this afternoon trading at 10.125c/gal before rising to 10.375c/gal to close. Butane Structure was firm this afternoon trading at 7.875c/gal in Nov/Dec'26 C4 ENT. Dec/Jan'27 C4 ENT also traded at 7.25c/gal briefly trading at 7.375c/gal.

There was some Bank selling of Q1'27 C4/C3 ENT trading at 42.50c/gal before printing 42.625c/gal to close.