Brent rises to $111/bbl on Middle East supply disruption fears

During the meeting with Pakistan’s army chief, Major General Mohsen Rezaei’s (Iran Supreme National Security Council) said that Iran will not move any enriched nuclear material out of the country, and that Iran will not enter negotiations with the US until Washington takes concrete steps to build trust and meet Iran’s prerequisite conditions. The UK government has approved the development of Jackdaw gasfield in the North Sea, 150 miles east of Aberdeen. United Airlines forecast weaker-than-expected earnings for Q4’26 due to soaring jet fuel prices, expecting adjusted Q4 earnings of $0.50 to $1.50 a share, below the $1.88 analysts had anticipated. US refiner P66 has locked out 385 union-represented workers from its 257kb/d Bayway refinery, as contract negotiations fell through between the company and Teamster’s union. Kalshi has filed with the CFTC for voluntary approval of WTIPERP, a never-expiring perpetual contract tracking front-month Nymex WTI, which would be the first energy perpetual authorised in the US. Indian Oil Corp (IOC) plans to cut its Middle Eastern oil purchases under annual deals in 2027/28 as the Iran war has created uncertainty for supplies from the region. Russia will dispatch its first tanker with diesel for the United States on Thursday, carrying 40kt of the fuel, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said. Finally, the Dec/Jan’27 and Dec/Jun’27 Brent futures spreads are at $3.68/bbl and $15.24/bbl respectively.

Busy morning, with the Dated complex extending yesterday’s rally and the strength concentrated in the prompt. Nov DFL firmed from $6.85 to $7.10/bbl in size, around 35c above last night’s close, while Dec DFL eased from $4.98 to $4.90 before a block traded $5.01, last $4.95/bbl, pushing the Nov/Dec DFL roll up to $2.00/bbl. Jan DFL firmed from $3.53 to $3.65/bbl, while Dec/Jan DFL dipped to $1.28 and is back at $1.43/bbl. Nov/Dec Dated was bid from $5.15 to $5.45/bbl in size, where real sellers stepped in, and Dec/Jan Dated followed from $3.71 to $3.79, last $3.75/bbl. Further down the curve, Q1'27 DFL firmed from $2.97 to $3.06/bbl, Feb DFL traded $3.01/bbl in size, Cal'27 traded $2.03/bbl in blocks and Mar/Apr DFL $0.28/bbl in 500 lots. In the days market, the 28-30 Oct CFD traded $7.00/bbl in size, 02-08 Dec firmed from $109.25 to $109.60/bbl in blocks, and we saw real buying of 04-10 Dec v Dec at $1.12/bbl.

This morning in Brent/Dubai we traded rangebound, opening at -$2.94/bbl and trading down to -$3.02/bbl early on. We rallied into the window, spiking up to -$2.35/bbl, with refiner buying of Dec B/D around -$2.18/bbl. Post window we were choppy, with Dec B/D both bid and offered between -$2.52/bbl to -$2.47/bbl and smalls selling of Nov B/D around -$2.66/bbl. Trade house on offer, refiner on bid side. The Nov finished around -$2.73/bbl. The Dubai spreads also traded rangebound between $3.52/bbl to $3.67/bbl and finishing towards the bottom of this range. The boxes were quiet, the Nov/Dec box trading between -$0.33/bbl to -$0.18/bbl, and the Dec/Jan box gapping lower to around -$0.17/bbl. OTC interest remained very low.

380 complex strengthened this morning after aggressively selling off yesterday, Nov/Dec 380 was bid up from $48.00/mt to $50.00/mt by window open, it traded up to $52.00/mt before retracing to $51.00/mt, Dec/Jan traded up a dollar to $34.00/mt by window open and was then bid up to $36.50/mt post window. Nov 380 crack opened at $7.00/bbl and despite getting offered down on screen to $6.80/bbl in the window it has been bid up as high as $7.80/bbl post window, Dec 380 crack initially traded down 50c to $2.00/bbl before getting steadily bid back up to $3.00/bbl. Barge spreads strengthend with Nov/Dec and Dec/Jan trading up 75c to $20.50/bbl and $19.75/bbl respectively, Nov Barge crack was gappy but ultimately strengthened from -$10.20/bbl to -$9.50/bbl.

Sing 0.5 was weaker this morning with Nov/Dec selling down from $29.25/mt to $27.50/mt pre window, it then rallied back to $28.25/mt in the window, Dec/Jan similarly sold off from $30.50/mt to $29.50/mt before getting bid back up to $30.00/mt in the window. Nov Sing crack was offered down on screen from $24.50/bbl to $23.50/bbl before getting bid back up to $24.00/bbl in the lead up to the window, Dec Sing crack was resilient trading between $22.70/bbl and $22.80/bbl. Liquidty tightened up again in Euro 0.5 this morning, Nov/Dec traded up 50c to $14.50/mt post window while Nov Euro crack was better bid trading up from $0.30/bbl to $0.65/bbl in low volume, Nov 0.5 E/W traded at $149.00/mt.

This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw selling on higher ICE, with Dec/Jan trading from $4.7 up to $4.8/bbl. EW was well bid in Dec, trading from -$101 up to -$96/mt, while Q1 rallied from -$90 up to -$85/mt. Kero spreads were well offered in 2027, with Jan/Feb hit at $4.85/bbl and Feb/Mar hit at $5.3/bbl. Prompt ICE gasoil spreads rallied, with Nov/Dec trading from $49.0 up to $54.5/mt, while Dec cracks traded rangebound around $81.5/bbl.

This morning in Gasoline, quiet morning in terms of MOC with Nov slightly better bid. EW rallies on the back of EBOB weakness, seeing Nov EW trade up to -$0.6/bbl in nov but comes off post window to -$1.5/bbl, with buying in Dec EW at -$2/bbl. EBOB opens weaker with Nov/Dec EBOB getting sold down to $37.75/mt with the prompt crack trading down to $18.5/bbl, with selling in Q1 EBOB down to $19.15/bbl, with some recovery post window. with the Q1/Q2 EBOB crack roll finding some buying from small trade -$6.3/bbl.

$1/bbl. Spreads were thin, with Nov/Dec unchanged at $36/mt after being bid at $37/mt early, Dec/Jan up from $30/mt to $31/mt and Jan/Feb at $27.50/mt. E/W weakened sharply, with Nov down from $71.50/mt last night to $67/mt and Dec falling from $67.50/mt pre-window to $65/mt, while Q2 + Q4 27 were at $41.50/mt + $30/mt respectively. NWE naphtha also softened, with Nov cracks down from -$4.80/bbl last night to -$5.50/bbl, Q1 from -$6.20/bbl to -$6.40/bbl and Cal'27 trading at -$8/bbl early on; the Nov/Dec crack roll fell from $0.70/bbl to $0.45/bbl, with spreads extremely thin in Europe, although Nov/Dec traded at $33.5/mt post window.

This morning in NGLs. FEI spreads continued to sell off opening around $34.5/mt before falling to $33/mt to close. Dec/Jan FEI also declined trading $35/mt before declining to $32/mt by the close. The Dec/Dec FEI sold off also trading at $233/mt pre window before trading at $320/mt during the window. FEI/CP was also weak with Nov FEI/CP trading at $198/mt down from $201/mt pre window. Dec FEI/CP traded at $175/mt for most of the window before stepping down to $171/mt to close. There was some buying of Q1 FEI/CP at $138/mt. FEI/MOPJ was weaker this morning with Q1 FEI/MOPJ trading at -$52/mt and -$53/mt which was down from -$44/mt traded yesterday. The Arb continued to be supported with Nov LST/FEI trading at -$320/mt before stepping up to -$316/mt during the window. Dec LST/FEI was firm at -$290/mt having briefly stepped down to -$291/mt where Major was buying. Q1 LST/FEI also saw major buying at -$258/mt. Nov FEI was trading $923/mt on screen to close.

* US pending home sales hit a record low in September as high mortgage rates hurt demand. The NAR index dropped 7.3% to its lowest since records began in 2001, a bigger fall than any Bloomberg-surveyed economist expected. The West fell 9.2% and the South, the largest region, 8.2%. Meanwhile housing starts also fell, down 5.2% to their lowest since May 2020.

* Netflix stock extends losses to over -6% after reporting weaker than expected guidance. This puts the stock down -52% from its all-time high.

* Billionaire Ken Griffin warns investors are “almost certainly” in an AI bubble, as companies struggle to turn massive AI spending into measurable productivity gains.

* Oracle CDS now over 24% default probability.

* Anthropic recorded a staggering $80,000,000,000.00 net loss in the first half of 2026.

* Credit Default Swaps for Oracle, Broadcom, and Nvidia continue to widen out, with Oracle at a 23% default probability, Nvidia at about 8%, and Broadcom at 12%. Amazing, given these are among the largest companies in the world.