Brent Strengthens as Russian Exports Fall 50% Y/Y

In the news, Russia's seaborne oil product exports rose 16.4% m/m in August to 4.57Mmt, as some domestic refineries completed unplanned maintenance, according to Reuters. Compared to a year ago, however, fuel exports have fallen 50%, hit by relentless Ukrainian drone attacks on key refineries and port infrastructure this year, plus a diesel export ban. In Syria, the nation will offer cheaper diesel, Energy Minister Mohammed al-Bashir has said, days after a fuel price hike sparked the most widespread protests since Bashar al-Assad's fall. Bashir has stated that diesel would now be sold at three tiers — 115, 150, and 175 Syrian pounds per litre — depending on specification and use. Elsewhere, shipowners have already ordered more than twice as many supertankers this year as in all of 2025, a buying spree worth over $20 billion — the biggest in at least 25 years — as the US-Iran war redraws trade routes and boosts demand for long-haul crude shipments. Data shows 217 VLCCs ordered so far in 2026, versus 93 last year. In other news, Alberta plans to announce a new preferential royalty framework in November to encourage investment in new oil and gas production, Premier Danielle Smith said at an industry event. Since the province owns 81% of mineral rights, the Alberta government sets the conditions and royalties for resource development. Alberta's push to boost oil output and export more crude to Asia has driven a proposed new 1mb/d pipeline to the British Columbia coast, expected to receive federal approval as a project of national interest. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May’27) Brent futures contracts are at $4.45/bbl and $17.37/bbl, respectively.

Extremely choppy afternoon in Dated with Chinese smashing Oct/Nov'26 Dated before some buying finally emerged, led by a trade house as we entered the window. Pre window, we saw strong buying 5-9 Oct vs Cal Oct'26 at $3.35/bbl. In the paper window we saw strong Midland bids from a trade Europe pushing up the diff again, of which two cargos were sold by a trade and major, as well as one Forties cargo trade. In the paper window we saw paper buying of 21-25 Sep'26 CFD and 5-9 Oct'26 CFD with prompt Oct'26 rolls getting pushed back up having been smashed this morning with strong 28-2 Oct'26 3-week selling. However Oct/Nov'26 went better offered again post window.

This afternoon Brent/Dubai continued to rally, the Oct'26 Brent/Dubai breaking through $0.00/bbl and quickly moving to $0.70/bbl. There was some Chinese buying of Nov'26 Brent Swap vs Oct'26 Dubai, but at the highs except for refiner, trade and major were more sellside. Throughout the day there was good buying by major and tradehouse on Oct/Nov'26 Dubai spread, and selling on the Oct/Nov'26 box. The spread recovered most of its decline, trading back up from $4.80/bbl to close the afternoon at $5.50/bbl. The box traded largely range-bound, Oct/Nov'26 trading between -$2.10/bbl to -$1.80/bbl. There was also some more fund buying of Q2'27 Brent/Dubai, bidding around $1.60/bbl.

In VLSFO, Sing 0.5 was choppy this afternoon, Sing spreads particularly struggled to find liquidity, Oct/Nov'26 traded up from $44.00/mt to $45/$00.00/mt while Nov/Dec'26 traded between $34.50/mt to $35.50/mt. Oct'26 Sing cracks saw decent on screen volume however price action was choppy, it initially rallied in eaerly afternoon up to $22.40/bbl before sharply reversing and selling down to $21.90/bbl, it then getting bid back up in the window to $22.40/bbl. Euro 0.5 spreads also struggled to find liquidity particularly in the early afternoon, where there were no bids in the market, Oct/Nov'26 traded between $16.00/mt and $16.25/mt. Oct'26 Euro crack saw better liquidity initially trading down $2.25/bbl to $1.85/bbl before getting bid back to $2.30/bbl post window.

380 complex came under sell side pressure in the early afternoon and was choppy leading up to the window, Oct/Nov'26 traded as low as $28.75/mt, real buying came into the market then and it got bid up to $32.25 by the start of the window, liquidity was thin during the window but it traded back down to $31.50/mt. Oct'26 380 crack behaved in a similar fashion, trading as low as -$3.70/bbl in the early afternoon sell-off before rallying to -$3.05/bbl by the start of the window and then closing out the window at -$3.50/bbl. Barges was also choppy, Oct/Nov'26 sold off from $13.50/mt to $12.75/mt before rebounding to $13.25/mt where it stabilised, Oct'26 Barge crack traded between -$12.65/bbl and -$12.75/bbl pre window and then sold off to -$13.10/bbl on screen during the window. Oct'26 380 e/w got as low as $59.00/mt in the early afternoon, it was bid back up and traded around $61.00/mt for the remainder of the afternoon.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw selling in the front, with Oct/Nov'26 trading from $9.40/bbl down to $9.00/bbl. Front E/W saw some support on combo buying, trading from -$82.00/mt up to -$77.00/mt. Regrade also saw some support in the prompt, from -$4.30/bbl up to -$4.10/bbl.

ICE gasoil spreads rallied initially before selling off, with Oct/Nov'26 trading up to $75.00/mt before falling back to $70.50/mt last while Nov'26 cracks sold off to $86.50/bbl. European jet diffs continued to see weakness in the front, with Oct'26 trading down at $113.00/mt, while Q1'27 fell slightly to $135.00/mt.

A very choppy afternoon in gasoline, with RBBRs initially selling off aggressively down to $29.80/bbl, before rebounding to $31.50/bbl end window. Arbs recovered from -3.90c/gal to -2.70c/gal where they found good sellside from tradehouses. EBOB cracks followed a similar pattern to RBBRs and crude, trading down to lows of $35.80/bbl before getting bid back up to $37.40/bbl. Spreads saw better buyside interest on stronger RBBRs, with Oct/Nov'26 trading up to $107.00/mt. E/W firmed from -$6.00/bbl to -$5.40/bbl with 92 spreads seeing good buyside interest up to $12.00/bbl.

This afternoon in naphtha was mixed, with MOC balanced and spreads largely following crude lower through the window. MOPJ cracks were lower, with Oct'26 down to $1.10/bbl and backend cracks offered off of FEI/MOPJ flows, while spreads initially softened before recovering slightly higher on crude, with Oct/Nov'26 down to around $31.00/mt and Nov/Dec'26 around $30.50/mt, both lower versus the morning. E/W followed a similar pattern, with Oct'26 easing from $60.50/mt this morning to around $59.00/mt before recovering back to the morning levels, while Q1'27 fell to $45.50/mt and the front boxes remained priced up. NWE naphtha were von front cracks, with Oct'26 moving from around -$5.50/bbl this morning to around -$5.90/bbl before being bid up to -$5.50/mt in window, while Cal 27’ traded -$7.25/bbl and the Q1/2 roll holding at $1.60/bbl; spreads were choppy but ultimately came off vs the morning, with Oct/Nov'26 around $30.50/mt and Dec/Jan'27 at $18.75/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI continued to sell off across the afternoon with both spreads and flat price lower. Oct/Nov FEI sold down to $30/t before rebounding slightly to close the afternoon at $34/mt. Nov/Dec also trading lower than the morning levels of $33/mt, trading at $31.50/mt end window. There was also some Dec/Dec selling at $193.50/mt, down from $214/mt from last night’s close. As the FEI sell off continued, LST/FEI strengthened further, seeing Oct trading up to -$395/mt, closing the afternoon printing at -$400/mt. This is down from the close last night of -$427/mt. Cal'27 LST/FEI was lifted at -$233/mt, and Q4'26 was trading at -$373/mt, before closing end window at -$371/mt. There was also a Nov EPC/FEI arb seller at -$385/mt. Deferred FEI/MOPJs had buyside interest out of Q1 at -$56/mt, which softened by $2 across the afternoon. Mixed interest in LST spreads across the afternoon, with deferred Q1/2'27 initially getting lifted at 5.875c/gal, and Q1/3 was sold at 7.625c/gal towards the end of the afternoon. In the front, Oct/Nov LST was lifted at 0.625c/gal, down from last night’s close of 0.75c/gal. In Butane, there was buying of the front spreads, with both Oct/Nov and Nov/Dec C4 ENT trading at 0.75c/gal, and in the deferred, Dec/Jan bought at 1.75c/gal, softening to 1.625c/gal by close. Had a scaleback Bunap buyer out of Oct from -$226/mt to -$244/mt.