Brent Weakens As Khamenei Gives “Certain Authorities” Over Peace Talks

In the news, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said that the Supreme Leader has given the government "certain authorities" over peace talks, adding that Tehran "will try to resolve the problem with dialogue." Elsewhere, the US is pushing for a rapid resumption of Russian natural gas exports to Europe through pipelines crossing Ukraine, as part of talks to secure an energy ceasefire before winter, as per the Wall Street Journal, citing US, European, and Ukrainian officials. In other news, Germany needs to review and improve how it fills its gas caverns, storage industry association INES said, as storage levels in Europe's largest economy sit at record lows heading into winter. As of 01 Nov, storage stood at 61.03%, well short of the roughly 70% target Berlin had set for the start of the month, raising supply shortage fears even though the government says there will be no bottlenecks. INES Managing Director Sebastian Heinermann said the missed target shows storage levels for coming winters "must be guaranteed more rigorously." Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Jan/Feb’27) and 6-month (Jan/Jul’27) Brent futures spreads are at $3.14/bbl and $13.83/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon, the prompt dragged the Dated complex lower. Nov DFL unwound from $4.79/bbl to $4.04/bbl by the end of the window, size going through at $4.62/bbl, and was last seen at $3.72/bbl. Dec DFL slid from $5.55/bbl to a $4.92/bbl low as real buying on the way down failed to hold it, with size through at $5.50/bbl; $5.10/bbl at the end of the window and $4.98/bbl last. Nov/Dec Dated briefly firmed to $2.90/bbl from $2.75/bbl before trading at $2.40/bbl despite refiner buying all the way down, with size trading at $2.85/bbl. It has slipped further since, while Dec/Jan Dated was offered down from $4.00/bl to $3.55/bbl.

The physical window set the tone: a tradehouse offered Forties aggressively across the curve, knocking more than $1 off the physical differential, and the prompt CFD went with it, 02-06 Nov falling from $3.50/bbl to $2.50/bbl by the end of the window.

It was a busy days market. 02-06 Nov v Dec was paid at $1.70/bbl pre-window but has softened since. Also saw 23-27 Nov v Dec go at $2.45/bbl after the window, while Nov v 25 Nov-01 Dec edged up from -$0.20/bbl to -$0.15/bbl through selling.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai we rallied, despite continued selling of Dec'26 Brent/Dubai by Chinese players. The Dec'26 Brent/Dubai was range-bound around -$1.10/bbl early on, before moving higher after midday, up from -$1.20/bbl to -$0.47/bbl and finishing around -$0.52/bbl. There was tradehouse buying of Jan'27 Brent/Dubai in size around -$1.78/bbl.The Dec/Jan'27 Dubai spread was offered by tradehouse around $2.05/bbl, coming off to $1.84/bbl. The Dec/Jan'27 box traded between $0.57/bbl to $0.85/bbl, with tradehouse buying around $0.86/bbl.

There was a broad sell off in Eastern products this afternoon, as the market reduced length. Dec/Jan Sing sold off from $38.00/mt to $35.50/mt by window start, it then traded down to $34.25/mt in the window, Jan/Feb was offered down from $34.75/mt to $31.00/mt. Dec Sing crack also saw real selling, trading down from $25.50/mt to $23.50/mt pre window, it continued to sell off during and after the window to $23.00/mt, Dec 0.5 E/W has therefore been implied and traded lower from $167.00/mt to $150.50/mt. Euro complex remained illiquid and price action was limited, Dec/Jan consistently traded at $14.75/mt while Dec Euro crack was rangebound trading between -$0.85/bbl and -$0.75/bbl.

380 complex also saw an aggressive sell-off, Dec/Jan saw a lot of volume and traded down from $41.50/mt to $38.00/mt, Jan/Feb sold down on screen from $30.50/mt to $26.75/mt. Dec 380 crack sold off from $6.50/bbl to $4.85/bbl by window start and then sold off a further 35c to $4.50/bbl post window, Dec 380 E/W came off 5 dollars to $105.25/mt. Barge spreads saw real selling too with Dec/Jan coming off from $17.50/mt to $13.50/mt, Dec Barge crack sold down a dollar from -$11.10/bbl to -$12.10/bbl.

This afternoon in gasoline we saw RBBRs rally post US open, with Dec'26 arbs trading at 18.55c/gal. EBOB was better bid, with cracks firming from $11.00/bbl to $11.60/bbl in Nov'26 and the Balmo spread found some buying interest up to $18.00/mt and Dec/Jan'27 was better bid at $8.00/mt but remained balanced around that level. E/W was range-bound, trading at $0.00/bbl end window with 92 cracks seeing mixed interest, seeing value at $11.50/bbl before the window.

A softer afternoon in naphtha with matching better offered. Cracks were weaker into the afternoon, with Dec'26 cracks coming off from -$4.35/bbl down to -$4.80/bbl at the end of the European window despite crude coming off. Spreads weakened down the curve with Dec/Jan'27 trading down to $24.25/mt end window and the Q1/Q2'27 crack roll selling at $2.20/bbl. E/W was weaker in the front, trading down to $75.50/mt in Dec'26 and Dec/Jan'27 MOPJ was better offered getting hit down to $35.00/mt by physical sellers.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI structure was weaker. Dec/Jan'27 FEI traded at $61.00/mt at the US open and then at $58.00/mt later in the afternoon. This was down from the morning high of $63.00/mt. Q1/Q2'27 FEI also saw international trades interest at $148.00/mt.

FEI/MOPJs were firm despite the sell off in FEI as MOPJ remains more sensitive to a weaker crude. Q1'27 FEI/MOPJ continued to trading at -$19.00/mt briefly trading at -$18.00/mt. Dec'26 FEI/MOPJ traded at $31.00/mt and $30.00/mt before rebounding to $31.00/mt.

The arb was stronger this afternoon as LST held up relatively better than FEI against a weak crude and we lost Chinese buying in the afternoon. Q1'27 LST/FEI traded to -$261.00/mt up from -$273.00/mt while Jan'27 LST/FEI traded to -$299.00/mt up from -$314.00/mt in the morning.

LST spreads were weaker this afternoon, firmer than FEI overall with Q1/Q2'27 LST selling down from 17.25c/gal to 17.00c/gal. Dec/Jan'27 LST was firm at 2.75c/gal throughout the afternoon, supported by arb buying in the front.

Butane flat price was weak today in line with weak crude but spreads remained strong. Dec/Jan'27 butane was firm at 13.50c/gal. C4/C3 ENT/LST was also weaker in Dec'26 printing 62.00c/gal to close versus 64.00c/gal nearer the US open.