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It’s Not Coming Home (The Barrel, Through Hormuz)

Brent stabilises below $85 as backwardation returns. Dubai weakens sharply, while refining margins climb to record highs.
Published: July 16, 2026
Written by:
Vincent Wu

Vincent Wu

Research Associate, Flux
Vincent Wu
,
Martha Dowding

Martha Dowding

Research Associate, Flux
Martha Dowding
and
Donna Dong

Donna Dong

Research Analyst, Flux
Donna Dong
16 page report
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In a week of closely watched strikes and even more closely watched strikers, the standoff in the Middle East has escalated, with tit-for-tat strikes from the US and Iran.

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Written by

Vincent Wu

Research Associate, Flux
Vincent Wu

Martha Dowding

Research Associate, Flux
Martha Dowding

Donna Dong

Research Analyst, Flux
Donna Dong

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