Brent Firms as Saudi Aramco HQ Shoulders Heavy Damage

In the news, Saudi Aramco's Dhahran headquarters sustained extensive damage in yesterday’s attack, with a fire spreading across several floors, according to Reuters sources. Operations at the eastern Saudi complex have continued normally, though some employees have been asked to work from home. Another source said certain functions have been shifted to global offices, adding that the fire was still burning into the early hours of today. Elsewhere, the pace at which Europe releases its large diesel stocks will be the market's focus when the IEA meets tomorrow. The IEA's governing board will discuss the scale and timing of further stock releases after Trump told EU countries to draw down emergency inventories or face a potential US diesel export ban, as he looks to lower prices ahead of midterm elections. In other news, Chinese-Saudi joint venture Huajin Aramco Petrochemical Co has received its first shipment of Arabian crude at its refinery and petrochemical complex in Liaoning province, bringing the project closer to starting operations, according to a company statement. The complex is expected to include a 300kb/d refinery and a chemical plant with an annual capacity of 1.65Mmt of ethylene and 2Mmt of paraxylene. Reuters also reported that China's state-owned Zhenhua Oil had booked 2mb of Saudi crude for August loading to supply the complex. Panjin Xincheng chairman Jia Fei said the project is significant as it supports the expansion of higher-value products and fine chemicals while strengthening the integration of refining and chemical industries. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’27) and 6-month (Dec/May’27) Brent futures spreads are at $2.60/bbl and $12.15/bbl, respectively.

Dated weakened further this afternoon, with the weakness concentrated in the prompt. On the physical side, two players were offering cargoes in the window. Nov'26 DFL slid from $4.10/bbl to $3.75/bbl, with refiners selling at $4.10/bbl, $3.80/bbl and $3.75/bbl into the end of the window before a buyer stepped in at $3.80/bbl just after. Dec'26 DFL held up better, sold at $3.36/bbl and $3.43/bbl, so Nov/Dec'26 DFL more than halved from $0.75/bbl to $0.32/bbl on screen and has kept easing since. Around the window open, real players bought Oct'26 DFL in size at $16.90/bbl, and Nov/Feb'27 Dated was bought at $7.45/bbl. In the days market, the prompt CFDs bought earlier, 19-23 Oct'26 at $10.90/bbl and 02-06 Nov'26 at $5.60/bbl, have both eased since. Within the 19-23 Oct'26 week, 19-20 v 22-23 Oct'26 was bought at $4.40/bbl and $20.00/bbl v 23 Oct'26 sold at $4.00/bbl, while 19 v 26 Oct'26 was sold at $9.00/bbl. 09-13 Nov'26 CFD was bought at $4.10/bbl at the end of the window, and $4.05/bbl just after, and daily DFL 02-06 Nov'26 was sold at $5.20/bbl at the end of the window.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai we saw refiner selling of Nov Brent/Dubai. There was continued fund and bank buying of Q1 and Q3 Brent/Dubai, but despite this as tradehouse was bidding the Jan/Mar boxes, the Nov Brent/Dubai slid lower, and the back also slid lower. The Nov Bremt/Dubai traded down from -$1.70/bbl to -$1.95/bbl, giving back all of its morning's gains. The Dubai spreads found some buying around $2.80/bbl in the Nov/Dec by major, and drifted higher in line with Brent spreads, finishing the day up at $3.02/bbl, reversing the whole day's losses.

It was a quiet afternoon in fuel with both regions struggling for liquidity; Sing cracks and spreads remained relatively stable while the Euro crack went better bid. Nov/Dec'26 Sing traded between $28.00/mt and $28.50/mt. Nov'26 Sing crack traded between $26.00/bbl and $26.20/bbl, until the window when it traded down to $25.75/bbl on screen; it has since bounced back up to $26.00/bbl. Euro 0.5% remained illiquid, particularly in spreads; Nov/Dec'26 traded up 50c to $16.00/bbl over the course of the afternoon. Nov'26 Euro crack was choppy; it turned better bid in the early afternoon, trading up from $0.75/bbl to $1.50/bbl, then offered down on screen to $1.15/bbl by window start and sold down to $0.90/bbl in the window before bouncing back up to $1.20/bbl post window.

In HSFO, 380 complex continued to strengthen this afternoon with the 380 E/W reaching all-time highs and barge spreads were also better bid. Nov/Dec'26 380 was aggressively bid up from $55.00/mt to $58.00/mt in the early afternoon; it then traded back down to $56.50/mt before getting bid back up to $59.00/mt in the window. Nov'26 380 crack was consistently bid on screen all day, it traded up from $13.00/bbl to $13.75/bbl pre-window and then rallied to $14.20/bbl in the window. Nov'26 380 E/W was bid up around $6.00/mt dollars to an all-time high of $136.50/mt. Barge spreads remained thin, Nov/Dec'26 was bid up 75c to $23.50/mt during the window, while Dec/Jan'27 traded at $20.50/mt, Nov'26 Barge crack was range-bound, trading between -$7.50/bbl and -$7.20/bbl.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were better offered, with Nov/Dec'26 trading down from $4.00/bbl to $3.55/bbl. Spread interest past this was thin, with more two action in Dec/Jan'27. E/W found support with refiners buying in Q1'27 at -$111.00/mt and Q4'26 buying stepping up to -$70.50/mt, with main sellers coming off the back of crack hedging. Kero was thin but saw similar flow with sell-side interest on deferred regrade, with refiners coming in sell-side on cracks.

This afternoon, gasoline was mixed. RBBRs came off post-US open before recovering to $25.80/bbl at the end of the window. Arbs were thin and scaleback offered, trading at 7.50c/gal in Nov'26 during the window, with Q4'27 arbs offered at 23.25c/gal. EBOB was soft throughout most of the afternoon, trading down to lows of $25.10/bbl before going better bid end window. Spreads saw a similar pattern, coming off to lows of $60.00/mt and then getting bid back up to $63.00/mt by a refiner. E/W was supported around -$3.30/bbl, but there was good spread selling by a trading house, with Nov/Dec'26 getting hit down to $6.20/bbl.

This afternoon in naphtha was weaker overall, with MOC offered and NWE front cracks and spreads remaining under pressure. NWE Nov'26 cracks fell from -$3.90/bbl this morning to -$4.45/bbl before recovering to -$4.30/bbl post-window; Q1'27 ended at -$6.20/bbl as a large buyer of Dec/Q1'27 came in, trading at $1.00/bbl, while the Nov/Dec'26 crack roll fell to $0.85/bbl. Spreads also softened sharply, with Nov/Dec'26 falling from $32.50/mt this morning to around $29.50/mt, Dec/Jan'27 at $18.00/mt and balmo down $1 to $30.00/mt. E/W was stronger early, with Nov'26 rising from around $82.00/mt this morning to $85.25/mt pre-window, but the window was illiquid; Q1'27 was around $63.50/mt and the Q1/Q2'27 box eased to $15.25/mt. MOPJ stayed thin, with Dec'26 cracks firm at $3.85/bbl, Nov'26 around $5.10/bbl and Q1'27 at $.95/bbl pre-window; spreads softened slightly, with Nov/Dec'26 around $33.50/mt, Dec/Jan'27 at $28.50/mt and Jan/Mar'27 at $55.00/mt post-window.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI spreads were up, with Nov/Dec'26 FEI trading at $42.00/mt in the afternoon from $40.50/mt and $41.00/mt at the US open. However, Dec/Jan'27 FEI was firm at $39.00/mt, dipping briefly to trade at $38.50/mt at the US open. FEI/CP was firm this afternoon, with Dec'26 FEI/CP trading at $219.00/mt throughout the afternoon. CP structure was firm with Nov/Dec'26 CP staying at $24.00/mt in the European window. The arb was down about $1.00/mt this afternoon, with Nov'26 LST/FEI trading at -$402.00/mt versus -$401.00/mt pre-window and Dec'26 LST/FEI trading at $-$369.00/mt before stepping down to -$370.00/mt. Q1'27 LST/FEI traded at -$315.00/mt, down from -$314.00/mt this morning. LST structure was slightly softer this afternoon, with Nov/Dec'26 LST trading at 1.00c/gal throughout the afternoon. Q1/Q2'27 LST traded at 8.875c/gal, down slightly from 9.00c/gal pre-window. However, flat price was still up, supported by some arb buying and higher FEI. There was also Importer buying of the Dec'26 EPC/FEI, which traded at -$371.50/mt before printing up to -$369.00/mt to close. FEI/MOPJs were higher this afternoon, with Nov'26 FEI/MOPJ trading at -$14.00/mt up from -$20.00/mt print pre-window. Butane structure remained bid, with Nov/Dec'26 Butane opening at 6.00c/gal, trading at 5.875c/gal briefly before stepping up to 6.25c/gal during the European window. There was trades buying of the summer Butane with Q2/Q3'27 strip trading at 113.75c/gal. Cal27 C4 ENT also traded at highs of 120.375c/gal this afternoon before stepping back down to 120.00c/gal. The Cal 27 C4/MOPJ traded today at -$239.00/mt as Butane flat price stepped down. This represents a $5.00/mt decline from yesterday’s traded levels of -$234.00/mt.