Mita Chaturvedi
Research Associate, Flux
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Brent remains supported above $105/bbl on continued threats on Saudi Arabian sites
In a Truth Social post, US President Donald Trump said that the Houthis are "behaving very badly"...
Published: October 13, 2026
Written by:
Mita Chaturvedi
Dec'26 Brent futures climbed from a low of $104.35/bbl at around 11:05 BST this morning to a high of $106.24/bbl at 16:29 BST. Prices have since eased to $105.60/bbl at 17:25 BST (time of writing).
Brent Futures Flat Price
In a Truth Social post, US President Donald Trump said that the Houthis are "behaving very badly", calling the group's efforts to "purposefully" drive up oil prices "NOT NICE" and suggesting Iran may be behind the Houthis' attacks on Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, the Houthis have issued warnings to Saudi Arabian citizens and workers, stating that if the Saudi Arabian coalition were to target Sana'a, then the Houthis would target Saudi Arabia's Aramco Headquarters in Dammam, Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport and the Aramco Refinery in Riyadh. In other news, the IRGC reported an oil tanker on fire after attempting to pass through a "restricted zone." The IMF has flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential end to the AI investment boom, growing debt levels and a prolonged Middle East conflict. The group has still forecast global growth at 3.1% for 2026 (prev: 3.0%) while predicted growth in 2027 sits at 3.4% - based on assumptions that the Strait of Hormuz reopens by March and shipping conditions return to the pre-war situation by October 2027. Finally, at the time of writing, the Dec/Jan'27 and Dec/Jun'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $2.80/bbl and $11.71/bbl, respectively.
Crude Oil
Volatile afternoon for Dated. Outrights firmed with Brent futures, but structure came off through the window, with the Nov/Dec'26 DFL roll the biggest mover, down 41c to $1.16/bbl, having traded a $1.00-$1.65/bbl range. Nov'26 DFL traded a $4.60-$5.35/bbl range, closing the window trading at $4.68/bbl, whilst Dec'26 DFL saw buying from $3.75/bbl down to $3.46/bbl. Balmo Oct'26 DFL was choppy, trading a wide $12.70-$15.95/bbl range. In the dailies, 26-30 Oct'26 DFL was bid at $7.70/bbl before easing to $7.00/bbl at window end, whilst 2-6 Nov'26 DFL saw selling at $6.65/bbl post window. CFDs came off sharply at the front, with 19-23 Oct'26 down $2.98 to $13.32/bbl and $26.00/bbl-30 Oct'26 at $5.42/bbl. Further down the curve, we saw reals selling Dec/Jan'27 DFL at $1.00/bbl, whilst Q1'27 DFL saw buying from $2.30/bbl up to $2.35/bbl, closing the window at $2.32/bbl.
Brent/Dubai was range-bound, with buying of Nov'26 and Dec'26 Dated/Dubai, but the screen was better offered in Brent/Dubai, meaning the Nov'26 Brent/Dubai traded range-bound between -$2.20/bbl and -$2.00/bbl. There was some continued products buying of Q1'27 and Q2'27 Brent/Dubai, but bank buying of the Feb/May'27 Brent/Dubai box allowed market makers to take down the flow whilst keeping Brent/Dubai in a tight range. The Dubai spreads traded in line with Brent spreads, which weakened during the European window, with Brent spreads also coming off.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Fuel Oil
Sing 0.5% cracks weakened into the afternoon while spreads remained stable; Euro cracks were choppy while spreads sold off considerably. After selling off this morning, Nov/Dec'26 Sing settled and consistently traded between $29.50/mt and $30.00/mt, while Dec/Jan'27 Sing displayed similar price action, selling down this morning and then consistently trading around $29.50/mt. Nov'26 Sing crack rallied in the early afternoon, getting bid up on screen to $27.70/bbl; however, when the interest turned sell-side, it struggled to find support, selling down to $26.75/bbl by window start and then continuing to sell off during and after the window to $26.25/bbl. Dec'26 Sing crack was relatively illiquid but still sold off from $25.45/bbl to $24.50/bbl. Euro 0.5 spread liquidity remained very low; Nov/Dec'26 traded down OTC from $16.25/bbl to $15.25/bbl pre-window and then slipped to $14.75/mt post-window. Nov'26 Euro crack was offered down from $0.70/bbl to $0.05/bbl pre-window; it then oscillated between $0.10/bbl and $0.40/bbl.
In HSFO, 380 cracks rallied again this afternoon while spread price action was rather muted. Nov/Dec'26 380 was range-bound, trading between $51.50/mt and $52.50/mt. Dec/Jan'27 encountered some buying pre-window, trading up from $37.50/mt to $39.00/mt; it traded between $38.65/mt and $39.00/mt in the window. Nov'26 380 crack saw real buying, particularly in the early afternoon, where it was bid up from $10.60/bbl to $11.50/bbl; it sold down to $11.30/bbl in the window. Barge spreads continued to lack liquidity this afternoon; Nov/Dec'26 gained a dollar to $23.50/mt while Dec/Jan'27 traded at $20.75/mt in the early afternoon. Nov'26 Barge crack was better offered, trading down from -$7.60/bbl to -$8.00/bbl; 380 E/W continued to strengthen this afternoon; it has been implied and traded around $7 higher at $122.00/mt.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Distillates
This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads continued to see buying in Q1, with Jan/Apr trading up to $13.05/bbl. Front gasoil E/W saw selling, hit from -$128/mt down to -$130.25/mt. Kero spreads were scale back offered in Nov/Dec on higher ICE gasoil, while Nov regrade saw buying at $1.90/bbl.
Prompt ICE gasoil spreads firmed overall, with Dec/Jan trading from $32/mt up to $35.75/mt as Dec cracks rallied from $79.20/bbl up to $82.80/bbl. European jet diffs continued weaker in the front, with Nov trading from $140/mt down to lows of $134/mt.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Gasoline
This afternoon, gasoline was mixed. RBBRs rallied to $26.70/bbl before coming off post window, pushing Nov'26 arbs up from 4.00c/gal to 5.25c/gal. EBOB continued to weaken, with Nov'26 cracks coming off from $27.75/bbl to lows of $26.25/bbl before rebounding to $27.50/bbl during the window, with Q1'27 valued at $20.40/bbl. Spreads weakened as well, with Nov/Dec'26 trading down to lows of $65.00/mt but saw buying back up to $67.00/mt. E/W was range-bound around -$4.00/bbl as 92 cracks saw mixed interest around $23.00/bbl.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Naphtha
This afternoon, naphtha was softer overall, with MOC better offered and majors selling prompt NWE cracks aggressively at the end of the window. NWE naphtha weakened from the morning, with Nov'26 cracks down from -$3.40/bbl pre-window to -$3.70/bbl and ending around -$3.65/bbl; Q1'27 finished at -$6.05/bbl, Q2/Q3'27 traded at $0.70/bbl, and Cal 28 fell to -$10.15/bbl. Spreads were thin, with Nov/Dec'26 at $34.50/mt and Dec/Jan'27 at $19.50/mt post-window. E/W faded after an early bid, with Nov'26 moving up to $83.50/mt before ending offered at $81.50/mt, while Q1'27 eased from $65.50/mt to $64.25/mt and the Jan/Feb'27 box traded at $7.00/mt. MOPJ remained illiquid on cracks aside from Jan'27 trading at $2.75/bbl, although Cal 27’ cracks traded down from -$2.80/bbl to -$2.90/bbl earlier, while spreads softened into the close, with Nov/Dec'26 at $35.75/mt and Dec/Jan'27 at $28.75/mt post-window.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
NGLs
This afternoon in NGLs, FEI spreads were firm, with Nov/Dec'26 FEI trading at $40.00/mt throughout the afternoon. Dec/Jan'27 FEI was also initially firm at $36.00/mt before stepping up to $37.50/mt to close the European window. Nov'26 FEI/CP started the afternoon trading at $231.00/mt before trading up to $235.00/mt as crude, and FEI flat price rose into the European window. FEI/MOPJs returned to their previous levels, trading at -$50.00/mt this afternoon, giving back gains from this morning at -$48.00/mt. Dec'26 FEI/MOPJ also declined $2.00/mt, trading at -$30.00/mt this afternoon vs -$28.00/mt in the morning window.
The Arb was strong into the open, with the Nov'26 LST/FEI trading at -$390.00/mt in Nov'26 before softening in the European window, trading at -$396.00/mt. There was also more selling of the Cal28 Arb, with Cal28 LST/FEI trading at -$179.00/mt this afternoon, down from -$177.00/mt this morning. LST structure was slightly softer this afternoon. Nov/Dec'26 LST traded 1.25c/gal pre-window before stepping down to 1.125c/gal by the European close. Q1/Q2'27 LST was actively traded at 9.00c/gal before trading at 8.875c/gal to close.
Butane was strong again today. Nov/Dec'26 C4 ENT traded at 5.75c/gal pre-window, and Dec/Jan'27 traded at 5.75c/gal also before reaching 5.625c/gal in the European window. This is up from 5.375c/gal traded yesterday afternoon. There was also importer buying of the Cal27 C4 ENT/MOPJ, which traded at -$234.00/mt, up from printing -$237.00/mt pre-window
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
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