Brent briefly surges above $107/bbl. Riyadh Airport shut until 17 Oct

In the news, UKMTO reported a tanker outbound from the Strait of Hormuz being struck by an unknown projectile. The crew is reportedly safe. A Saudi air strike in north Yemen has reportedly killed 9 people and injured 7, according to Houthi-run al-Masirah TV. In Europe, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has called on the US to align with Europe's sanctions policy against Russia, stating that coordinated pressure from Washington and European partners could help bring an end to the war in Ukraine. This follows a deal between the US and Russia, with the latter agreeing to release 300,000 mt of diesel immediately "to the American and global marketplace", as per US President Donald Trump. In other news, Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport will remain closed until 22:00 BST on 17 Oct, as per a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM). Finally, at the time of writing, the Dec/Jan'27 and Dec/Jun'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $3.54/bbl and $13.76/bbl, respectively.

Volatile afternoon in Dated Brent. Structure and outrights were better bid into the window, before sharply correcting lower towards the window end. 2-6/11 saw the bulk of buying from a trade house and a producer, trading up to highs of $10.25/bbl, closing the window trading at $9.95/bbl. Nov'26 DFL rallied to highs of $6.10/bbl, quickly retracing back to $5.70/bbl post-window. In the physical, 2 US players bid for a cargo of Midland each, with a trade house and producer each bidding for a cargo of Forties. The physical moved up approx 50c; however, with two cargoes sold, it marked the turn in the strength of the window, with DFLs selling off since.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai was very quiet, the only flow being some buying of Dec'26 Dated Dubai around $2.20/bbl. The Nov'26 Brent/Dubai traded range-bound between -$2.70/bbl and -$2.50/bbl. The Dubai spreads also traded in a tight range, the Nov/Dec'26 between $3.65/bbl and $3.75/bbl. The screen was better offered in the Dec'26 through Mar'27 Dubai spreads, with large iceberged offers being taken out on Brent flat price rallies. This saw all of the Brent/Dubai boxes continue to move up, the Dec/Mar'27 box, despite being offered OTC, moving up from -$0.45/bbl to -$0.25/bbl. This, in combination with a range-bound Nov'26 Brent/Dubai, implied the backend lower.

This morning's strength in VLSFO continued into the afternoon, with cracks in both regions strengthening considerably; spreads were a little more subdued. Nov/Dec'26 Sing continued to trade at similar levels to this morning, trading at $32.00/mt for the majority of the afternoon but then getting bid up to $32.75/mt post window; Dec/Jan'27 traded up a dollar pre window to $30.00/mt and then rallied to $31.00/mt post window. Nov'26 Sing crack consistently bid on screen for the afternoon; it traded up from $24.80/bbl to $26.25/bbl before the window and was bid up to $26.70/bbl during the window and continued to rally post window to $27.10/bbl. Dec'26 Sing crack saw very little volume but ultimately traded up 70c to $23.20/bbl. Euro spreads continued to struggle for liquidity this afternoon; Nov/Dec'26 traded down from $18.00/mt to $17.00/mt, while Dec/Jan'27 traded at $15.00/mt. Nov'26 Euro crack saw better liquidity; it traded up to $0.90/bbl in the early afternoon before selling off on screen to $0.55/bbl; it was then bid back up to $0.90/bbl post window. 0.5 E/W was implied around 10 dollars higher, at $167.00/mt on the back of Sing crack strength.

In HSFO, the 380 complex behaved similarly to Sing 0.5; cracks saw real buying and little resistance while spreads remained stable. Nov/Dec'26 380 traded between $50.75/mt and $51.00/mt while Dec/Jan'27 traded up from $36.50/mt to $37.75/mt. Nov'26 380 crack initially traded down 25c to $8.75/bbl before getting bid up to $9.50/bbl in the lead-up to the window and strengthening to $9.75/bbl post-window. Barge complex weakened this afternoon as real selling came in; Nov/Dec'26 sold off from $25.00/mt to $22.50/mt in low volume while Dec/Jan'27 came off 50c to $21.00/mt. Nov'26 Barge crack sold off on screen from -$7.30/bbl to -$8.15/bbl; consequently, 380 E/W strengthened around $10.00/mt to $113.50/mt.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw scale-back buying on lower ICE gasoil, trading from $3.50/bbl down to $3.30/bbl, while front E/W strengthened from -$132.00/mt up to -$129.00/mt, with Dec'26 E/W getting bid up to -$116.00/mt. Regrade saw bids in Dec'26 on combo buying, while Dec/Jan'27 kero buying stepped up to $3.50/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads sold off, with Nov/Dec'26 trading from $41.00/mt down to $37.50/mt, while Dec'26 cracks firmed from $76.50/bbl up to $78.20/bbl. European jet diffs were better bid, with Nov'26 trading from $140.00/mt up to $145.00/mt.

This afternoon gasoline was mixed. RBBRs came off post-US open before recovering to $26.85/bbl at the end of the window, and arbs were better bid in Nov'26 and Dec'26, with Dec'26 trading around 13.50c/gal. EBOB was weak, with cracks selling off from $30.70/bbl to $29.55/bbl in Nov'26, and spreads were better offered as well, with Nov/Dec'26 softening to $77.00/mt to $73.50/mt. Nov'26 E/W recovered slightly from this morning’s sell-off, trading up from -$6.60/bbl to -$6.00/bbl. 92 was thin but was slightly better offered, with Nov/Dec'26 selling off from $7.00/bbl to $6.90/bbl.

This afternoon in naphtha, sentiment was balanced, with NWE cracks trading at -$2.80/bbl at the end of the window. Cracks were more buy-side in general but were a touch softer in the window, trading down to -$3.00/bbl post-window; and NWE spreads were better bid, with Nov/Dec trading up to $39.00/mt in the window but getting sold down to $38.25/mt. Q1'27 cracks priced down from -$5.45/bbl to -$5.75/bbl in the afternoon. E/W was better buy-side in the front from real but was sold into from $89.00/mt to $85.50/mt, and Q1'27 E/W saw selling down to $65.00/mt. MOPJ sprs were better offered, with Nov/Jan'27 seeing sticky selling at $75.00/mt from tradehouses, and funds were on the buy side of Jan'27 cracks up to $3.90/bbl.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI spreads were slightly weaker, with Nov/Dec'26 FEI trading back to $43.00/mt by the European window after trading $44.00/mt during the US window. Dec/Jan'27 FEI opened at $39.00/mt, briefly trading at $39.50/mt before trading at $39.00/mt to close. This was up slightly from the $38.00/mt to close the morning window. Dec/Dec'26 FEI traded at $248.00/mt before falling to $245.40/mt whilst Dec/Dec'26 28 traded at $110.00/mt. Q1'27 FEI/MOPJs were firm at -$50.00/mt while the Q2'27-Q4'26 FEI/MOPJ strip traded at -$73.00/mt. FEI/CP was also very strong into the open, with Nov'26 FEI/CP trading at highs of $250.00/mt pre-window and opening at $249.00/mt. However, by the close, Nov'26 FEI/CP had stepped back down to $244.00/mt.

The Arb continued to strengthen into the afternoon with Nov'26 LST/FEI opening weak at -$407.00/mt before trading at -$406.00/mt and $405.00/mt throughout the afternoon. To close, LST/FEI Nov'26 stepped up to -$400.00/mt. Nov/Dec'26 LST was firm at 1.50c/gal this afternoon, up 0.125c/gal from yesterday’s closing print. Q2/Q3'27 LST opened at 3.125c/gal before rising to 3.375c/gal mid-afternoon. Butane continued to rally as front-end Butane spreads traded up. Nov/Dec'26 Butane traded at 4.75c/gal before rising to 5.375c/gal. This is up 1.00c/gal from yesterday’s levels.