The Officials

Above $64 for the first time since 19 November! We told ya! Do not believe the super glut narratives, throw them in the bin, above the heads of all the short only consultants, ship trackers and bankers. A surge just before 14:30 GMT from under $63.20 to a high at $64.10 by 15:30. It moved down through the window to hit $63.76/bbl by the close. But the prompt spread didn’t keep up with that and rose only a few cents to 42c before falling back to 40c by the close.

Love and kisses and sweet nothings in the ear. The love, the love… just flowing among long-time friends. Putin and Modi are really the best of friends. Anybody feeling jealous? Trump, Rubio? It is obvious that some like to treat countries with a stick and others with carrots and this approach yields predictable results.

OSPs came early! The Kingdom decided to surprise us on another quiet day and announce their OSPs for January. The Saudis didn’t disappoint and delivered what the change in Dubai structure implied – a 40c cut for Arab Light to Asian destinations, bringing the OSP down to just 60c over the Oman and Dubai average. This is the lowest since 2020 folks! Cuts were seen across all grades: Arab Extra Light was trimmed by 20c to $1.10, while Arab Medium and Arab Heavy were cut by 60c to -55c and -$1.90, respectively.

Rhetoric is ramping. Mr Medvedev isn’t a fan of the idea Europe could use frozen Russian assets, calling it a “casus belli” and threatening they could be returned as reparations “by Russia’s fallen foes”. As a Russian source commented, “Now we have clarification what qualifies as war for Russia”.

The market for hot Russian assets is going hard core today. According to various reports, the owner of pornhub is getting the hots (the word again 🤣) for Lukoil assets and is unexpectedly coming from behind. We thought the assets would be stripped by a more true-blue American company. But hey, you never know, as money can lure a seller even in the cold of the winter. No need to parade, the suitor will come for you!

Deadlock. Status quo. Mexican standoff. Whatever you want to call it, the Russia-Ukraine negotiations are stuck in some super sticky mud. Rasputitsa, as the Russians call it. 🤣 Ukraine refuses to yield, supported by willing European bankrollers, are there any? Or any with money? 🤡 And Russia won’t leave without what it entered Ukraine for. Some waffly nonsense from the Kremlin about being prepared to meet the US as often as necessary to find an agreement didn’t reassure anyone that peace is anywhere near within reach.

Putin doesn’t like the Ukrainian attacks on Russian ships and threatened to retaliate with his own strikes on Ukrainian ships and facilities – and even a naval blockade! He also beat his chest and bristled at Europe, or any country supporting the sea drones, for its unacceptable demands, claiming Russia is ready for war at any time. Nobody wins!!

In the week ending 28 November 2025, exchange traded futures volumes were significantly lower w/w across instruments in the first three tenors – partly impacted by the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. Brent volumes saw the largest drop in the January tenor – down 58.75% – as traders rolled their positions ahead of expiry.

Dear reader, the market is so so boring. Brent trading for a few hours was comatose trading around $63.18 plus or minus a few cents. Pathetic really. ‘Most people closed their trading books for the year, they lost enough,’ said a trader. ‘It is unprecedented how the market does not react to any news, and this is because they got burnt in the past as whatever it is said is flipped around within a few hours.’

And we want to wish a warm farewell to Torbjorn Tornqvist, a man and a leader we knew fairly well. He stuck his head above the safety of the parapet one too many times and eventually something gets you. Maybe in the long past we battled hard but in that process, one learns mutual respect. So…godspeed!

November was a funny month: the optimists and pessimists were more divided than ever on the prospects for peace in Ukraine. The super glut narrative continued in full bloom. The shorts were licking their chops in anticipation of a market collapse and a big fat reward. But it was not to be even if it looked tantalizingly close for a while. After Ukraine accepted the (albeit dieted) US 19 point plan for peace, markets dumped with Brent dropping over a buck in a couple of minutes.

November was a month full of comedians, first, the US informed Ukraine about the terms it had to accept by yesterday, terms the US had negotiated with Russia or maybe with itself but without Ukrainian input, then Ukraine got p***d off while genuflecting nonstop and agreed to peace terms which favoured both of them and allowed Europe to steal Russian assets without any Russian input! Russia, meanwhile, is advancing rapidly in the field and will naturally not agree to anything less than it can with power of the gun.

November was a funny month: the optimists and pessimists were more divided than ever on the prospects for peace in Ukraine. The super glut narrative continued in full bloom. The shorts were licking their chops in anticipation of a market collapse and a big fat reward. But it was not to be even if it looked tantalizingly close for a while. After Ukraine accepted the (albeit dieted) US 19 point plan for peace, markets dumped with Brent dropping over a buck in a couple of minutes.