The Officials

OSPs came early! The Kingdom decided to surprise us on another quiet day and announce their OSPs for January. The Saudis didn’t disappoint and delivered what the change in Dubai structure implied – a 40c cut for Arab Light to Asian destinations, bringing the OSP down to just 60c over the Oman and Dubai average. This is the lowest since 2020 folks! Cuts were seen across all grades: Arab Extra Light was trimmed by 20c to $1.10, while Arab Medium and Arab Heavy were cut by 60c to -55c and -$1.90, respectively.

Rhetoric is ramping. Mr Medvedev isn’t a fan of the idea Europe could use frozen Russian assets, calling it a “casus belli” and threatening they could be returned as reparations “by Russia’s fallen foes”. As a Russian source commented, “Now we have clarification what qualifies as war for Russia”.

The market for hot Russian assets is going hard core today. According to various reports, the owner of pornhub is getting the hots (the word again 🤣) for Lukoil assets and is unexpectedly coming from behind. We thought the assets would be stripped by a more true-blue American company. But hey, you never know, as money can lure a seller even in the cold of the winter. No need to parade, the suitor will come for you!

Deadlock. Status quo. Mexican standoff. Whatever you want to call it, the Russia-Ukraine negotiations are stuck in some super sticky mud. Rasputitsa, as the Russians call it. 🤣 Ukraine refuses to yield, supported by willing European bankrollers, are there any? Or any with money? 🤡 And Russia won’t leave without what it entered Ukraine for. Some waffly nonsense from the Kremlin about being prepared to meet the US as often as necessary to find an agreement didn’t reassure anyone that peace is anywhere near within reach.

Putin doesn’t like the Ukrainian attacks on Russian ships and threatened to retaliate with his own strikes on Ukrainian ships and facilities – and even a naval blockade! He also beat his chest and bristled at Europe, or any country supporting the sea drones, for its unacceptable demands, claiming Russia is ready for war at any time. Nobody wins!!

In the week ending 28 November 2025, exchange traded futures volumes were significantly lower w/w across instruments in the first three tenors – partly impacted by the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. Brent volumes saw the largest drop in the January tenor – down 58.75% – as traders rolled their positions ahead of expiry.

Dear reader, the market is so so boring. Brent trading for a few hours was comatose trading around $63.18 plus or minus a few cents. Pathetic really. ‘Most people closed their trading books for the year, they lost enough,’ said a trader. ‘It is unprecedented how the market does not react to any news, and this is because they got burnt in the past as whatever it is said is flipped around within a few hours.’

And we want to wish a warm farewell to Torbjorn Tornqvist, a man and a leader we knew fairly well. He stuck his head above the safety of the parapet one too many times and eventually something gets you. Maybe in the long past we battled hard but in that process, one learns mutual respect. So…godspeed!

November was a funny month: the optimists and pessimists were more divided than ever on the prospects for peace in Ukraine. The super glut narrative continued in full bloom. The shorts were licking their chops in anticipation of a market collapse and a big fat reward. But it was not to be even if it looked tantalizingly close for a while. After Ukraine accepted the (albeit dieted) US 19 point plan for peace, markets dumped with Brent dropping over a buck in a couple of minutes.

November was a month full of comedians, first, the US informed Ukraine about the terms it had to accept by yesterday, terms the US had negotiated with Russia or maybe with itself but without Ukrainian input, then Ukraine got p***d off while genuflecting nonstop and agreed to peace terms which favoured both of them and allowed Europe to steal Russian assets without any Russian input! Russia, meanwhile, is advancing rapidly in the field and will naturally not agree to anything less than it can with power of the gun.

November was a funny month: the optimists and pessimists were more divided than ever on the prospects for peace in Ukraine. The super glut narrative continued in full bloom. The shorts were licking their chops in anticipation of a market collapse and a big fat reward. But it was not to be even if it looked tantalizingly close for a while. After Ukraine accepted the (albeit dieted) US 19 point plan for peace, markets dumped with Brent dropping over a buck in a couple of minutes.

Port activity and vessel numbers at key Indian ports increased across the board this week. There are more crude oil, product and LPG tankers in various key locations.

Russia also not going to blink, as Putin said he is ready to fight to the last Ukrainian life… very conciliatory! We only hope it doesn’t come to that. In the meantime, which fool is going to turn down that cheap oil? Probably not the Chinese who are totally disregarding ineffective Western sanctions. Russia’s central bank said the discount of Urals to Brent has increased to a monumental 23% in November, up from a 15% discount in Q2 and Q3, putting more pressure on the Russian budget. War is costly in every sense! Putin said, “Some people demand to keep on fighting until the last Ukrainian dies, Russia is ready for that,” continuing, “if Ukrainian forces leave the territories they hold, then we will stop combat operations. If they don’t, then we will achieve it by military means.”

Happy Thanksgiving, folks! Hopefully, you all received a thoughtful gift from your loved ones – much like China’s independent refiners received a very sweet one from Beijing. Sources have shown The Officials the full first batch of crude import quotas for 2026 (remember these allow for imports in December too!). And the appetite for crude is even higher than last year (look at page 3)