Vincent Wu
Research Associate, Flux
June Brent Below $100/bbl
Israel-Iran tensions disrupt oil routes; tanker attack, supply shifts, CNOOC boosts output
Published: March 26, 2026
Written by:
Vincent Wu
4 page report
This morning, Jun'26 Brent crude futures rose from opening around $97.92/bbl at 01.00 GMT to a high of $100.95/bbl at 08.38 GMT before returning to sub-$100, to $99.80/bbl at 10.35 GMT (time of writing).
Israel says it has killed IRGC Navy chief Alireza Tangsiri, who it accuses of overseeing the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route disrupted since the war began. The strike reportedly also killed several senior Iranian naval commanders, though Iran has not confirmed the claims. The blockade has intensified global energy concerns, given the strait’s critical role in oil flows. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said Iran’s leaders are “afraid” to admit negotiations and criticised NATO for not supporting the US in the conflict, "NATO NATIONS HAVE DONE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO HELP WITH THE LUNATIC NATION, NOW MILITARILY DECIMATED, OF IRAN". A Turkish-operated oil tanker carrying Russian crude was hit by a naval drone near the Bosporus Strait, causing damage but no injuries to its 27 crew members. The attack, described as a deliberate strike on the vessel’s engine room, highlights rising risks to shipping routes linked to the Russia-related oil trade. CNOOC plans to boost its domestic crude oil production to 65–70 million mt annually by 2030, up from about 61 million today. Its natural gas output is also expected to rise significantly, exceeding 40 billion cubic meters per year, up from the current 30 billion. A company executive noted that these targets are part of a broader growth strategy to strengthen the domestic energy supply. The Philippines has received a shipment of over 700kb of Russian crude oil as it grapples with an energy emergency triggered by disruptions to Middle East oil flows. The move follows the easing of US sanctions and reflects the country’s urgent effort to secure alternative fuel supplies amid soaring prices and limited reserves. Officials say the purchase is a short-term solution, with stocks estimated to last only about 45 days, and further sourcing options are being explored. Finally, the Jun/Jul and Jun/Dec Brent futures spreads are at $4.92/bbl and $16.30/bbl, respectively.
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