Giovanni Simonetti
Junior Data Analyst, Flux
Brent Softens to $111.67/bbl
Brent rises on Russia disruption; 40% exports offline, flows reshuffle, West Africa slow, Cuba crisis deepens.
The Jun’26 Brent Futures contract rallied from $109.78/bbl at 14:17 GMT to $112.02/bbl at 16:24 GMT, before softening slightly to $111.67/bbl at 17:00 GMT.
In the news, Russian oil producers have warned buyers they may declare force majeure on supplies from Baltic Sea ports as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure. Ukraine President Zelenskiy said Kyiv is maintaining pressure through long-range strikes. Key export hubs, including Ust-Luga and Primorsk, have been disrupted, halting or limiting oil loadings. Regional authorities report unprecedented attacks, and overall about 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity is currently offline due to damage, disruptions, and related incidents. In other news, a tanker carrying about 200kb of Russian fuel that was originally bound for Cuba has instead arrived in Venezuela after being stranded in the Atlantic for weeks and unexpectedly changing course, worsening Cuba’s severe energy crisis and recent blackouts. The diversion comes amid stricter US sanctions under President Trump, which restrict fuel imports to Cuba’s government. The vessel has not yet unloaded its cargo, while another Russia-linked tanker remains en-route to Cuba. West African crude trading for April has slowed despite global shortages triggered by disruptions linked to the Iran war. Sellers are holding back cargoes for domestic refining unless high bids emerge. Around 20 cargoes remain available, but owners are in no rush to sell. Reduced Middle Eastern output and blocked tanker routes have reshaped global flows, while high freight costs and competition from cheaper Russian and Iranian oil have further dampened demand, particularly from key buyers like China and India. Finally, at the time of writing, the Jun/Jul’26 spread is at $6.18/bbl and the six-month Jun/Dec’26 spread is at $20.22/bbl.
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