Giovanni Simonetti
Junior Data Analyst, Flux
Volatile Brent Rallies Above $109/bbl
Brent swings above $109 as Venezuela ramps output, Russia revenues rise, and Dangote refinery gains on jet fuel margins.
Published: April 27, 2026
Written by:
Giovanni Simonetti
4 page report
The Jun’26 Brent Futures contract initially declined to $105.87/bbl at 12:31 BST before rallying to $109.24/bbl at 16:22 BST. Prices have since softened to $108.15/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing).
In the news, Venezuela’s oilfield service firms are reactivating and repairing stored drilling rigs as a government review of oil and gas contracts signals potential growth in production. Following a January reform, new deals, expansions, and asset swaps have encouraged companies to prepare equipment for deployment, particularly in the Orinoco Belt and Lake Maracaibo. Previously idled due to 2019 US sanctions, the rigs could help raise output significantly. In other news, Russia’s oil and gas tax revenues are set to rise in May 2026 to about $8.7 Bn, boosted by higher oil prices linked to the Iran conflict. However, overall revenues for January–May will still lag behind 2025 due to weaker prices earlier in the year and a stronger rouble. Gains are also limited by Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure, constraining output. Despite benefiting from global supply shocks, Russia faces economic pressure, with a notable budget deficit reported in early 2026. Dangote Refinery is profiting from record global jet fuel margins, exporting much of its output to Europe where buyers pay premiums, while domestic airlines face soaring fuel costs and threaten shutdowns. Despite boosting local supply, Nigeria’s deregulated market keeps prices high, worsened by reliance on imported crude due to debt-linked oil commitments. The refinery operates at full capacity and could earn even higher margins with local crude access. Meanwhile, global energy disruption has intensified price pressures, prompting government intervention to support struggling airlines. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Jun/Jul’26 spread is at $6.79/bbl and the six-month Jun/Dec’26 spread is at $22.20/bbl.
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