Vincent Wu
This morning the Jul’26 Brent futures continued to trade higher into the $114/bbl level, where prices are $10 higher since yesterday.
There is also strong bullish momentum going into the Jun’26 Brent futures expiry, with the Jun/Jul spread trading over $10/bbl, implying Jun’26 flat price up to $124-125/bbl. Crude flat price is on track for a fourth consecutive monthly increase. Bullish flows returned this week, given the continued closure of the Strait and diminished prospects for any near-term solution to the conflict. According to an Axios report, President Trump is set to receive a briefing on Thursday for plans for a series of military strikes on Iran in hopes it will return to negotiations on its nuclear programme. The US DoJ has initiated the forfeiture process of two Iran-linked oil tankers seized by naval forces whilst enforcing the blockade. Venezuela’s PDVSA on Wednesday was trying to control a large fire at the 310kb/d Cardon refinery’s FCC, the company was restarting that unit following a blackout that left the entire refinery without power earlier this month. Iran’s Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad urged the public to cut consumption, calling “conservation and saving” a general principle “and a religious duty”, as he dismissed the impact of the US naval blockade. Wage talks between Norwegian oil firms and labour unions broke down on Wednesday and will switch to state-led mediation in a bid to prevent strike action by workers, industry group Offshore Norge said. US National Energy Dominance Council Director Jarrod Agen will travel to Venezuela on Thursday to meet with energy and mining executives and government officials, the White House said on Wednesday. Finally, the Jul/Aug and Jun/Dec Brent futures spreads are at $7.47/bbl and $26.60/bbl respectively.