Edward Hayden-Briffett
Research Analyst, The Officials
Bitcoin Drops to Key Lows, Inflation Warnings, Japanese Real Wages Rise
Bitcoin nears $60k as markets await payrolls, while central banks stay cautious on inflation and growth.
Bitcoin continues to drop to key lows, down to almost $60k.
It’s near its lowest since autumn 2024… Michael Saylor even sold bitcoin for the first time in 4 years, having previously said to sell your own kidney before selling bitcoin.
Broadly, markets are in wait-and-see mode ahead of May payrolls, expected at +85k (primary dealer median +95k) after April’s +115k gain. Treasury futures are little changed (TYU6 109-20), while benchmark yields remain near Thursday’s lows. Fed messaging remains hawkish at the margin: Kansas City Fed President Schmid said policymakers must assess whether holding rates is sufficient or whether further tightening may be needed if inflation remains sticky.
Former Fed economist Nellie Liang also warned against inflation becoming embedded – national average gasoline prices have dropped to $4.22/gal, down about 30c from the peak. Separately, reports suggested senior US officials have discussed potential government equity stakes in major AI firms.
Japan’s data surprised positively. April real wages rose 1.9% y/y (vs 1.7% expected), marking a fourth consecutive monthly gain. Cash earnings increased 3.5% y/y, while household spending fell only 0.5% y/y (vs -1.5% expected). Markets are now focused on next week’s BOJ meeting, where officials may slow the pace of bond-purchase reductions. JGB futures gained 10 ticks.
China’s PBOC conducted CNY215bn of 7-day reverse repos, resulting in a net CNY92bn injection, while fixing USD/CNY at 6.8157. India’s central bank left rates unchanged but announced measures to support the rupee after it hit record lows after WPI surged to 8.3% in April, driven by petrol prices up 32.4% and LPG up almost 11%.
Data today: NFPs, India Q1 GDP
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