Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
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Brent Declines Despite Iran Stopping More Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz
Brent eases as Iran claims Hormuz intervention and Gulf strikes, while US output and demand weaken and Romania declares emergency.
Published: July 31, 2026
Written by:
Donna Dong
The Oct’26 Brent futures contract has declined this afternoon, from $88.90/bbl at 13:57 BST to $87.33/bbl at 17:03 BST (time of writing).
Brent Futures Flat Price
In the news, Iran says that it has stopped 2 vessels attempting to leave the Strait of Hormuz and claimed a further 4 tankers had turned back after intervention by its forces, raising more concerns over global energy supplies following this week's drone attack on vessels at Egypt's Damietta port. While the Iranian claims could not be independently verified, shipping data from Kpler showed that two large crude tankers and two commodities vessels successfully transited the Strait. Kpler noted, however, that it cannot track vessels transiting with their AIS transponders switched off. Iran has also claimed strikes on US military assets in Bahrain and Kuwait, marking a renewed escalation in regional hostilities and dashing hopes for a swift return to diplomacy. According to Iranian state media, the attacks targeted Kuwait's Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base, with the Iranian military claiming it carried out precision drone strikes against fighter aircraft hangars, satellite communications systems and equipment depots in response to recent US attacks on southern Iran. Elsewhere, Romania has declared a nationwide state of emergency for August after record-low Danube water levels forced the shutdown of one of its nuclear reactors, reducing electricity generation. Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan said the government has allocated funding to reroute water from a canal to keep the second reactor connected to the grid, while also holding talks with Ukraine and neighbouring countries to secure power imports during peak-demand periods. In other news, US crude oil production fell to around 13.71mb/d in May, down roughly 2% from April's record high, according to EIA data. Total US demand for crude oil and petroleum products also declined by more than 3.5% to around 20.07mb/d, the lowest level since March 2025. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr’27) Brent futures spreads are at$3.16/bbl and $9.74/bbl, respectively.
Crude
This afternoon in Brent/Dubai, there was initially selling by major in Aug/Sep around $2.85/bbl. The Aug Brent/Dubai rallied from $6.50/bbl to $7.10/bbl. Then as this selling got taken out, there was trade buying of Aug/Sep and Aug/Oct spread, at $3/bbl and $4.60/bbl, respectively. The Aug Brent/Dubai sold off to $6/bbl, with some late Chinese selling as well. The other spreads were very quiet, some fund buying of Sep/Oct and Nov/Dec spreads. The boxes were also quiet, with only Jan/Feb Brent/Dubai box selling at $0.64/bbl. The Q1 Brent/Dubai continued to be offered by products.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Fuel Oil
Liquidity died somewhat into the afternoon on VLSFO. Strength was still present in the Sing 0.5 market with the Aug'26 Sing crack trading up to $28.20/bbl and Aug/Sep'26 Sing up to $67.25/mt. Aug/Sep'26 did come off somewhat due to end of month rolling but still ended up higher at $67.25/mt. Euro 0.5 remained fairly illiquid, the Aug'26 Euro crack traded around $9.80/bbl for the majority of the afternoon and Aug/Sep'26 Euro was around $29.25/mt.
HSFO was weaker this afternoon. Chinese are selling 380 flat price, the 380 crack sold down to -$3.15/bbl while the Aug/Sep'26 380 ended the month around $23.75/mt. The 380 E/W traded down as a result with Aug'26 down to $51.50/mt. The barge crack also drifted off with Aug'26 down to -$11.25/bbl. Aug/Sep'26 barges was weaker as a result ending the day around $8.25/mt.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Gasoline
It was a mixed and thin afternoon in gasoline. RBBRs were a touch firmer post US open, pushing Aug arbs up from 20c/gal to to 21.50c/gal with refiners on the bid. EBOB was weak, with Sep seeing sellside interest from $30.50/bbl to $29.50/bbl. Spreads were better offered as well as Aug/Sep got sold down from $70/mt to $65/mt. E/W was mixed and remained around -$9/bbl in Aug, with 92 cracks trading down to $25/bbl and Aug/Sep was well offered down to $6.70/bbl.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Naphtha
Gappy and illiquid afternoon in naphtha. Aug naphtha crack trades up from -$1.15/bbl to -$0.40/bbl during the window, with Aug/Sep stronger – seeing buying in the Aug/Sep crack roll up to $2.07/bbl. Some buying in Aug MOPJ crack at $3.60/bbl. Aug E/W trading $39/mt, seeing the boxes implied lower with Q4 E/W finding buying from trade at $38.25/mt.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
NGLs
This afternoon in NGLs, Aug/Sep FEI traded up to $34.50/mt before softening to $34/mt end window. There was Dec/Dec FEI buying at $89/mt before it eventually strengthened to $92/mt by the close. LST/FEI interest in both the prompt and deferred, with Sep trading at -$296/mt, and the Cal'27 arb was lifted at -$178/mt. There was also Cal'27 interest in both LST and C4 ENT / C3 LST, trading at 71.125c/gal and 18.375c/gal, respectively. LST also had some good deferred spread buying, with Q1/2'27 trading at 5c/gal, and Q4'26/ Q1'27 lifted at -0.5c/gal. In butane, it was a relatively quiet afternoon, with some C4 ENT buying in Sep/Oct at -0.25c/gal, and Q1/2'27 was getting sold at 15.75c/gal.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
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