Brent Firms Above $100 Despite Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline to Resume Exports

In the news, Saudi Arabia has restarted operations at its East-West Pipeline and could resume exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu later Tuesday. Reaching the suggested 40% of capacity will take a couple of days, a Reuters source said, while a full restart will take 6-8 weeks. Relatedly, Saudi Arabian crude oil exports rose about 3.3% m/m in July to 4.1mb/d, the highest level since March, according to JODI data released Tuesday. The kingdom's crude output climbed to 8.14mb/d from 7.12mb/d in June. Elsewhere, Libya's National Oil Corporation has said that an armed group shut valve 7 on the Sharara crude pipeline to Zawiya port on 21 Sep, sharply cutting output at the major oilfield. In other news, Russia's share of India's oil imports fell in August, while Middle East supplies rose as ADNOC sold oil from the region sourced outside the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE's state oil company has ramped up shipping operations, shuttling crude from its Hormuz-adjacent fields for sale from storage and export terminals at Fujairah and Sohar, while also buying and reselling crude from neighbouring producers like Iraq. India's Russian oil imports fell 16.5% m/m in August to about 2.1mb/d, though Russia remained India's top supplier, followed by the UAE and Venezuela. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Nov/Dec’26) and the 6-month (Nov/May’27) Brent futures contracts are at $4.01/bbl and $14.41/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated we saw better buying of Oct DFL and Oct/Nov roll, with Oct DFL trading up to highs of $5.95/bbl pre-window. We saw similar flow with selling out of 28-2 Oct 1-week, selling out of prompt Oct rolls, but strong buying out of back-end Oct into Nov rolls, with buying of 19-30 up to $2.65/bbl. In the physical window, we saw refiners offering Midland cargos, pushing the diff down to around $14. In the paper window, we saw trades buying 5-9 Oct CFD, but bids being hit by market makers. Post-window, we saw more of the same flow, although we did see a seller of 2-6 Nov 1-week selling at $1.10/bbl.

In VLSFO, Sing 0.5% saw regular volume traded but little price action in spreads and cracks, Oct/Nov'26 traded consistently between $44.25/mt and $44.50/mt, it briefly touched $44.00/mt post window but quickly bounced back up. Oct'26 Sing crack saw buyside interest on screen trading up to $23.00/mt to before trading back down to $22.80/bbl where it found support and traded for the remainder of the afternoon. Euro 0.5 was stronger this afternoon, Oct/Nov'26 was bid up from this mornings trading level of $10.00/mt top $11.50/mt where it traded during and after the window. Oct'26 Euro crack was bid up on screen from $0.00/bbl to $0.40/bbl.

It was a quiet afternoon in 380, Oct/Nov'26 traded between $34.75/mt and $35.25/mt in relatively low volume while the Oct'26 crack was also thin, it was offered down on screen from -$1.05/bbl to -$1.50/bbl. Barge spreads saw real buying this afternoon, Oct/Nov'26 was bid up from $11.75/mt to $14.00/mt while Nov/Dec'26 traded up from $14.00/mt to $15.50/mt. Oct'26 Barge crack was choppy, it oscillated between -$11.85/bbl and -$11.45/bbl.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw scale back selling on higher ICE gasoil, with Oct/Nov'26 trading from $5.20/bbl up to $5.55/bbl. E/W continued to see strong buying in Q4'26, trading up to -$99.00/mt, while Q2'27 traded up to -$62.00/mt. Regrade was mixed in the front, with Oct'26 trading at -$4.50/bbl, while Oct/Nov'26 kero saw buying, trading from $2.10/bbl up to $2.60/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads rallied throughout, with Oct/Nov'26 trading from $54.00/mt up to $59.75/mt, while Nov'26 cracks firmed to $86.20/bbl. European jet diffs were relatively stable, Dec'26 trading between $117.00/mt and $118.00/mt.

This afternoon gasoline was strong, as Nov'26 RBBRs rallied from $34.00/bbl to highs of $36.85/bbl, before coming off over a dollar post window. There was good scaleback arb selling from -1.50c/gal up to 0.00c/gal, pushing Oct'26 EBOB cracks up from $39.00/bbl to $41.00/bbl, with Cal offered at $21.40/bbl. Spreads saw mixed interest but Oct/Nov'26 firmed form $104.50/mt to $106.75/mt on stronger RBBRs. E/W drifted lower, trading down from -$8.30/bbl to -$8.80/bbl with 92 cracks and 92/MOPJ’s seeing scaleback selling up to $32.00/bbl and $30.00/bbl respectively.

This afternoon in naphtha was choppy but firmer in the front, with higher crude supporting spreads and MOC better bid. NWE naphtha cracks firmed from the morning, with Oct'26 bid up to -$3.85/bbl pre-window before easing to -$4.00/bbl post-window, while Q1'27 was around -$5.45/bbl and Cal 27 slipped to -$7.35/bbl; spreads recovered on higher crude and held around the morning levels, with Oct/Nov'26 at $28.00/mt, Nov/Dec'26 at $26.50/mt and Dec/Jan'27 at $17.00/mt post-window. E/W was relatively stable, with Oct'26 rebid from $60.00/mt this morning to $61.00/mt pre-window before settling at $60.75/mt, while Q1'27 held around $45.00/mt and the Nov/Dec'26 box traded at $2.00/mt. MOPJ stayed thin but front cracks were higher, with Oct'26 trading around $3.00/bbl pre-window, while spreads were broadly stable versus the morning, with Oct/Nov'26 at $29.25/mt and Nov/Dec'26 at $28.00/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI spreads initially softened before rallying back into close. Oct/Nov'26 FEI reach a low of $27.00/mt before closing the afternoon back at $31.00/mt, and Nov/Dec'26 traded end window at $26.50/mt having reached a local low of $23.00/mt earlier in the afternoon. In the deferred, Apr/Dec'26 27 was sold at $53.00/mt and Q1/2'27 was lifted at $87.00/mt, before strengthening to close the afternoon at $89.00/mt. Oct'26 LST/FEI continued to trade higher from morning levels, reaching -$373.00/mt where it closed the window, and in the deferred Q2'27 and Q4'27 were trading -$222.00/mt and -$189.00/mt respectively. In LST front spreads better bid to start the afternoon. Oct/Nov'26 getting sold 0.375c/gal before strengthening to 0.50c/gal, and in the deferred, Q4/1 was lifted at 2.75c/gal. Q1/2 27 LST also trading at 5.625c/gal, the same level as yesterday’s close. In butane, saw good deferred interest in spreads and flat price. Q1/2 27 trading at 18.375c/gal down to 17.75c/gal, and Q4'27 / Q1'28 was sold at 3.50c/gal. There was also a Cal 27 C4 ENT/MOPJ buyer at -$240.00/mt, and in Oct'26, there was a C4ENT/Nap buyer at -$255.00/mt.