Brent falls below $100/bbl alongside rumours US will release 30mb from SPR

In the news, we have heard rumours that 30mb could be released from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). If true, this would constitute over 10% of the remaining volume in the SPR. The US SPR inched lower in the week ending 11 Sep, falling by 400kb w/w to 284.6mb. Also in the US, California has become the last US state to clear sales of E15 gasoline in an attempt to lower gasoline costs. California gasoline prices are near $6.17/gal vs $4.47/gal nationally. The Renewable Fuel Associations said E15 could lower ​retail gasoline prices by roughly 20c/gal and save California's drivers at least $2.7 billion annually, citing a 2024 study by UC Berkeley and the US Naval Academy. Elsewhere, Massoud Suleman, Chairman of Libya's NOC, has said that output from the El Sharara oil field could be partially reduced following a closure of the Akakus oil pipeline. The oil field has a production capacity of around 300-320kb/d. Finally, at the time of writing, the Nov/Dec'26 and Nov/May'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $3.95/bbl and $14.03/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated Brent, we saw better buying pre-window, with Oct/Nov DFL recovering a bit, before coming back off post-window, with Oct DFL trading down to lows of the day at $5.05/bbl. Pre-window, we saw a size buyer of 12-16 Oct cal Nov trading at $4.00/bbl and a buyer of 28-2 Oct 1w in the window at $5.4/bbl before it got sold down to $5.2/bbl. We saw a trade and major buy-side CFDs with 5-9 Oct CFD trading at $8.25/bbl. In the physical window, we saw a major buy a WTI Midland cargo at curve and a trade selling another, pushing down the diff. Post-window, we saw strong buying of 26-30 Oct vs Cal Nov up to $2.10/bbl and bid over in size

This afternoon continued to be very quiet in Brent/Dubai. There was some bank buying of Mar'27 27 Brent/Dubai and 1st half 2027 Brent/Dubai. The Oct'26 traded lower into close, with Brent/Dubai boxes coming off as Dubai spreads remained relatively stronger. The Oct'26 Brent/Dubai traded down from -$0.15/bbl to -$0.38/bbl. Dubai spreads traded range-bound, Oct/Nov'26 trading between $4.60/bbl and $4.90/bbl.

In VLSFO, Sing 0.5 spreads were rather muted this afternoon, Oct/Nov'26 traded 50c lower from this mornings high to $44.00/mt where it consistently traded for the afternoon, Nov/Dec'26 traded around $35.25/mt. Oct'26 Sing crack saw buy-side interest on screen, trading up from $22.20/bbl to $22.60/bbl where it topped out and then came off to $22.30/bbl during the window. Euro 0.5 continued to struggle for liquidity this afternoon; Oct/Nov'26 traded down from $11.00/mt to $10.50/mt in the early afternoon and continued to trade at this level into and after the window. Oct'26 Euro crack was choppy in the early afternoon, trading between $0.70/bbl and $1.30/bbl; however, during the window it seemed to lose any support and traded down from $1.00/bbl to $0.15/bb on quite low volume.

In HSFO, 380 spreads saw slightly better volume than low sulphur spreads; Oct/Nov'26 was range-bound trading between $34.75/mt and $35.25/mt, closing out the window at $35.00/mt, and Nov/Dec'26 consistently traded at $23.00/mt. Oct'26 380 crack traded higher this afternoon due to real buy-side interest; it was bid up from -$2.15/bbl to -$1.60/bbl. Barge spreads were thin again this afternoon, with Oct/Nov'26 trading down from $12.00/mt to $11.50/mt during the window; Oct'26 barge crack saw better liquidity, trading up from -$12.65/bbl to -$12.35/bbl. Oct'26 380 e/w was implied and traded higher this afternoon after coming off this morning; it last traded at $68.25/mt.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw some selling in the deferred, with Mar/Jul'27 trading at $14.10/bbl, while Q3'26 E/W priced down to -$61.00/mt on crack selling. Oct'26 regrade was sell-side, trading from -$4.40/bbl down to -$4.95/bbl, while Oct/Nov'26 kero saw buying at $2.20/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads weakened into the window, Oct/Nov'26 from highs of $70.00/mt down to $65.25/mt last. European jet diffs saw lots of selling, with Oct'26 trading from $104.00/mt down to $93.00/mt, while Jun'27 2027 traded down to $115.00/mt.

This afternoon, in gasoline, mixed interest in EBOB MOC. Arbs were better offered in Oct'26, with selling down to -1.20c/gal at the end of the window and Oct'26 arbs pricing higher throughout the day due to stronger RBBRs – seeing Nov'26 RBBR trade up from 32.00c/gal handles to 34.50c/gal this afternoon. EBOB weaker this afternoon, with selling in Oct/Nov'26 crack roll at $9.90/bbl, with trade sell side of the Oct'26 crack into end of window at $39.10/bbl. Selling from refiners in Dec26/Dec'26 27 EBOB – with selling stepping down from $204.00/mt to $198.00/mt today.

This afternoon, naphtha was illiquid but firmer in the front, with MOC bid and front cracks/spreads finding support as Brent spreads strengthened, while backend cracks were better offered. NWE naphtha cracks firmed from the morning, with Oct'26 bid up to -$4.20/bbl before easing to -$4.45/bbl post-window, while Cal 27 held around -$7.30/bbl and Q1/Q2'27 stayed at $1.75/bbl; spreads were lower pre-window on crude but rebid later, with Oct/Nov'26 trading from lows of $26.25/mt to $27.00/mt post-window, Nov/Dec'26 at $25.75/mt and Dec/Jan'27 at $15.5, albeit largely illiquid. E/W was bid in the front pre-window, with Oct'26 up to $61.00/mt and the Oct/Nov'26 box up to $2.00/mt, while backend E/W stayed turned bid after being offered in the early afternoon, with Q1'27 at $44.50/mt post-window. MOPJ was thinner, though front cracks were better bid, with Nov'26 around $2.00/bbl post-window and Cal 27 around -$3.70/bbl; spreads were mostly illiquid but recovered from pre-window lows, with Dec/Jan'27 back up to $24.50/mt and Oct/Nov'26 closer to $29.00/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI flat price and spreads were trading at similar levels to the morning, with Oct/Nov'26 trading at both $31.00/mt and $32.00/mt, and Nov/Dec'26 closed the afternoon trading at $27.00/mt. As FEI remained relatively weak, Oct'26 LST/FEI continued to print around -$385.00/mt, up $2 from the morning’s closing level. Q1'27 LST/FEI was also getting lifted at -$292.00/mt, compared to last Friday’s close of -$300.00/mt. There was selling of the Q4/Q1'27 FEI/MOPJ box at $7.00/mt that eventually softened to $6.00/mt, and Dec'26 FEI/MOPJ was trading at -$58.00/mt. Quiet afternoon across the US curves, but in LST, there was some buying of deferred spreads, with Q2/3 27 trading at 1.25c/gal, and Q4/Q1'27 was trading at 2.75c/gal, down 0.125c/gal from last week’s close. In butane, C4 ENT also had deferred spread buying seeing Q4/Q1'27 trading at 7.875c/gal, and Q1/Q2'27 was lifted at 18.50c/gal, where it closed the afternoon. C4/C3 interest in both Q4'26 and Q1'27 was trading at 41.75c/gal and 35.875c/gal, respectively.