Brent Trades Choppy as Trump Halts Planned US Strikes on Houthis

In the news, US President Donald Trump halted planned US strikes on Yemen’s Houthis over the weekend after initially ordering preparations following a call with Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud on 17 Sep. Iran has warned that it will retaliate “without limitations” if US strikes proceed. Trump has said to Fox News that the options now are to “obliterate Iran,” let it “rot economically,” or reach a deal. Elsewhere, Europe is bracing for a Q4’26 jet fuel deficit, despite reaching out to far suppliers, including South Korea, which is set to increase jet exports to Europe to a four-year high this month, per shipping data. Europe has leaned on nations like Nigeria, the US, and Canada for jet fuel since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, cutting off roughly half of Europe's usual Middle East supply. South Korea has now emerged as the latest major source, with September imports running at 129kb/d — the highest since October 2022. In Bolivia, President Rodrigo Paz has announced the end of state diesel subsidies, shifting the country to a unified pricing model to help resolve chronic fuel shortages. Bolivia imports roughly 90% of its diesel, and the government spends about $55Mn weekly on subsidies, according to Paz. "Starting today, diesel will cost what it costs us to buy abroad," he said. The move replaces a dual-pricing system introduced in August, which charged high-volume consumers 18 bolivianos ($2.60)/L while maintaining a subsidised rate of 9.80 bolivianos for others. Paz said domestic prices will now track global benchmarks, falling if international costs decline. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May’27) Brent futures spreads are at$4.12/bbl and $15.34/bbl, respectively.

This morning in Dated we saw better selling of Oct/Nov'26 with the DFL roll sold down to $2.15/bbl and Oct'26 DFL sold down to $5.82/bbl on screen. We saw some buying of 6-12 Oct vs Cal Oct'26 but sell side interest in 5-9 Oct vs Cal Oct'26 and 19-23 Oct vs Cal Nov'26. Also saw strong buying of 2-6 Nov'26 1-week at $0.90/bbl. Further down curve we saw Dec'26 DFL, Jan'27 DFL and Feb'27 DFL buying.

This morning was very quiet in Brent/Dubai. We traded range-bound in Oct'26, between -$0.20/bbl to $0.20/bbl. There was some product trade selling of Dec'26 Brent/Dubai around $1.86/bbl. There was some trade buying of Oct/Nov'26 dub spread around $5.00/bbl. The spreads also traded range-bound between $4.60/bbl to $5.00/bbl. The window was better offered, the balmo spread pricing around $3.50/bbl weaker around $16.50/bbl.

It was a relatively quiet start to the week in fuel, Sing and Euro 0.5 were firmer this morning despite crude coming off. Oct/Nov'26 Sing 0.5 was bid up from $43.50/mt to $44.50/mt although spread liquidity was thin, cracks saw decent volume traded on screen, Oct'26 Sing crack saw consistent buyside interest trading up from $21.80/bbl to $22.45/bbl, post window it has started to weaken trading down to $22.20/bbl. Euro 0.5 was very thin this morning, spreads are yet to trade while the Euro crack traded at $1.90/bbl during the window.

In HSFO, the 380 complex initially strengthened this morning before coming off post window, Oct/Nov'26 380 opened higher and traded up to $36.25 /mt pre window, it then encountered real selling during the window and traded down to $35.75/mt, and continued to trade lower post window bottoming out at $35.00/mt. Oct'26 380 crack had similar price action, initially getting bid up on screen from -$2.70/bbl to -$1.90/bbl before selling down to -$2.25/bbl post window. Oct'26 380 e/w was implied around $5.00/mt higher at $68.00/mt, it has since come off to $64.00/mt. Barge spreads were also thin this morning, front two spreads have yet to trade while Dec/Jan'27 is trading 50c higher at $11.50/mt, Oct'26 Barge crack traded between -$12.75/bbl and -$12.65/bbl during the window, it was briefly bid up to -$12.00/bbl post window

This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were well offered, with Oct/Nov'26 hit from $7.50/bbl down to $6.70/bbl. Oct'26 E/W was also hit from highs of -$102.00/mt down to -$120.00/mt into end window. Regrade saw selling through combos, with Oct'26 trading lower to -$4.40/bbl, while Nov'26 traded down to $0.05/bbl. Prompt ICE gasoil spreads weakened, with Oct/Nov'26 trading from $77.50/mt down to $70.00/mt, while Nov'26 cracks sold off to $85.00/bbl last.

This morning in gasoline, 92 spreads initially open better offered with funds sell side – seeing Nov/Dec'26 crack roll getting hit $5.05/bbl. Spreads then find some strength into the window with trade buyside of Oct/Nov'26 at $11.00/bbl with EBOB spreads better supported also, with buying in Oct/Dec'26 at $183.50/mt with Oct'26 EBOB crack buying at $37.90/bbl. Some sellside interest in the Oct'26 arb from refiners at -3.5/gal this afternoon.

This morning in naphtha was softer early versus Friday close, with Brent lower over the weekend pushing spreads down and MOC choice before the tone turned slightly better bid into the window. MOPJ spreads were initially offered, with Oct/Nov'26 down from $29.00/mt - $28.00/mt, Nov/Dec'26 easing from $28.50/mt to $27.50/mt, Dec/Jan'27 at $25.50/mt and the Q1/2 spread trading at $65.00/mt; cracks were mixed, with Q4'26 trading $1.45/bbl early and Oct'26 bid up to $1.85/bbl before coming off and going bidless post-window. E/W was initially bid before the backend turned offered, with Oct'26 down from $59.50/mt last night to $58.00/mt before recovering to $59.00/mt, Q1'27 trading at $45.00/mt before going offered at $44.50/mt, Cal 27’ E/W trading $33.50/mt and the Oct/Nov'26 box bid up from flat to $1.25/mt. NWE naphtha was weaker on front cracks, with Oct'26 moving from -$4.65/bbl last night to -$5.00/bbl, while there was more interest in rolls/deferred cracks, with Oct/Nov'26 around flat and Cal 27/Cal 28 trading at -$7.30/bbl and -$9.20/bbl respectively; spreads were mixed but flipped bid mid-window, with Oct/Nov'26 firm around $28.00/mt and Dec/Jan'27 moving from $17.00/mt to $17.50/mt.

This morning in NGLs, there was some initial spread buying and flat price selling in FEI. Nov/Dec'26 FEI was getting lifted at $30.00/mt, before softening across the morning to close at $28.00/mt, and Oct'26 FEI was trading $830.00/mt. Oct/Nov'26 FEI initially opened at $32.50/mt before closing at a trading level of $31.00/mt. As FEI was weaker, LST/FEI also trading higher in the front, with Oct'26 trading up from -$397.00/mt to -$388.00/mt with real buying. Q4'26 LST/FEI was also getting lifted at -$367.00/mt for good size before closing the window $6 stronger. FEI/MOPJs had buying out of Nov'26 and Dec'26 at -$56.00/mt and -$57.50/mt respectively, both closing out $2 weaker. End window on screen, Oct'26 FEI flat price was getting lifted at $825.00/mt.