Brent Recovers While Joliet Refinery Remains Offline

In the news, Exxon Mobil said floodwater overwhelmed a pump at its 275kb/d Joliet, Illinois refinery, according to a filing, which also noted a containment boom had been deployed as part of the cleanup. Exxon had taken the refinery offline on 13 Sep after a power outage triggered its safety flare. In a statement, the company said the outage was traced to ComEd's primary and secondary power lines feeding the refinery, and that power has now been fully restored. Elsewhere, China's refined oil product exports rose 12.7% y/y in August, with jet fuel exports hitting a record high, according to customs data. Beijing had restricted exports of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel in mid-March to safeguard domestic supply amid Middle East risks but began easing those controls in mid-July and is expected to continue loosening them in September to capture higher overseas margins. Total refined oil product exports — including diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, and marine fuel — reached 6.01MMt in August. In Japan, oil refiners have secured sufficient crude supplies through November despite Red Sea concerns, as per the Petroleum Association of Japan. PAJ's Kito, who also chairs Idemitsu Kosan, Japan's second-largest refiner, said refiners had covered supply through November by drawing on stockpiles from previous national oil reserve releases, without needing further releases — though he couldn't rule out the possible need for additional draws, given how difficult the situation is to predict. In other news, South Korea will extend its fuel-tax cuts until the end of November, the finance ministry has stated. The current reductions — 15% on gasoline and 25% on diesel and butane — will be maintained to ease fuel costs amid Middle East-related oil price volatility. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May’27) Brent futures spread are at $4.52/bbl and $17.49/bbl, respectively.

This morning in Dated we saw better buying with Oct'26 DFL trading up to $6.35/bbl with Oct'26 rolls better bid. 19-23 Oct'26 1-week traded $1.00/bbl and saw buy side interest out of 21-25 Sep and 5-9 Oct vs Cal Oct'26 bid $3.55/bbl as well as continued buy side interest in 19-23 Oct vs Cal Nov'26 and 26-30 Oct vs Cal Nov'26 from last night. However we did hear some sell side interest in Balmo Sep'26 DFL and Cal Sep/Oct'26 Dated.

This morning in Brent/Dubai we traded slightly higher, but continued to chop around in a low liquidity environment. The only flow was selling of Dubai spreads, Oct/Nov'26 and Nov/Dec'26 spreads offered and buying of Oct/Nov'26 and Nov/Dec'26 box. The Oct'26 Brent/Dubai traded between $0.00/bbl to $0.50/bbl. The Oct/Nov'26 spread traded down from $5.20/bbl to $4.95/bbl, erasing all of yesterday's afternoon move higher. There was bank buying of Cal 28 Brent/Dubai, which traded $1.30/bbl. The balmo spread softened, with a slightly more offered window. We priced around $20.00/bbl, but were offered $16.60/bbl for Dubai Balmo spread OTC.

In VLSFO, it was a subdued start to the final day of the week in Sing 0.5. The Sing crack traded down with a lot of the pressure coming from the screen and MOC selling. The Sing crack traded as low $21.65/bbl, down to $22.45/bbl. There was some recovery post-window up to around $21.90/bbl. The Euro crack remained fairly resolute around $2.10/bbl, resulting in the front 0.5 E/W being implied a fair bit lower, around $126.50/mt. Sing spreads were fairly rangebound between $43.75/mt and $44.25/mt in Oct/Nov. Euro spreads were unmoved from the night before implied around $16.25/mt with not much liquidity.

In HSFO, the 380 E/W continued to drift off this morning. The Oct 380 E/W traded down to $56.00/mt in decent size from overnight levels of $62.00/mt. The barge crack found some strength as a result with buying up to -$12.80/bbl from -$13.40/bbl. 380 cracks did drift off, but there was not a huge amount of axe in the market, closing the morning around -$3.95/bbl. Barge spreads were largely illiquid, with Oct/Nov unmoved around $13.50/mt. 380 spreads were a touch lower on the weaker 380 E/W, with Oct/Nov trending down to $30.75/mt from $31.50/mt.

This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were well offered, with Oct/Nov hit from $8.50/bbl down to $7.50/mt. Oct E/W sold off aggressively, trading from -$80/mt down to lows of -$109/mt before recovering to -$102/mt. Kero spreads came in more buy side in the front, with regrade rolls also well bid. Prompt ICE gasoil spreads sold off overall, with Nov/Dec trading from $80/mt down to $75/mt, while Nov cracks weakened to $85.50/bbl.

Gasoline opened strong this morning before going better offered. 92 cracks traded at $32.30/bbl before getting sold into by a major down to $31.05/bbl, with Q1'27 valued at $16.20/bbl. Spreads were also better offered, Oct/Nov'26 traded down to $11.25/bbl but found buyside interest during the window up to $11.60/bbl. E/W was offerside, as it weakened from -$5.60/bbl to -$6.75/bbl and Q4'26 saw buying at -$5.10/bbl. EBOB opened lower at $37.30/bbl and firmed to $37.70/bbl on stronger RBBRs before coming off post window.

This morning in naphtha was choppy, with MOC initially offered as crude came off and E/W, spreads, and cracks all lower, before the tone turned better bid mid-window as crude recovered and front cracks found support. MOPJ cracks were softer, with Nov'26 trading at $0.80/bbl before coming off, Oct'26 trading at $0.50/bbl and the Oct/Nov'26 roll trading flat, while spreads were offered down on lower overnight Brent before flipping bid as crude rallied, with Oct/Nov'26 and Nov/Dec'26 both around $29.00/mt and the rest of the curve illiquid. E/W was weaker versus last night, with Oct'26 down from around $59.50/mt to $58.00/mt, the Oct/Nov'26 box flat and Q1/Q2'27 trading at $9.25/mt. NWE front cracks were mixed, with Oct'26 opening around -$5.70/bbl and offered down to -$6.10/bbl before rebidding to -$5.85/bbl, while Q1'27 softened to around -$6.00/bbl and Cal 27 moved from -$7.70/bbl to -$7.90/bbl; spreads were better supported than MOPJ, with Oct/Nov'26 trading from $28.00/mt to $29.25/mt, Nov/Dec'26 at $27.25/mt and Dec/Jan'27 around $18.50/mt.

This morning in NGLs, yesterday’s FEI weakness continued into today with flat price and spreads trading lower. Oct/Nov'26 FEI sold down to $30.00/mt from an opening level of $32.50/mt, before rebounding back slightly end window to close the morning at $31.50/mt. Nov/Dec'26 also trading lower down to $28.00/mt, compared to last night’s closing level of $31.50/mt. As FEI continued to be weaker, LST/FEI was trading higher in the front, with Oct'26 reaching a trading level of -$391.00/mt, $10 stronger than where it closed yesterday. Nov'26 LST/FEI also trading higher at -$360.00/mt, before softening slightly to end the window printing at -$362.00/mt. Had some buyside interest return in FEI/CP in both Oct'26 and Nov'26, trading at $177.00/mt and $175.00/mt, respectively, down roughly $10 each from yesterday’s levels. End window on screen, Oct'26 FEI flat price was lifted at $827.00/mt.