Brent Drops Sub-$100 Despite Bessent Threatening to “Shut Down” Iranian Airlines

In the news, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has threatened to "shut down" Iranian airlines by pressuring airports to refuse fuel and ticket sales. "How do we do that? That if they land, you cannot provide them with fuel. You cannot provide them with landing services, you cannot sell them tickets, or you will be knocked out of the dollar system," Bessent told CNBC; the threat comes as hopes build that this week's UN General Assembly gathering in New York could yield progress toward peace, buoyed by news that Iran will send a delegation led by President Masoud Pezeshkian. Relatedly, the Trump administration has proposed investing $5Bn in a new fund to help Middle East countries rebuild energy infrastructure damaged in the Iran war and reduce their reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas transport, as per the Wall Street Journal, citing US and Middle Eastern officials and documents. In Saudi Arabia, Saudi Aramco has loaded about 14mb of crude onto seven VLCCs inside the Persian Gulf, per ship tracking data. The kingdom has ramped up loadings from Gulf export terminals following an attack on its East-West pipeline. The loadings add to signs of a partial recovery in Saudi exports. In other news, French President Emmanuel Macron has written to the European Commission urging it to postpone new methane reporting rules for oil and gas importers, arguing they could create legal risks for importers amid tightening energy supplies. The EU's new rules, set to take effect January 1, will require monitoring and verification of methane emissions on fuel deliveries to the bloc, aiming to curb leaks of the potent greenhouse gas, with fines for non-compliance. Macron called for a one-year delay, pushing the start date to January 1, 2028; several EU members have already echoed this request. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May’27) Brent futures contracts are at $3.74/bbl and $13.36/bbl, respectively.

This morning in Dated we saw Oct/Nov'26 trade lower with spreads coming off, before some Oct'26 DFL buying came in last trading at $5.05/bbl. We saw 28-2 Oct'26 1-week sold down to $4.70/bbl and offered over by refiner and 12-16 vs 22-28 Oct'26 buying at $1.40/bbl. Saw a paper seller of 26-30 Oct vs Cal Nov'26 at $1.85/bbl which has been pretty well bid recently. Further down the curve saw selling Q1'27 DFL and Q2'27 DFL but a buyer of Q3'27 DFL.

This morning in Brent/Dubai we traded in a large range, initially trading lower in Oct'26 Brent/Dubai with decent buying in the Oct/Nov'26 Dubai spread by producer and trade. The Oct'26 Brent/Dubai traded down from -$0.50/bbl to -$1.00/bbail, but then, following the weaker window, with large selling by tradehouse and Chinese in the Oct/Nov'26 Dubai spread, the Oct'26 Brent/Dubai rallied back up to -$0.25/bbl. Flows OTC outside of the Oct/Nov'26 Dubai spread were very quiet. There was some refiner selling of Q1'27 Brent/Dubai, and bank buying of Mar'27 2027 Brent/Dubai. The boxes traded range-bound, initially lower with strength in Dubai spreads, but reversing all of these moves by the end of the morning session.

In VLSFO, there was better liquidity in Sing 0.5% this morning. Spreads were choppy, with Oct/Nov'26 initially trading up from $44.00/mt to $45.00/mt before selling back down to $43.50/mt post window. Oct'26 Sing crack was characterised by similar price action; it was bid up on screen from $22.40/bbl to $22.95/bbl in the lead-up to the window; however during and after the window it came under sell-side pressure, selling back down to $22.35/bbl. Euro complex weakened this morning; spreads were thin down the curve, but Oct/Nov'26 saw slightly better volume than usual, opening lower at $10.00/mt and consistently trading at that level. Oct'26 Euro crack could not find any support this morning; it sold off from $0.50/bbl to -$0.75/bbl on only 30kb of volume and last traded at -$0.60/bbl.

In HSFO, 380 price action was similar to yesterday morning, trading higher in the morning in decent volume and then coming off post window. Oct/Nov'26 380 traded up from $36.00/mt to $37.50/mt before getting offered back down to $35.00/mt, Oct'26 crack traded up from -$1.35/bbl to -$0.85/bbl and was then offered back down to -$1.35/bbl on screen. Barge spreads were relatively thin this morning. Oct/Nov'26 traded around $11.75/mt. There was decent volume traded on Oct/Nov'26 crack roll at -$0.90/bbl, while Oct'26 crack traded between -$12.15/bbl and -$12.00/bbl.

This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were well offered into Dec, with Oct/Nov hit from $5.35/bbl down to $5.05/bbl. E/W saw selling in Oct, hit from -$115/mt down to -$120/mt, while Q4 saw scale back buying between -$103/mt and -$105.50/mt. Regrade saw selling down to $2.50/bbl in Q1, while kero spreads saw some buying in Oct/Nov, trading from $1.50/bbl up to $2.10/bbl. Prompt ICE gasoil spreads sold off overall, with Oct/Nov trading from $62.50/mt down to $52.50/mt, while Nov cracks sold from $85/bbl down to $82.50/bbl.

This morning in gasoline, the East was weaker. 92 cracks came off from $31.00/bbl to $30.60/bbl in Oct'26, with Q1'27 valued at $17.05/bbl. Spreads were also better offered, with Oct/Nov'26 trading down from $10.50/bbl to $10.20/bbl. E/W softened from -$7.60/bbl to lows of -$8.50/bbl in the front, with EBOB remaining slightly more resilient. EBOB cracks opened at $38.90/bbl and remained range-bound during the window. Spreads also continued to see buy-side interest on lower crude, with Oct/Nov'26 trading around $105.00/mt.

This morning in naphtha was choppy amidst the crude moves; spreads were ultimately offered, while front cracks found support into the window. MOPJ cracks were firmer, with Oct'26 opening around $2.30/bbl and bid up to $2.55/bbl, while the Oct/Dec'26 crack roll traded at $1.05/bbl; spreads softened from last night, with Oct/Nov'26 down from $30.00/mt to $29.00/mt and Oct/Dec'26 trading at $58.00/mt before going illiquid post-window as offers didn’t step down. E/W was mixed through the morning but ultimately softer in the front, with Oct'26 down from $61.00/mt to $60.00/mt and the Oct/Nov'26 box around $1.25/mt vs $2.00/mt at close, though Q4'26 was bid around $59.50/mt. NWE naphtha was stronger on front cracks through lower crude and gasnap flows, with Oct'26 moving from around -$4.40/bbl to -$4.00/bbl, while the Oct/Nov'26 and Nov/Dec'26 crack rolls traded around $0.40/bbl and $0.45/bbl respectively; spreads were offered lower and then illiquid, with Oct/Nov'26 down from $28.50/mt to $28.00/mt, Nov/Dec'26 at $25.00/mt and Dec/Jan'27 easing from $16.75/mt to $16.00/mt.

This morning in NGLs, FEI spreads were softer, with Oct/Nov'26 trading down to $31.00/mt from an opening level of $32.00/mt, and Nov/Dec'26 closed the window at $27.00/mt, $2 weaker than yesterday’s closing level. Limited interest in LST/FEI today in a thinner morning, but Nov'26 was trading at -$360.00/mt, and post-window Oct'26 was sold at -$379.00/mt for small size. There was also some Cal 27 LST/FEI buying at -$223.00/mt, just $1 stronger than yesterday’s closing level. FEI/CP in Oct'26 initially traded at yesterday’s trading level of $175.00/mt, but as CP found a bid, softened to close the morning printing at $169.50/mt. Oct/Nov'26 CP traded up to $32.00/mt from $28.00/mt yesterday. End window on screen, Oct'26 FEI flat price was lifted at $817.50/mt.