Brent finds support below $96/bbl

Meanwhile, in the news, rumours are rising about a potential removal of US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, despite President Trump's vocal support for him. In other news, there was a reported disruption at Jeddah International Airport on 05 Nov. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has reportedly asked Russia to reopen the Druzhba pipeline to Germany, six months after Moscow suspended the route. The Iranian parliament announced this week that it will be exempting India, China, Iraq and Qatar from its oil transit restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. Israel's joint list alliance of Arab-led parties says it will back opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot to form a government. Finally, at the time of writing, the Jan/Feb'27 and Jan/Jul'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $3.20/bbl and $13.10/bbl, respectively.

Another busy afternoon, with the prompt leading the Dated complex higher. Balmo DFL climbed from $1.27/bbl to $1.99/bbl. Dec'26 DFL slid from $4.31/bbl to a $4.00/bbl low just before the window, with size trading at $4.11/bbl on the way back; $4.25/bbl at the end of the window and last $4.20/bbl in size. Nov/Dec'26 Dated was paid at $0.90/bbl repeatedly in size, and Dec/Jan'27 Dated climbed from a $2.85/bbl low, where size went through, to $3.08/bbl at the end of the window against real selling on the way up, last $3.13/bbl.

The physical window saw offers lifted: a producer offered a Midland cargo and a tradehouse showed two Forties cargoes, the prompt one very aggressively until another tradehouse lifted it, while a major lifted a trade house’s Brent offer. The paper firmed through it, with the 16-20 Nov'26 CFD going from $1.95/bbl to $2.10/bbl and Dec'26 DFL from $4.05/bbl to $4.25/bbl, and balmo DFL kept climbing after the window.

The days market was active. 16-20 v 23-27 Nov'26 traded flat and pushed up to $0.10/bbl, with buying at flat and $0.10/bbl; 0.10 at the end of the window and back at flat in size after. 09-13 v 16-20 Nov'26 was bid up from -$0.96/bbl to -$0.80/bbl, and $02.00/bbl-08 Dec'26 v Dec'26 was bought at $1.09/bbl in size post-window. We also saw Dec'26 v 18-24 Dec'26 going at $0.48/bbl and $03.00/bbl-09 Dec'26 v Dec'26 sold at $0.65/bbl pre-window, while 09-13 v 23-27 Nov'26 was hit at -$1.40/bbl before firming.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai, we drifted lower, with Dec'26 Brent/Dubai trading down from -$1.02/bbl to -$1.30/bbl before coming off sharply late to -$1.57/bbl. There was buying of Dec'26 Brent/Dubai at the lows by refiners. The Dubai spreads were well bid; the Dec/Jan'27 Dubai spread was up from $2.07/bbl to $2.52/bbl. The Brent/Dubai boxes sold off; the Dec/Jan'27 box was down from $0.21/bbl to $0.01/bbl. This was largely a move lower in Brent/Dubai due to Chinese selling of Feb'27 ICE vs Nov'26 Dubai and Feb'27 ICE vs Dec'26 Dubai, no real buying and poor liquidity leading to market makers chasing lower.

Sing 0.5 continued to strengthen into the afternoon; spreads were better bid, with Dec/Jan'27 trading up $3.50/mt to $30.00/mt in the early afternoon and then consistently trading at this level; Jan/Feb'27 traded $1.00/mt higher to $24.25/mt. Dec'26 Sing crack continued to be aggressively bid up on screen, particularly in the early afternoon, where it traded up from $16.30/bbl to $18.00/bbl; it then retraced to $17.25/mt and traded at this level in the window. Dec'26 0.5 E/W traded 3 dollars higher to $99.00/mt. Euro spreads saw slightly better liquidity and continued to trade at elevated levels; Dec/Jan'27 traded at $19.50/mt and Jan/Feb'27 at $14.25/mt. Dec'26 Euro crack came off 40c to $1.60/bbl in the early afternoon and then consistently traded at this level.

After a very strong morning, 380 complex came off this afternoon with Dec/Jan'27 traded down from $26.50/mt to $24.75/mt and Jan/Feb'27 traded at $17.50/mt, Dec'26 380 crack came off from -$1.50/bbl to -$2.00/bbl by window start and then slipped to -$2.50/bbl post window, Dec'26 380 E/W was implied 7 dollars lower to $70.00/mt. Barge complex remained thin, particularly spreads with Dec/Jan'27 and Jan/Feb'27 trading at $10.00/mt and $7.50/mt, respectively. Dec'26 Barge crack traded up 50c to -$13.30/bbl but then sold back down to -$13.75/bbl in the window.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were quiet, with some Feb/Mar'27 selling at $3.60/bbl. E/W saw buying in Q2'27 at -$56.50/mt, while Q3'27 EFS was on the sell side. Regrade rolls were better offered in Mar/Jun'27, trading at $40.00/bbl, while deferred regrade remained sell side, with Q4'26 trading from $2.00/bbl down to $1.90/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads continued higher, with Dec/Jan'27 trading from $40.00/mt up to $43.00/mt, while Jan'27 futures cracks traded to highs of $70.90/bbl before weakening to $69.60/bbl.

This afternoon in Gasoline, mixed interest in MOC, with the Dec'26 EBOB crack getting hit $12.95/bbl at the end of the window. Dec/March'27 EBOB was better offered this afternoon, with buying in Dec/June'27 EBOB from a trade, with buying stepping up from $13.25/mt to $14.25/mt. Some selling in Dec'26 E/W this afternoon at -$1.90/bbl, with E/W rallying post-window on the back of some crack buying in Dec'26 at $11.20/bbl.

This afternoon in naphtha, MOC was balanced, with stronger Brent supporting spreads while NWE cracks eased from the window highs. NWE Dec'26 cracks rallied to -$3.85/bbl before ending at -$4.10/bbl, after trading range-bound through the afternoon; Q1'27 traded up to -$5.00/bbl and Cal 27 saw selling at -$7.35/bbl. The Dec/Jan'27 crack roll was around $0.15/bbl and Q1/Q2'27 bid at $2.10/bbl, off highs of $2.15/bbl. Spreads strengthened, with Dec/Jan'27 up from $22.00/mt this morning to $23.00/mt, Dec/Apr'27 trading for size up to $94.00/mt, and Dec/Mar'27 at $70.75/mt.

E/W saw better backend interest, with Dec'26 ending at $63.50/mt, broadly steady versus this morning, while Q1'27 recovered from $51.75/mt to $53.50/mt in-window after being offered throughout the day; Q1/Q2'27 reached $11.25/mt and Cal 27/28 were at $40.50/mt and $24.75/mt, respectively. MOPJ cracks were illiquid post-window, with Dec'26 around $3.00/bbl on a flat-price basis through the afternoon versus $3.10/bbl this morning; spreads were bid into the window on Brent strength, with Dec/Jan'27 up to $29.50/mt and Jan/Feb'27 at $29.00/mt.

This afternoon NGLs, FEI structure was stronger, with Dec/Jan'27 FEI trading up to $60.00/mt. Dec/Feb'27 FEI also traded at $116.00/mt. As a result, FEI/MOPJs continued to be strong, with Q1'27 FEI/MOPJ trading up to -$12.00/mt and a high of -$10.00/mt pre US open. This was up from -$17.00/mt seen this morning.

FEI/CP was also stronger in the afternoon as FEI was bid. Dec'26 FEI/CP traded at $265.00/mt and then $273.00/mt, up from $249.00/mt this morning. The arb started weaker this afternoon as FEI was better bid than LST at the open. Dec'26 Arb traded at -$345.00/mt and -$347.00/mt, which was down from -$342.00/mt seen this morning. However, with US trades bidding LST flat price returning later in the afternoon, the Arb strengthened to print -$340.00/mt in Dec'26 by the close.

LST Spreads were bid this afternoon by real. At the US open, Q1/Q2'27 LST was aggressively bid by trade types trading up to 15.50c/gal after opening at 15.25c/gal, which was up from 14.375c/gal pre-open. This stepped off slightly as LST found more offers down to 15.00c/gal, but rebounded to 15.50c/gal to close. In the front, Dec/Jan'27 LST was also stronger, trading up to 2.50c/gal from 2.25c/gal pre-window.

There was some real buying of the Dec/Jan'27 Butane cross arb ENT/CP, which traded at -$84.50/mt. Overall, Butane spreads were slightly illiquid but weaker. Dec/Jan'27 Butane weakened to 10.625c/gal from 11.00c/gal yesterday.