Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Declines to $70.71/bbl
OPEC+ weighs April output hike as Druzhba damage disrupts flows and Europe seeks alternative crude routes.
The Apr’26 Brent futures contract has declined, from $71.49/bbl at 13:15 GMT to $70.71/bbl at 16:40 GMT (time of writing).
In the news, Reuters sources have reported that OPEC+ is considering increasing oil production by 137kb/d in April, as it readies for summer demand and a price boost amid tensions between the US and Iran. The increase in output after a three-month pause would enable OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and other members, such as the UAE, to regain market share. This occurs at a time when other OPEC+ members, such as Russia and Iran, are dealing with Western sanctions, while Kazakhstan recovers from multiple setbacks in oil production. Elsewhere, the European Commission has stated that Croatia is evaluating whether it can lawfully import Russian crude oil by sea to supply Hungary and Slovakia, following damage to the Druzhba pipeline through Ukraine. The Croatian government has not responded, though it has said its Adria pipeline can import more oil, and that this additional supply does not need to be Russian. In related news, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has stated that repair work on the Druzhba pipeline (used to transport Russian oil to Eastern Europe) cannot be completed swiftly, despite appeals from the European Union and protests from Hungary. Zelenskiy, speaking to reporters, further added that Russian strikes had destroyed the pipeline linking the Black Sea port of Odesa with Druzhba. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.17/bbl and $2.55/bbl, respectively.
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