Brent Doji around $107.50

Nov’26 Brent futures reached a daily high of $108.65/bbl at 09:29 BST, and dropped to $107.25/bbl at 11:08 BST. The extent of the damage to the E/W pipeline is visible now, and Reuters report a 5-6 week repair time. Iran denied involvement in last week’s attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei accusing the US of spreading “false news” to deepen regional divisions. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels captured more strategic territory near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, government and Houthi officials said today. Houthi rebels deployed fighters to the Hanish islands, 100 miles north of the entrance to the strategic strait, after Yemeni government forces withdrew from the territory. Oman's government said a meeting scheduled for Monday in Muscat with officials from Iran and other regional countries, to discuss future control of the Strait of Hormuz, was being postponed "in the interests of consensus." President Trump called on Ukraine to stop targeting Russian oil refineries and diesel infrastructure, arguing that the strikes are contributing to fuel shortages and "hurting the world". Ukraine has continued drone strikes on Russian refining and fuel infrastructure, including reported attacks in Krasnodar and Tatarstan over the weekend. China Gas Holdings signed a 20-year agreement with Venture Global to receive 0.5mtpa of US LNG from 2030. The deal comes as China and the US prepare for renewed diplomatic engagement and represents a resumption of long-term US-China LNG contracting after China halted US LNG imports following the introduction of tariffs in 2025. Finally, the Nov/Dec’26 and Nov/May’27 Brent futures spreads are at $5.47/bbl and $22.09/bbl, respectively.

Strong again this morning in dated with Balmo DFL trading up to $16.00/bbl with 14-18 Sep/Cal Oct'26 lifted high at $15.00/bbl and mms paying $3.50/bbl on 14-18 Sep'26 1w. However did see balmo DFL seller come in on screen. Oct/Nov'26 was also strong with the DTD roll trading up to $8.20/bbl then implied higher and $26.00/bbl-30 Oct'26 1w lifted up to $1.35/bbl. Also saw 23-27 Nov'26 1w trading $1.15/bbl.

This morning in Brent/Dubai was very quiet. We opened lower in Oct'26 Brent/Dubai, there being some selling of Oct'26 and Nov'26 Brent/Dubai by Chinese. The Dubai spreads opened higher and traded strong on screen, up around $1.00/bbl to trade between $7.00/bbl to $7.15/bbl. The Oct/Nov'26 box traded lower from -$2.10/bbl to -$2.39/bbl. There was smalls product selling of Q1'27 and Q2'27 Brent/Dubai. We continue to price strong, the balmo around $22.50/bbl.

Sing 0.5 spreads saw real buying this morning, Oct/Nov'26 initially opened $5 higher at $41.00/mt; this strength continued and it was bid up to $44.50/mt, Nov/Dec'26 was not as strong, trading between $34.50/mt and $35.35/mt. Oct'26 crack traded in large volume primarily on screen, it initially opened higher at $20.60/bbl before selling back down and bottoming out at $19.95/bbl by window end, it was bid back up to $20.50/bbl post window. It was a thin morning in Euro 0.5, Oct/Nov'26 traded at $19.00/mt while Oct'26 crack traded between $2.45/bbl and $2.60/bbl.

380 complex saw majority of volume traded this morning, spreads were choppy, Oct/Nov'26 opened at $42.00/mt before getting bid up to $43.75/mt, offered down to $40.00/mt and then bid back up to $42.00/mt, Nov/Dec'26 was similarly choppy oscillating between $28.00/mt and $30.00/mt. Oct'26 380 crack opened much higher trading at -$1.40/bbl in low volume before getting offered down to -$2.50/bbl on screen where it found support. Barge spreads were better bid this morning with Oct/Nov'26 getting bid up from $21.25/mt to $22.50/mt while Oct'26 crack was range-bound trading between -$12.95/bbl and -$12.75/bbl.

This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw good buying initially into Q1, with Oct/Nov trading up to $11.50/bbl lifted, before coming off to $10.00/bbl last. Front E/W also went well bid early on, lifted to -$55.75/mt, before getting offered post window down to -$68/mt hit on screen. Kero spreads were offered in Nov/Feb at 19, while regrade rolls were bid, with scale back Oct regrade bids between -$2/bbl and -$2.90/bbl. Prompt ICE gasoil spreads opened higher and then sold off, with Oct/Nov trading from $90/mt down to $85.75/mt, while Nov cracks sold off from $84.20/bbl to $82.20/bbl.

This morning in gasoline 92 MOC was better offered. The East opened strong, with Oct'26 cracks trading at $28.80/bbl before weakening to $27.70/bbl post window. Spreads also opened higher with Oct/Nov'26 seeing buyside interest up to $11.50/bbl from refiners but got sold down to $11.20/bbl as cracks came off. E/W fell from -$5.50/bbl to -$7.75/bbl with EBOB proving resilient: cracks traded around $35.75/bbl and Oct/Nov'26 saw buying up to $105.00/mt.

This morning in naphtha was firmer overall, with MOC better bid, spreads opening higher versus Friday and cracks supported, while E/W was bid but not aggressively. MOPJ was stronger on flat-price buying from petchems, with Oct'26 cracks around $3.20/bbl and otherwise illiquid, while spreads were better bid and traded in smalls, leaving Oct/Nov'26 at $42.50/mt, Nov/Dec'26 at $41.00/mt, Oct/Jan'27 at $115.50/mt and Jan/Feb'27 at $32.50/mt. E/W opened lower versus Friday but was supported by bids through the morning, with Oct'26 moving from $63.00/mt to $65.00/mt, while the backend was also bid with Q1'27 around $49.00/mt but no trades. NWE naphtha cracks were initially weaker before recovering, with Oct'26 trading down to -$4.40/bbl before coming back to -$4.10/bbl, while the Oct/Nov'26 roll was around -$0.30/bbl, Q1'27 at -$4.65/bbl and Cal 27 around -$6.75/bbl. Spreads saw better liquidity in the Q1'27 region than recent weeks, with Dec/Jan'27 offered down from $25.00/mt to $24.50/mt before recovering to $25.00/mt, Jan/Feb'27 around $28.00/mt and Oct/Nov'26 moving from $40.50/mt to $41.00/mt.

A quieter start to the week this morning in NGLs. There was initially some early FEI flat price buying out of Jan'27 at $763.00/mt. FEI spreads trading up on the day, with Oct/Nov'26 trading up to $37.50/mt from an opening level of $36.00/mt, and Nov/Dec'26 was trading at $33.00/mt, compared to Friday’s closing level of $30.00/mt. FEI/CP interest in both prompt and deferred, with Nov'26 getting sold at $205.00/mt, and Q1'27 lifted at $137.00/mt, before closing the morning at $142.00/mt on the back of FEI strength. Also had selling of Oct'26 CP/MOPJ at -$300.00/mt, down from Friday’s close of -$294.00/mt. End window on screen, FEI flat price was getting lifted at $872.00/mt.

Three central bank meetings this week:

Wednesday; US Fed, with 87% chance the hike priced by the OIS, and 89bp hikes over the next 12 months.

Thursday: BOE just 20% chance they hike but 107bp hikes over the next 12 months.

Friday: BOJ, market sees 100% chance they hike this week and 92bp hikes over the next 12 months.

Investment grade credit is splitting in two. One year ago, IG ex-AI traded just 20bps tight to the broader IG index - today it trades 50bps wide, a record divergence, and is increasingly pricing like junk. The AI-adjacent names are hoovering up capital and institutional demand, leaving everything else to reprice wider and drawing liquidity away from Treasuries in the process.

U.S. 10-year currently at 4.96%.

Equities now account for a record 48.2% of total US household financial assets. This includes stocks held directly, as well as equities held indirectly through life insurance companies, private pension funds, government retirement funds, and mutual funds. This figure has risen +13.9 percentage points since the 2022 bear market. By comparison, at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak, US households held 38.7% of their financial assets in equities. For perspective, this proportion never exceeded 20% between 1974 and 1992.