Brent Firms as Saudi Aramco Evacuates Dhahran HQ

In the news, Saudi Aramco told staff to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters and work remotely, as fighting between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis intensifies. The instruction follows a wave of Houthi attacks on the kingdom targeting the company and Saudi airports. It would be the company's first evacuation since the Iran war began, though the reason for the move was unclear and Aramco did not immediately comment. Elsewhere, India's crude imports from the Middle East surged in September to about 2.8mb/d, the highest since February and back to pre-war levels. Refiners snapped up spot cargoes as Gulf producers and traders ramped up shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the Gulf's share to about 54% of India's overall imports. Russian imports moved the other way, falling about 14% m/m to roughly 1.8mb/d amid stiff competition with China, as their share of India's purchases dropped to 33.5% from 46.6%. In other news, the US Office of Foreign Assets Control has pushed back the deadline for companies to negotiate the purchase of Lukoil's foreign assets to 21 Nov. The extension follows Carlyle Group's withdrawal from the bidding earlier this month. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’27) and 6-month (Dec/May’27) Brent futures spreads are at $4.11/bbl and $17.19/bbl, respectively.

Choppy market again this afternoon, with the Dated complex rallying early before the prompt gave it back in the window. Nov'26 DFL pushed up from $8.34/bbl to $9.78/bbl despite real selling, then sold off through the window to $8.20/bbl, last $8.55/bbl. Dec'26 DFL held up better, climbing from a $5.80/bbl low to $6.45/bbl and last $6.30/bbl in size, about 95c up on the day, so the Nov/Dec'26 DFL roll came off from $3.20/bbl to $2.30/bbl. Nov/Dec'26 Dated was sold at $6.90/bbl and $7.05/bbl near its $7.10/bbl high before falling to $5.98/bbl at the end of the window, around 20c under last night’s close. In the physical window, a major and a tradehouse bid the Midland curve aggressively, but Forties set the differential instead and the prompt sold off into the close.

The days market was led by December'26: daily DFL 07-11 Dec'26 was paid up from $6.95/bbl to $7.20/bbl, with 21-24 Dec'26 picked up at $4.60/bbl and Dec'26 v 23-31 Dec'26 bought at $2.10/bbl pre-window. Also saw a large daily DFL 16-20 Nov'26 sale at $7.20/bbl and 02-06 v 09-13 Nov'26 going at $1.80/bbl at the end of the window.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai was choppy, trading in a large range in the Nov'26 between -$3.10/bbl to -$3.67/bbl. We drifted lower to -$3.48/bbl before bouncing back to -$3.23/bbl, held range-bound around -$3.30/bbl, then sold off into the close at -$3.66/bbl. On the dip there was buying of Dec'26 Brent/Dubai around -$3.10/bbl and tradehouse buying of Jan'27 Brent/Dubai in size around -$2.70/bbl. There was continued buying of Dec'26 and Jan'27 dated Dubai throughout the day. There was tradehouse buying of Q1/Q2'27/Q3'27 Brent/Dubai box fly, the same buyer who had previously been buying the Q2/Q3'27 Brent/Dubai box. There was some fund buying of Oct/Nov'26 Dubai spread around -$0.20/bbl. The Dubai spreads were well bid, the Nov/Dec'26 up from $4.03/bbl to $4.70/bbl. The Nov/Dec'26 box traded down from -$0.27/bbl to -$0.71/bbl, while the Dec/Jan'27 stayed range-bound.

Sing 0.5 saw real buying in the early afternoon, Nov/Dec'26 was bid up from $31.50/mt to $33.50/mt pre-window before liquidity dried up while Dec/Jan'27 traded up from $32.75/mt to $34.50/mt over the same period. Nov'26 Sing crack was aggressively bid up from $25.40/bbl to $26.80/bbl where it topped out, it traded down to $26.60/bbl where it traded during the window, this pulled the Nov'26 0.5 E/W up from $154.00/mt to $167.50/mt. Nov'26 Euro spreads saw limited price action with Nov/Dec'26 and Dec/Jan'27 trading at $14.50/mt and $13.50/mt, respectively, Nov'26 Euro crack traded down to $0.20/bbl this morning and then traded between this level and $0.35/bbl.

Real buying continued on the 380 complex this afternoon, Nov/Dec'26 was bid up from $54.00/mt to $56.50/mt in the lead up to the window, Dec/Jan'27 was also better bid trading up from $39.00/mt to $40.50/mt. Nov'26 380 crack was bid up from $8.75/bbl to $10.00/bbl in the early afternoon, then liquidity dried up and traded down to $9.90/bbl in tiny size, Dec'26 380 crack traded up 60c to $5.00/bbl. Barge spreads were thin again this afternoon with Nov/Dec'26 and Dec/Jan'27 trading at $24.00/mt and $23.75/mt respectively, Nov'26 Barge crack was choppy initially trading up from -$8.70/bbl to -$8.20/bbl before selling back down to -$8.70/bbl in the window.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw some buying in the prompt two months, with Nov/Dec'26 well bid at $3.10/bbl and Dec/Jan'27 trading at $4.40/bbl. E/W rallied in the front, with Nov'26 lifted from -$120.00/mt up to -$116.50/mt. Deferred regrade saw pressure from Q3'27 and Q4'26 combo selling, with Q3'27 regrade trading down to $1.45/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads sold off into the window, Dec/Jan'27 from highs of $43.00/mt down to $39.00/mt, while Dec'26 futures cracks sold off to $76.10/bbl. European jet diffs rallied overall, Nov'26 lifted to $142.00/mt and Dec'26 trading up to $141.00/mt.

This afternoon in gasoline, mixed interest in terms of MOC, seeing the Nov'26 crack valued $18.50/bbl end of window. Continued sellside interest in Q1'27 EBOB cracks this afternoon from trade and bank, trading up to $19.80/bbl with selling in Q1'27 and Q2'27 arbs at $23.70/bbl and $26.25/bbl respectively. Refiner buyside of flat price in Nov'26 92 this afternoon with 92 spreads remaining better offered, seeing Nov/Dec'26 getting hit $3.80/bbl, with Dec/Jan'27 get sold down to $3.15/bbl.

Thin evening window in naphtha, with MOC bid while higher Brent initially pushed spreads up before they retraced and cracks found a bid. NWE naphtha cracks were choppy, with Nov cracks improving from -$6/bbl to -$5.40/bbl early afternoon, falling -$5.80/bbl before ending at -$5.45/bbl post-window; Q1 was -$6.25/bbl and the Nov/Dec crack roll at $0.22/bbl after trading between a $0.15-0.30/bbl range, while the Dec/Dec crack roll traded at $3.30/bbl. Spreads were firmer before turning illiquid, with Nov/Dec reaching $38/mt and easing to $37.50/mt, and Dec/Jan at $24/mt. E/W remained supported, with Nov up from $70/mt this morning to $73.50/mt post-window after reaching $74/mt, while Q1 finished at $55/mt, Cal 27 + 28 at $39.5/mt & $25.50/mt, respectively, and the Nov/Dec box at $2.50/mt. MOPJ strengthened before turning completely illiquid in the window, with Nov around $2.75/bbl versus $1.92/bbl this morning; spreads were firmer early afternoon, with Nov/Dec at $40/mt, Dec/Jan at $35.50/mt and Jan/Feb at $30/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI spreads held their morning strength with Nov/Dec'26 trading at $41.00/mt after opening at $40.00/mt. Dec/Dec'26 FEI traded at $248.00/mt up from $247.00/mt around midday. Dec/Feb'27 FEI also saw trades selling at $78.00/mt before rising to $79.00/mt.

The FEI/MOPJ was much stronger this afternoon. Q1'27 FEI/MOPJ traded at -$43.00/mt up from -$50.00/mt earlier this morning. This was as a function of continued FEI strength.

The arb was firm this afternoon with Dec'26 LST/FEI trading at -$330.00/mt throughout the afternoon dropping slightly to -$331.00/mt before recovering. The Q2'27 arb also weakened slightly to -$221.00/mt versus -$220.00/mt this morning. In the back end there was buying of the Cal28 arb at -$172.00/mt with bank selling of the Cal 28 LST flat price at 76.75c/gal alongside.

LST structure was firm this afternoon, supporting the arb. Nov/Dec'26 LST fluctuated between 0.75c/gal and 0.875c/gal throughout the afternoon. Q1/Q2'27 LST traded at 11.75c/gal throughout the afternoon.

Butane continued to be weaker in the front. Nov/Dec'26 Butane traded at 5.25c/gal throughout the afternoon dropping from 5.75c/gal initially. In the back end, there were trade house buying of the Cal 27 Butane/MOPJ at -$224.00/mt, as well as bank selling of the Cal27 Butane flat price alongside at 123.50c/gal.