Mita Chaturvedi
Research Associate, Flux
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Brent briefly climbs above $112/bbl; Saudi Aramco tells staff to evacuate Dhahran HQ
Saudi Aramco has reportedly told its staff to evacuate from its headquarters in Dhahran and work from home...
Published: October 22, 2026
Written by:
Mita Chaturvedi
The Dec'26 Brent futures contract opened above $110/bbl this morning and climbed to a high of $112.67/bbl at 16:58 SGT. Prices met resistance here and have since moved between $111/bbl and $112.50/bbl, standing at $111.93/bbl at 19:00 SGT (time of writing).
Brent Futures Flat Price
Geopolitical tensions continue to drive Brent prices higher, with the IRGC issuing a "serious warning" to the US for encouraging ships to "illegally pass through the mine-filled passage, reporting that four vessels involved in illegal oil transfers in the northern Gulf were hit and caught fire on 21 Oct. The Houthis also reportedly struck several targets in Saudi Arabia this week; Saudi Aramco has reportedly told its staff to evacuate from its headquarters in Dhahran and work from home. Additionally, the US State Department also plans on withdrawing family members from several US missions in the region. In other news, we have heard rumours that China's product export quotas may be released soon and may potentially bring 2026 allocations back towards last year's levels. Valero Energy has posted its highest-ever quarterly profit in Q3'26, with an adjusted profit of $23.90 per share against expectations of $21.07 per share, on the back of strong refining margins. Finally, at the time of writing, the Dec/Jan'27 and Dec/Jun'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $3.93/bbl and $16.17/bbl, respectively.
Crude Oil
Another volatile morning, with November leading the Dated Brent complex higher. Nov DFL pushed up from an $8.18/bbl low to $9.50/bbl despite selling, with size going through at $9.10/bbl and buyers at $9.18/bbl, and last traded at $9.00/bbl, roughly 90c over last night’s close. Nov/Dec Dated was paid up from $6.60/bbl to $7.15/bbl in size; real players bought it at $7.00/bbl and $6.90/bbl on the pullback, and it sits at $6.90/bbl, about 70c up on the day, while Nov/Jan Dated was bought at $11.65/bbl before slipping. On the Dubai side, Dec Dated/Dubai gave back from $3.10/bbl to $2.83/bbl despite buying, with Jan picked up at $1.18/bbl.
It was a busy day market. Daily DFL 16-20 Nov was bid up from $7.50/bbl to $7.70/bbl, and 23-27 Nov v Dec bought at $3.70/bbl in size. We also saw a large 02-06 Nov v Dec sale at $10.95/bbl and 02-06 v 23-27 Nov going at $7.30/bbl, while 02-06 v 09-13 Nov slipped from $2.65/bbl to $2.55/bbl through buying.
This morning in Brent/Dubai, we gapped lower, with the Nov Brent/Dubai opening around -$2.89/bbl, down from -$2.63/bbl last night. There was trade house selling of Nov Brent/Dubai in size around -$3/bbl, and we moved lower into the window, down to -$3.34/bbl. Post-window, we continued to come off, trading down to -$3.69/bbl. There was refiner buying of Nov Brent/Dubai around -$3.52/bbl, and we bounced back to -$3.15/bbl. The Dubai spreads were well bid; the Nov/Dec Dubai spread was up from $3.77/bbl to $4.29/bbl, with trade house buying of Dec/Apr Dubai at $8.80/bbl and two-way interest in Feb/Mar Dubai around $1.93/bbl. The Nov/Dec Brent/Dubai box was well offered by trade houses at around $0/bbl, before trading down to -$0.36/bbl into the end of the window.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Fuel Oil
In VLSFO, Sing 0.5 was better bid this morning, Nov/Dec traded up 50c to $30.50/mt by window open, and continued to rally to $31.50/mt in the window and to $31.75/mt post window, Dec/Jan was bid up from $31.50/mt to $32.75/mt, Nov Sing crack opened 25c higher at $24.80/bbl before getting bid up to $25.10/bbl in the window and then to $25.20/bbl post window., Dec Sing crack initially traded 20c lower to $23.80/bbl before getting bid back up to $24.20/bbl. Euro 0.5 remained thin this morning; Nov/Dec traded between $14.50/mt and $15.00/mt, Dec/Jan traded down 50c to $13.25/mt in low volume, Nov Euro crack was better offered, selling off from $0.50/bbl to $0.20/bbl, Nov 0.5 E/W traded 5 dollars higher to $159.00/mt.
In HSFO, the Singapore 380 complex saw much better liquidity this morning. Nov/Dec saw real buying, initially opening 3 dollars higher at $55.00/mt and topping out at $56.25/mt; it was then offered down to $52.50/mt in the window before rallying back up to $54.50/mt post-window. Dec/Jan 380 was bid up from $37.00/mt to $39.00/mt. Nov 380 crack opened $1.20/bbl higher at $9.20/bbl; it was then offered down to $8.45/bbl in the window before getting bid back up to $9.00/bbl. Barge spreads were relatively illiquid again this morning; Nov/Dec and Dec/Jan traded at $26.00/mt and $15.75/mt, respectively. Nov 3.5% Barge crack was range-bound, trading between -$8.40/bbl and -$8.20/bbl; Nov 380 E/W traded 5 dollars higher to $110.75/mt.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Distillates
This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were mixed; Nov/Dec was well offered between $3/bbl and $3.10/bbl, while Feb/Mar was bid at $4.75/bbl. The gasoil E/W continued to be well bid in Dec, trading up to -$95/mt, while the Q3'27 E/W was sell-side at -$52/mt. Regrade was better bid in Nov and Dec, with Nov lifted to $1.50/bbl and Dec to $2.75/bbl.
Prompt ICE gasoil spreads were range-bound, with Nov/Dec trading between $40/mt and $42.50/mt, while Dec futures cracks firmed from $77.00/bbl to $77.50/bbl.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Gasoline
This morning in Gasoline, 92 MOC was better offered with Eastern spreads and cracks also better offered, taking the prompt gasoline E/W trade down from -$1.80/bbl to -$2.50/bbl, with fund selling in Dec E/W at -$1.20/bbl. Trade houses were sell-side of Nov/Jan 92 this morning, despite some real buying, taking Nov/Dec trade down from $3.80/bbl to $3.50/bbl during the window.
EBOB was also weaker this morning, but interest here has flipped slightly post-window, amid selling in the Nov TA arb and selling in the Q1'27 EBOB crack, pushing Nov/Jan'27 EBOB higher. We saw the Nov/Dec EBOB trading up to $42/mt.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Naphtha
This morning in naphtha was mixed, with MOC bid and E/W strengthening on relative European weakness. MOPJ cracks were broadly steady to firmer versus last night, with Nov opening at $1.70/bbl before ending closer to $1.92/bbl, while Q1 traded at -$0.75/bbl; spreads strengthened, with Nov/Dec up from $36/mt to $38.50/mt and Dec/Jan from $29.50/mt to $32.50/mt. E/W was the better bid, with Nov rising from $66.50/mt last night to $70/mt after opening at $68/mt, while Dec traded up to $68/mt as the Nov/Dec box eased from $3/mt to $2/mt; boxes were stronger further out, with Dec/Jan at $11/mt and Jan/Feb at $5.5/mt.
NWE naphtha cracks weakened on higher Brent before recovering slightly, with Nov moving from -$5.70/bbl last night to -$6.25/bbl, then ending at -$6/bbl; Q1 was broadly steady at -$6.40/bbl, while the Nov/Dec crack roll firmed from $0.08/bbl to $0.15/bbl and Q1/Q2 fell to $1.5/bbl. Spreads were stronger, with Nov/Dec at $36/mt, Jan/Feb at $23/mt, and Dec/Jan/Feb trading at -$1.50/mt.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
NGLs
This morning in FEI, spreads were very strong, rebounding from a few days of weakness. Vitol was bid in the phys window, which drove up FEI spreads. Nov/Dec FEI traded around $37/mt pre-window before shooting up to $40/mt after trading at $39/mt. Q1/Q2 FEI traded at $113/mt. Dec/Dec FEI traded at $235/mt before rising to $240/mt, where a bank was selling. Printing $245/mt by close.
FEI/MOPJs were firm at -$50/mt, seeing consistent buying at those levels from Trades. This was supported by FEI buying at the end of the window.
The arb also sold off this morning. The Nov Arb started this morning at -$350/mt before falling to -$362/mt, with the close trading at -$356/mt during the window. Dec LST/FEI traded at -$318/mt before falling to -$322/mt. The Cal27 LST/FEI saw some buying at -$218/mt.
FEI/CP was implied stronger, with Nov FEI/CP printing $215/mt. Dec FEI/CP traded up from $180/mt to $182/mt. On screen, Nov FEI was trading at $952/mt to close, also getting lifted to a high of $955/mt.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Morning Macro
- Equity markets, bond yields, the dollar and gold are all moving lower today. Not large moves, but an unusual correlation.
- Unprecedented. The S&P 500 is ~1% off its highs. Goldman's High Beta Momentum basket is -41%. We’ve never seen anything like this.
THE CASE FOR LONG U.S. BONDS AT THESE LEVELS -Bonds aren't just an income play.
- 30-year bonds carry a lot of duration. If you think yields are near their cycle highs, that duration is where the capital gains are.
- If the 30-year yield falls from 5.43% to 4.43% over the next year, a bond bought at par gains roughly 16% in price. Add the coupon, and the total return is over 21%.
- The same duration works in reverse if yields keep rising, so this is a conviction trade, not a safe haven.
- Equities vs Credit - "Stocks rose with futures as strong results from technology companies eased concerns over the AI trade after last week’s bruising selloff." Meanwhile Big Tech CDS closed at new highs yesterday.
- Micron and Nvidia are expected to account for 36% of the S&P 500’s earnings growth in Q3 2026 earnings season. This comes as MU and NVDA are expected to contribute +5.2 and +4.6 percentage points to the index’s +27% YoY earnings growth, respectively. Never in history have we witnessed market concentration like this.
- The spread on France's 10-year yield over Germany went above 150 bps yesterday and we're already above 170 bps for the 30-year spread. Things are getting bad very fast. Once we reach 250 bps the ECB will step in, just like it's done every time in the past.
- Hedge funds' "absorption of US government debt has outpaced other US creditors, leaving the funds with roughly 8.5% - or about $2.7 trillion - of outstanding Treasuries as of late last year. It’s a noteworthy sum given hedge funds’ ability to move rapidly, leverage their trades and their flexibility in selling a Treasury security."
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