Brent Firms Despite IEA Debating Further SPR Releases

The Nov’26 Brent futures contract is currently printing at $104.36/bbl. In the news, Fatih Birol, Head of the IEA, said member states may discuss further strategic oil reserve releases in the future, but that additional releases aren't currently "the number one agenda for the IEA." Speaking at the EU Energy Meeting, Birol said that "[The IEA are] following the markets very closely, especially the product markets, diesel and others. If there is a need, of course, we will discuss with our member governments to take the necessary steps." Elsewhere, crude oil exports from Middle Eastern producers rebounded in September to 16.33mb/d, the highest since the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February, as Saudi Arabia and the UAE ramped up exports. The rebound followed a recovery in Strait of Hormuz flows, set to hit about 9.72mb/d this month, as Saudi Arabia diverted exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu after attacks damaged its East-West pipeline. Despite the rebound, regional exports remain about 3.2mb/d below February's 19.51mb/d level, as per Kpler. The tally includes Hormuz transits (including Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers), shipments from the UAE's Fujairah and Oman terminals outside the strait, and Red Sea exports. In other news, Spain's government will approve measures to cap increases in regulated gas prices for households as colder weather approaches, Energy Minister Sara Aagesen said, limiting the rise to 15% for the autumn-winter season. Without government action, Aagesen said, regulated prices would have jumped more than 45% starting next month. The package, set for cabinet approval, revives tools used during the 2022 energy crisis. About 3.1 million gas customers in Spain (39%) were on regulated rates as of Q1 2026, according to official data. Finally, as of the time of writing, the Dec/Jan’27 and Dec/Jun’27 Brent futures spreads are at $3.08/bbl and $10.54/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated we saw Oct DFL trade down to $9.35/bbl coming off with spreads post-window. Pre-window we saw selling of Cal Oct vs 26-30 Oct at $5.40/bbl and selling of 5-9 Oct 1-week whilst 5-9 Oct vs Cal Oct was bid. The physical window was quiet today. The paper window initially looked strong with 12-16 Oct 1-week buying and trades lifting 5-9 Oct CFD up to $15.20/bbl before some selling came in, with a trade selling 5-9 Oct CFD back down to $15.05/bbl and a major selling 19-23 Oct CFD.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai we traded slightly higher. There was some products selling of Oct/Nov'26 box, but this was used by participants to offer Oct/Nov'26 Dubai spread on screen. The Oct/Nov'26 box traded up from -$3.10/bbl -$2.80/bbl, the Oct/Nov'26 Dubai spread down from $6.50/bbl to $5.60/bbl. The Brent/Dubai traded higher into close, the Oct'26 Brent/Dubai up from -$3.20/bbl to -$2.80/bbl. Around $0.00/bbl there were sellers in the Nov'26 Brent/Dubai. There was some producer selling of Q2'27 Brent/Dubai, targeting around $0.54/bbl.

In VLSFO, Sing 0.5% spreads saw moderate volume this afternoon although prices remained relatively stable. Oct/Nov'26 traded a down from $36.00/mt to $35.25/mt in the early afternoon before bouncing back up and trading between $35.50/mt and $35.75 during and after the window, Nov/Dec'26 consistently traded at $34.00/mt, it briefly touched $33.50/mt before bouncing back up and similarly traded at $34.50/mt once before reverting back to $34.00/mt and trading here in the window. Oct'26 Sing crack was range-bound, it encountered decent volume on screen but its price remained between $23.45/bbl and $23.70/bbl, Nov'26 Sing crack consistently traded between $20.90/bbl and $21.10/bbl before slipping down to $20.75/bbl post window. Euro spreads remained less liquid than Sing 0.5, Oct/Nov'26 briefly traded down to $9.25/mt before finding support and getting bid back up to $10.00/mt where it traded for the majority of the afternoon, Nov/Dec'26 traded between $11.00/mt and $11.50/mt. Oct'26 Euro crack came off this afternoon, it traded at -$0.80/bbl in the early afternoon, but quickly fell to -$1.15/bbl, it briefly rallied back up to -$0/$90.00/bbl trading back down to -$1.15/bbl in the window.

In HSFO, 380 spreads came off slightly into the afternoon, Oct/Nov'26 traded down from $41.25/mt to $40.25/mt and then traded between here and $40.50/mt for the afternoon, Nov/Dec'26 shed 75c to $27.75/mt. Oct'26 380 crack was range-bound trading between $2.80/bbl and $3.00/bbl, Nov'26 crack traded between -$0.50/bbl and -$0.40/bbl in low volume. Oct/Nov'26 Barges traded lower in the early afternoon from $16.25/mt to $15.00/mt before rallying back up to $16.00/mt during the window, Nov/Dec'26 traded between $15.50/mt and $16.00/mt. Oct'26 Barge crack saw better liquidity this afternoon and price remained rigid trading between -$10.25/bbl and -$10.10/bbl, Nov'26 crack traded between -$9.70/bbl and -$9.60/bbl, 380 E/W traded up from $80.25/mt to $84.00/mt this afternoon.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw buying and selling on higher ICE gasoil, with Oct/Nov'26 trading from $4.00/bbl up to $4.20/bbl. Front E/W was well supported, trading from -$119.00/mt up to highs of -$115.00/mt before weakening again to -$118.00/mt. Kero spreads were well bid in Oct/Dec'26, trading up to $6.50/bbl, supporting Oct'26 regrade to -$2.38/bbl lifted.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads firmed into the afternoon, with Nov/Dec'26 trading from $50.50/mt up to $55.50/mt, while Nov'26 cracks firmed from $75.00/bbl to $77.50/bbl. European jet diffs rallied in the front, with Oct'26 trading from $85.00/mt up to $97.00/mt, and Q1'27 firming slightly to $121.00/mt.

This afternoon, gasoline was stronger as RBBRs traded up to $27.50/bbl in Dec'26 end window. Front arbs remained stable around -4.50c/gal, with Oct'26 EBOB cracks trading up from $37.25/bbl to $37.70/bbl. Front spreads also went better bid from tradehouses, with Oct/Nov'26 firming from $85.25/mt to highs of $88.50/mt. E/W was better offered; Oct'26 came off from -$3.00/bbl to -$3.90/bbl as 92 cracks remained range-bound in the front around $32.70/bbl.

This afternoon, naphtha was firmer overall, with MOC better offered but cracks recovering and spreads finding support as Brent spreads moved higher, though liquidity remained thin. NWE naphtha rebounded from the morning, with Oct'26 cracks improving from -$7.30/bbl to -$6.60/bbl post-window; the Oct/Nov'26 roll eased to -$0.70/bbl, while Q4'26 was -$6.15/bbl and Cal 27 at -$8.10/bbl. Spreads were better bid, with Oct/Nov'26 at $20.50/mt, Nov/Dec'26 at $19.25/mt and Dec/Jan'27 at $12.25/mt. E/W strengthened, with Oct'26 up from $59.50/mt to $62.00/mt, while the Oct/Dec'26 box firmed to $2.00/mt and Q1'27 was $46.00/mt. MOPJ remained illiquid on cracks, with only Nov'26 trading at $1.00/bbl, but spreads edged higher, with Oct/Nov'26 and Nov/Dec'26 both at $21.50/mt and Dec/Jan'27 at $21.75/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, Nov'26 CP flat price rallied $614.00/mt to $620.00/mt by close. This drove front-month spread strength, with Oct/Nov'26 C3 CP trading at $23.00/mt mid-window to $24.00/mt post-window. FEI traded up slightly, ending the window at $843.00/mt from an $836.00/mt opening print. FEI front-month spreads rallied slightly off this, with Oct/Nov'26 trading at a peak of $34.50/mt up from $33.00/mt at the open. Nov/Dec'26 FEI also rallied slightly, trading at $29.00/mt before moving up to $29.50/mt. Overall, there was a small downward move in the Arb from FEI’s slight strength and LST’s sideways trading in Oct'26. As a result, Oct'26 LST/FEI ended the window trading and printing -$379.00/mt down from -$375.00/mt earlier today. The US window remained illiquid with LST flat price relatively thin. However, throughout the afternoon, LST did rally slightly from 88.20c/gal to trading at 89.00c/gal at the peak. This drove prompt month LST spreads up further, with Oct/Nov'26 LST up 0.125c/gal to 1.375c/gal versus 1.25c/gal pre-window. In the deferred, there was buying of Sep/Oct'27 at -0.375c/gal. Butane continues to be stronger, and we saw Oct'26 C4 ENT gain almost 3.00c/gal, opening at 131.00c/gal and trading at a peak of 134.125c/gal. This prompt-month move also led to strength in front spreads, with Oct/Nov'26 trading up to 2.75c/gal having opened at 2.375c/gal. This was seen most prominently in Jan/Feb'27, which rose from 3.625c/gal to 4.25c/gal.