Brent weakens on “positive discussions” between the US and Iran

In the news, a US official has reportedly told Al Jazeera that they continue to have a positive discussion with Iran through intermediaries while maintaining that there will be no agreement without addressing the nuclear issue. More QatarEnergy-linked LNG vessels, laden and ballast, were seen transiting the Strait of Hormuz in the past week, marking an increase from 0 vessels being delivered outside the Persian Gulf in August. Qatar has only delivered 18 cargoes of LNG outside of the Gulf from March to the end of August this year (versus 509 cargoes during this time last year). In the UK, the price of diesel at the pump has hit record highs of 199.18 pence per litre, making the cost of filling up an average family car now almost £110, £31 more than when the US-Iran war began. Meanwhile, in Italy, Azerbaijan's SOCAR has said it will match Eni's price cap on fuels sold in Italy, capping diesel prices at the pump to  €2.19 per litre and petrol at €1.99 per ​litre. SOCAR sells fuel in Italy through its local unit Italiana Petroli (IP) and SOCAR and Eni control more than 40% of Italy's pump station network. Finally, at the time of writing, the Nov/Dec'26 and Nov/May'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $7.47/bbl and $17.88/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated Brent, we saw strong buying pre-window, with Oct'26 DFL trading up to highs of $11.00/bbl as a trade and major bid Midland cargoes in the physical window. Nov'26 DFL was also supported with strong Nov'26 into Dec'26 roll buying this afternoon, pushing the DFL roll up to highs of $1.25/bbl. In the paper window, we saw trades, majors and refiners buying CFDs, with 5-9 Oct CFD lifted up to $16.00/bbl and 12-16 Oct CFD trading up $1.20/bbl. Post-window, we also saw buying of 2-6 Nov CFD and 9-13 Nov CFD; however, Oct'26 DFL came off a bit, trading back down to $10.70/bbl.

This afternoon was very quiet in Brent/Dubai. The Oct Brent/Dubai initially traded in a tight range between -$3.40/bbl and -$3.10/bbl, coming off later in the day with some refiner selling of Nov and Dec Brent/Dubai. There was trade buying of the Oct/Nov Dubai spread around $6.85/bbl. The Brent/Dubai boxes had little interest OTC; the Nov/Dec box was better bid around -$0.70/bbl, but not trading.

In VLSFO, Sing 0.5% traded slightly lower but was relatively resilient this afternoon; Spreads traded at similar levels to this morning, while prompt crack remained range-bound. Oct/Nov'26 Sing saw good volume traded; it traded slightly lower in the early afternoon from $36.75/mt to $36.25/mt, then traded between here and $36.50/mt for the remainder of the afternoon. Nov/Dec'26 similarly traded down 50c in the early afternoon to $35.35/mt, where it traded in the window. Oct'26 Sing crack traded at $23.50/mt in the early afternoon before getting offered down on screen to $23.20/mt; it then traded around this level for the duration of the afternoon. Nov'26 Sing crack traded between $21.20/bbl and $21.30/bbl. Euro 0.5 traded lower this afternoon, but liquidity is starting to pick up in Euro 0.5 after a very illiquid week last week. Oct/Nov'26 traded down from $12.00/mt to $10.75/mt and Nov/Dec'26 slipped from $13.50/mt to $13.00/mt, while Oct'26 Euro crack sold off on screen from $0.30/bbl to -$0.60/bbl.

In HSFO, Oct/Nov'26 380 came off a little this afternoon, peaking at $42.50/mt in the early afternoon and then selling down OTCV to $41.75/mt pre-window and then to $41.00/mt post-window; Nov/Dec'26 traded down from $31.00/mt to $30.00/mt in the early afternoon and traded around this level during and after the window. Oct'26 380 crack saw less volume than usual; nearly all volume traded was on screen, and it came off from $3.05/bbl to $2.50/bbl pre-window and traded at $2.25/bbl in the window. Oct'26 Barge crack also came off on screen, getting offered down from -$9.35/bbl to -$10.00/bbl over the course of the afternoon; it traded around -$9.90/bbl in the window. Barge spreads continued to be thin, with Oct/Nov'26 trading in very low volume and trading between $20.50/mt and $21.00/mt.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw decent buying in the front, with Oct/Nov'26 trading between $4.50/bbl and $4.60/bbl as ICE gasoil came off. Front E/W was well supported, trading from -$131.00/mt up to -$128.00/mt. Oct/Nov'26 kero saw some buying from $2.85/bbl up to $2.95/bbl, while Q1'27 regrade was sell-side down to $2.25/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads weakened throughout, with Nov/Dec'26 trading from $63.00/mt down to $58.25/mt, while the Nov'26 crack sold off to $80.00/bbl. European jet diffs were steady, with Oct'26 trading up slightly from $85.00/mt to $87.00/mt, and Dec'26 trading up to $108.00/mt.

This afternoon, gasoline arbs were bid in the front, with Oct'26 trading up from -5.30c/gal to highs of -3c/gal. This pressured EBOB, with cracks getting sold down from $38.50/bbl to $36.45/bbl in Oct, and Q1 was valued at $21.80/bbl. Spreads sold off as well, with Oct/Nov trading down from $96.25/mt to $88.25/mt. The East was more resilient, as E/W firmed from -$6.60/bbl to around -$5/bbl and 92 cracks were valued at $31.60/bbl post-window.

Continued weakness in Naphtha this afternoon, with MOC offered and front cracks/ spreads under pressure. NWE naphtha weakened further from the morning, with Oct'26 cracks falling from -$6.75/bbl to -$7.40/bbl post-window, while Dec'26 was at -$6.10/bbl and Cal 27 at -$7.95/bbl; crack rolls moved lower as Brent spreads rallied, with Oct/Nov'26 at -$1.10/bbl and Q1/Q2'27’ at $1.50/bbl, while spreads stayed offered despite higher the crude, with Oct/Nov'26 down from $24.75/mt this morning to $22.50/mt and Nov/Jan'27 was $39.75/mt. E/W was volatile but broadly recovered, with Oct'26 falling from $58.00/mt this morning to $54.50/mt pre-window before rebidding to $58.75/mt post-window, while Q1'27 was offered down to $45.25/mt and the Oct/Nov'26 box moved up to flat. MOPJ remained weak, as Cal 27’ cracks traded at $-$4.00/bbl, Oct'26 around -$0.85/bbl on a flat-price basis, and the Oct/Nov'26 crack roll at -$1.10/bbl, while spreads recovered slightly pre-window before ultimately coming off, with Oct/Nov'26 at $22.50/mt and Dec/Jan'27 at $24.50/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI flat price was trading lower as a function of crude, but spreads were firm at the morning’s closing levels. Oct/Nov'26 FEI was trading at $34.00/mt, and Nov/Dec'26 at $30.00/mt. There was also interest on both sides in the Oct/Nov'26/Dec'26 FEI fly that traded at $3.50/mt and $4.00/mt across the afternoon. Upon the US open, LST/FEI finally found some liquidity, and in the front, Oct'26 traded up to -$389.00/mt and Nov'26 was getting lifted at -$360.00/mt. Also saw interest in Q1'27 at -$290.00/mt, compared to Friday’s closing level of -$287.00/mt. FEI/MOPJs traded in both Dec'26 and Jan'27 at -$45.00/mt and -$47.00/mt, respectively, closing the afternoon $1 stronger. Another relatively quiet afternoon across US curves. LST spreads were stronger on the day, seeing Oct/Nov'26 trade up to 1.125c/gal, and Q2/Q4 27 trade at 0.625c/gal, compared to last week’s close of 0.50c/gal. In US C4 , flat price was better offered in the front on crude, with spreads relatively firm to opening levels. C4/C3 initially stronger in Oct'26 trading up to 43.75c/gal before coming off on crude to be printing 43.00c/gal at close. C4 ENT/MOPJ buyer returned in Cal 27 at -$240.00/mt, $4 stronger than Friday’s closing level.