Brent Firms as Perm Oil Refinery Halts Production

In the news, the Perm oil refinery has halted operations after a Ukrainian drone attack sparked a fire and damaged pipelines, storage, and technological units. The attack comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on 22 Sep that he had discussed with Trump efforts to end the war with Russia, including a potential bilateral ceasefire on energy-related targets. Elsewhere, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has contacted executives at several major American refiners in recent days to gauge support for a voluntary restriction on diesel exports, as the Trump administration searches for an alternative to a short-term ban, according to Reuters. The effort to enlist companies voluntarily underscores the White House's limited options amid surging fuel prices, which are pushing inflation higher and beginning to ripple through the broader economy as November's midterms approach. In Germany, the government has approved a gasoline tax discount that will cost federal and state governments €2.5 billion. The lower house of parliament passed the law and the upper house raised no objections, clearing the way for implementation. The government will cut taxes on gasoline and diesel by €0.17/L from October through the end of December, aiming to help citizens cope with fuel prices sent soaring by the Iran war. In other news, gasoline shipped to Syria has begun moving by road to Iraq, as per a senior Syrian oil official, opening a two-way corridor Baghdad has used since Hormuz disruptions began. The first Iraq-bound cargo — 32.8kt aboard the tanker Avanti — was unloaded at Syria's Baniyas refinery before being trucked out this week, with 77 trucks having left for the Iraqi border and more shipments expected; the gasoline was neither Syrian-produced nor drawn from domestic stocks. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May’27) Brent futures spreads are at $6.76/bbl and $16.97/bbl, respectively.

Strong afternoon in Dated, Oct DFL was paid up to $10.50/bbl, whislt CFDs were well bid, seeing tradehouse buying of 19-23 Oct CFD up to $9.60/bbl. 5-9 Oct 3-week saw strong buying up to $10.20/bbl post window by tradehouse, and 2-6 Nov 3-week was bid by US. We saw hedge buying of 26-6 Nov vs 9-20 Nov at $3.50/bbl. The physical remained unchanged, whislt post-window Oct DFL sold back off on the bearish headline to $9.90/bbl, recovering again on the back of strong roll buying.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai was very illiquid. We traded in a large range between -$3.20/bbl to -$2.70/bbl. The only flow was some late buyside interest by bank to buy Q2 Brent/Dubai, as well as some Nov/Dec and Dec/Jan boxes. The Dubai spreads traded largely with no real interest, following Brent spreads. The Oct/Nov Dubai spread traded between $6.40/bbl to $6.70/bbl. The Oct/Nov Brent/Dubai box traded between -$3.40/bbl to -$3.00/bbl.

It was a very quiet afternoon in Fuel oil due to a Chinese Holiday and Broker trip. Sing 0.5% spreads traded a little higher in low volume, Oct/Nov'26 was bid up from $36.75/mt to $37.50/mt and Nov/Dec'26 traded between $35.75/mt and $36.00/mt. Oct'26 Sing crack was range-bound trading between $23.00/bbl,$60.00/bbl and $23.80/bbl. Euro 0.5% complex was even thinner, Oct/Nov'26 traded at $12.00/mt a dollar lower than this morning's levels, while Oct'26 crack was range-bound trading between $0.40/bbl and $0.55/bbl.

In HSFO 380 spreads traded higher OTC despite limited liquidity; Oct/Nov'26 traded up from $45.00/mt to $47.00/mt and Nov/Dec'26 from $31.75/mt to $32.50/mt. Oct'26 380 crack saw buyside interest on screen trading up from $3.00/bbl to $3.50/bbl. Oct/Nov'26 Barges traded slightly lower on very little volume, from $21.75/mt to $21.00/mt, while Oct'26 Barge crack was bid up from -$9.15/bbl to -$8.80/bbl.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were mixed, with Oct/Nov'26 trading from $4.50/bbl down to $4.10/bbl, then back to $4.30/bbl. Prompt E/W sold off, from -$129.00/mt down to -$133.00/mt. Regrade was quiet overall, with Nov'26 trading at -$1.50/bbl, while Oct/Nov'26 kero traded at $2.55/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads rallied initially before selling off, with Nov/Dec'26 trading up to $64.00/mt, then back to $58.75/mt last, while Nov'26 cracks traded up to $83.00/bbl before moving back to $81.30/bbl. European jet diffs remained in a range, with Oct'26 trading at $85.00/mt and Q1'27 trading at $122.00/mt.

Choppy afternoon in gasoline. EBOB MOC better bid, with crack rallying into the end window, trading at highs of $40.60/bbl. We find buying in Oct arb continuing this afternoon in the -7c/gal handles, with trade and refiners on the buyside. Oct/Dec EBOB trails lower, but real interest remains buy-side, with trade houses buying. Q1/Q2/Q3'27 EBOB crack fly better offered at -$8.40/bbl. E/W stronger seeing Oct 92 crack stable in comparison to EBOB, with E/W moving as a function of RBBRs in the prompt, with trade buying in Q1 E/W at -$5.40/bbl this morning.

This afternoon in naphtha was weaker overall, with front cracks under pressure as Brent rallied and spreads found a bid. NWE naphtha cracks came off from the morning, with Oct'26 down -$6.15/bbl post-window after recovering slightly from -$6.50/bbl lows, while Nov'26 recovered from -$5.80/bbl to -$5.50/bbl, Q1'27 held around -$6.20/bbl and deferred rolls came off, with Q1/2 at $1.50/bbl; spreads were better bid on higher crude but unsustained, with Oct/Nov'26 at $26.00/mt, Nov/Dec'26 at $25.50/mt and Dec/Jan'27 around $15.50/mt post-window. E/W was softer, with Oct'26 down from the morning’s $62.50/mt area to $60.00/mt post-window, the Oct/Dec'26 box flat on legs, and Q1'27 around $46.50/mt. MOPJ remained illiquid, but Nov'26 cracks traded at $1.15/bbl, while spreads recovered from earlier lows but stayed softer versus the morning, with Oct/Nov'26 around $25.00/mt and the Dec/Jan'27/Feb'27 fly around $0.25/mt.

An especially quiet afternoon in NGLs today with very little liquidity across the curves. Oct/Nov'26 FEI was trading at $30.00/mt, down $1 from the morning’s closing level, and Nov/Dec'26 traded at $29.50/mt. In the deferred, Dec'26 26/Mar'27 27 and Jan/Mar'27 27 had buying at $88.00/mt and $63.00/mt, respectively. Saw some LST/FEI action in prompt and deferred. Nov'26 traded -$353.00/mt, and Cal 27 at -$227.00/mt, the same level as yesterday’s close. LST flat price and spreads had little interest today. Dec/Feb'27 LST had US trade buying at 2.375c/gal, and Oct/Nov'26 traded at 1.00c/gal where it firmed into the close. In butane, there was some spread selling down the curve, with Oct/Nov'26 trading at 1.50c/gal, and Dec/Jan'27 getting sold at 3.125c/gal. Nov/Jan'27 trading at 4.875c/gal into close.