Brent Strengthens While Secretary Wright Says a Diesel Ban “Definitely Doesn’t Work”

In the news, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said that a US ban on diesel exports wouldn't work and could push up gasoline and jet fuel prices, putting him at odds with US President Donald Trump, who has backed the idea. "The blunt tool of banning diesel exports definitely doesn't work," Wright said at a New York event, adding that "if you can't export the diesel that comes out of our refineries, you run out of places to store it, and you have to reduce US refining, which would put upward pressure on gasoline prices and jet fuel prices." Average US diesel prices stood at $6.52/gal on 23 September, up 76% from a year ago, per AAA. Elsewhere, Austria's government announced that it will strengthen its “petrol price brake”, aimed at cushioning consumers from higher oil prices stemming from the Middle East conflict, by reinstating a cap on retailers' margins that had been scrapped in June. While typically extended by just 1 month, the government has opted to extend for a 2-month time period. In other news, Bulgaria has approved lifting a ban on fuel exports to other EU countries, a restriction that had been in place since last year to protect domestic supplies after US sanctions targeted Russia's Lukoil, operator of the country's biggest oil refinery. The government said the ban, mainly covering diesel and aviation fuel, had hurt Lukoil's refinery operations and created significant administrative and organisational difficulties for fuel businesses, causing financial losses for operators who failed to meet contractual obligations to international partners. It also said the ban ran counter to the EU single market's free movement of goods principle. Lukoil runs Bulgaria's 190kb/d Burgas refinery and operates more than 200 petrol stations across the country. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May’27) Brent futures spreads are at $4.62/bbl and $16.08/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated we saw strong buying into the window with Oct DFL reaching highs of $7.55/bbl with 1-15 Oct vs 16-30 Oct lifted up to $3.95/bbl pre-window. In the window we saw buying of CFDs with 28-2 Oct CFD trading up to $13.30/bbl, 5-9 Oct CFD up from $9.50/bbl to $10.00/bbl and 12-16 Oct CFD up to $7.65/bbl with trades and majors buying aggressively. We also saw 28-2 Oct 1-week trade up to $3.00/bbl. In the physical window we saw 1 Midland cargo offered which was lifted by a trade.

This afternoon continued to be very quiet in Brent/Dubai. Oct Brent/Dubai traded in a tight range between -$0.04/bbl to $0.05/bbl. There was some fund buying of Nov Brent/Dubai, bank selling, which also traded rangebound between $1.65/bbl to $1.75/bbl. The Dubai spreads strengthened alongside Brent spreads, Oct/Nov trading up from $4.40/bbl to $4.75/bbl. However there were buyers of boxes, trade bidding Nov/Dec box at -$0.12/bbl. All the boxes moved higher, except Dec/Mar boxes where there was trade buying of Dec/Mar Dubai spreads. Quarterlies were very quiet, some more bank bidding Cal'27 and Cal'28.

In VLSFO, Sing 0.5% spreads were thin again this afternoon and traded at similar levels to this morning while cracks were bid. Oct/Nov'26 Sing traded up to $44.50/mt in the early afternoon but came off quickly and traded at $44.00/mt into the window. Oct'26 Sing crack was choppy, in the early afternoon it was aggressively bid up on screen to $24.40/bbl, before getting offered down to $23.65/bbl and then rallying back up to $24.25/bbl. Oct'26 Euro crack continued to rally into the afternoon getting bid up from $1.00/bbl to $1.80/bbl in low volume, it then consistently sold down with virtually no support for the remainder of the afternoon with most of the volume trading on screen, it last traded at $0.45/bbl. Euro spreads were thin, Oct/Nov'26 traded was choppy but ultimately came off from $14.00/mt to $12.25/mt, Nov/Dec'26 shed a dollar to $13.00/mt.

In HSFO, the 380 complex strengthened into the afternoon, spreads were better bid with Oct/Nov'26 getting bid up from $37.00/mt to $38.50/mt while Oct'26 380 crack traded slightly lower from $0.00/bbl to -$0.30/bbl. Oct'26 Barge crack was bid up from -$11.10/bbl to -$9.60/bbl, it sold back down to -$10.00/bbl post window. Barge spreads were also bid with Oct/Nov'26 trading up 2 dollars to $18.00/mt and Nov/Dec'26 trading up from $17.25/mt to $18.00/mt.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads weakened on lower ICE gasoil, with Oct/Nov trading from $6/bbl down to $5.50/bbl last. E/W was well bid initially, trading from -$140/mt up to -$127.50/mt, before moving back to -$136/mt last. Regrade buying stepped up in Nov, trading from -$1.75/bbl to -$1.30/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads sold off throughout, with Nov/Dec trading from $80/mt down to $69.75/mt, while Nov cracks weakened $3 to $87/bbl. European jet diffs weakened initially before firming, Oct from $94/mt down to $90/mt, then back to $94/mt last.

Choppy afternoon in gasoline. MOC better bid. EBOB crack sells of from highs of $43/bbl early afternoon to $41.30/bbl end of window with very choppy RBBRs – seeing RBBRs sell off aggressively at US open but bouncing about throughout the afternoon, with Oct arb gapping from -3c/gal to -4c/gal within minutes. EBOB spreads weaker, with Oct/Nov weakening to $106/mt end of window. Still seeing selling in Q2 arbs this afternoon, trade sell-side at at 27c/gal for decent size.

This afternoon in naphtha was softer vs the morning, with MOC balanced, front cracks coming off and spreads pricing up as crude moved higher. NWE Oct crack moved from -$3.80/bbl post-window to -$4.40/bbl, while Q1'27 was around -$5.55/bbl and Cal'27 and 28 at -$7.40/bbl / -$9.3 respectively; spreads were higher pre-window but settled broadly steady, with Oct/Nov and Nov/Dec at $28/mt, Dec/Jan around $18.25/mt and Jan/Feb at $21.50/mt. E/W was relatively illiquid in the front, with Oct at $59.50/mt and Nov at $59/mt, while Q1 was at $44.50/mt and Cal'28 fell to $22/mt. MOPJ was thin across cracks and spreads after the morning, but the Nov crack traded at $2.30/bbl in window, while spreads were implied higher vs the morning.

This afternoon in NGLs, initially a quiet affair with FEI spreads firming at the morning’s levels. Oct/Nov FEI trading at $31/mt and $31.50/mt, and Nov/Dec closed out the afternoon at $27.50/mt having reached a high of $28/mt. There was also deferred spread interest with Oct/Nov'27 trading at -$4/mt, and Apr/May'27 was sold at $27.50/mt. Oct LST/FEI sold down to -$373/mt before strengthening $1 by close, and in the deferred there was a seller of Q2'27 at -$224/mt, and Cal'27 was trading at -$221/mt, the same level of yesterday’s close. Relatively quiet afternoon in LST today, although deferred spreads had good interest. Q1/2'27 opened trading at 6.125c/gal before rallying to 6.625c/gal by close, and Q2/3'27 was getting sold at 1.625c/gal. In butane, deferred spreads stepped up across the afternoon. Q4/1 traded up to 8.25c/gal from 7.875c/gal, and Q1/2'27 traded at 18c/gal having opened at 17.75c/gal. C4/C3 buying out of Nov at 37c/gal that eventually weakened to 36.876c/gal. Cal 27 C4/ENT MOPJ and C4 ENT/ Nap buying returned at -$240/mt and -$209/mt, respectively.