Brent meets resistance above $106/bbl on continued supply concerns

Concerns remain high about a potential ban on US diesel exports after a POLITICO report said the White House was preparing a 90-day export ban - a claim that the White House later denied. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright previously said a diesel export ban would not work, although POTUS Donald Trump said he would support it. In the East, China will reportedly raise retail gasoline and diesel prices but will cap this increase for a second time this month and for the fourth time since the US-Iran war began on 28 Feb. Retail gasoline prices are expected to rise by 395 yuan/mt ($58.86) and diesel by 385 yuan/mt ($57.37) effective 25 Sep. Under standard pricing mechanisms, the increases would have been 830 yuan ​and 800 ​yuan, ⁠respectively, as per China's National Development ​and Reform Commission. China's commercial gasoline and diesel inventories have dropped to their lowest level in over a decade, according to GL Consulting, raising the prospect of tighter export controls in October. Serbia's energy minister Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic said the nation will release around 5,000 mt of diesel from state reserves to ease shortages. The US is reportedly considering leaving the IEA if there is no alignment on climate issues, according to US Energy Secretary Chris Wright at an event in New York hosted by the Wall Street Journal. As per Wright, "we're either going to reform the IEA, or we will leave the IEA. My strong preference is that we reform it". Finally, at the time of writing, the Nov/Dec'26 and Nov/May'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $5.21/bbl and $17.27/bbl, respectively.

Strong morning in Dated Brent, with Oct'26 DFL rallying to highs of $9.20/bbl, with Oct'26 roll buying continuing from last night. We saw strong buying of $12.00/bbl-16 Oct'26 1w lifted up to $2.85/bbl, as well as buy-side interest out of $5.00/bbl-9 Oct'26, with 5-9 Oct/Cal Oct'26 bid at $3.45/bbl and buy-side interest in 5-9 Oct'26 1w. We saw strong Nov/Dec'26 buying, with the DFL roll trading up to $0.81/bbl and Nov'26 DFL trading up to $4.30/bbl. Further down the curve saw some Q127 DFL selling.

This morning in Brent/Dubai, we opened lower, down $1.00/bbl at -$1.00/bbl in the Oct'26 Brent/Dubai. We saw strong Sing trade buying of the Oct/Dec'26 Dubai spread, and continued to sell off in the Oct'26 Brent/Dubai. We traded down to -$2.10/bbl. The Dubai spreads all rallied aggressively; the Oct/Nov'26 spread up from $5.00/bbl to $5.80/bbl. The Brent/Dubai boxes were all much lower as well; the Oct/Nov'26 box down from -$2.00/bbl to -$2.45/bbl. OTC was very quiet relative to the magnitude of the move lower in Brent/Dubai. There was Chinese buying of Full Sep'26 Dubai vs Dec'26 ICE Brent, which traded between $14.50/bbl and $15.00/bbl.

VLSFO: Sing 0.5% was slightly weaker this morning; Oct/Nov'26 opened lower at $43.50/mt and then continued to sell down to $42.75/mt; Nov/Dec'26 traded at $35.50/mt. Oct'26 Sing crack sold off on screen from $24.15/bbl to $23.20/bbl, while Nov'26 traded between $20.25/bbl and $20.35/bbl during the window. Euro spreads were quite thin this morning but traded higher; Oct/Nov'26 traded up from $11.75/mt to $13.00/mt, and Oct'26 Euro crack was offered down on screen from $0.45/bbl to $0.15/bbl.

HSFO: 380 complex was stronger this morning; Oct/Nov'26 opened higher at $39.00/mt and continued to strengthen as the morning progressed, trading up to $41.00/mt. Nov/Dec'26 also saw buy-side interest, trading up from $27.00/mt to $28.50/mt. Oct'26 380 crack opened around 75c higher at $0.65/bbl; it was aggressively bid up to $1.20/bbl before coming off and trading between $0.80/bbl and $1.00/bbl for the remainder of the morning. Barge spreads were very thin this morning; Oct/Nov'26 traded at $20.00/mt post-window, and Oct'26 Barge crack was range-bound, trading between -$9.75/bbl and -$9.50/bbl.

This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw selling early on before coming better bid Oct/Nov'26 trading from $5.35/bbl down to $4.85/bbl, then back to $5.50/bbl last. E/W sold down to -$145.00/mt, then was bid up to -$135.00/mt before selling off again to -$140.00/mt at the end of the window. Oct/Nov'26 kero was well bid at $3.30/bbl, pushing Oct'26 regrade up to -$3.05/bbl. Prompt ICE gasoil spreads weakened overall, with Nov/Dec'26 trading from $72.50/mt down to $68.50/mt, while Nov'26 cracks weakened from $87.50/bbl down to $86.00/bbl.

This morning, in gasoline, the East was weak. Oct'26 cracks got sold down from $31.90/bbl to lows of $30.50/bbl, with 92/MOPJ’s also offered down from 30.70//bbl to $30.10/bbl. Spreads were mixed, as Oct/Nov'26 weakened from $10.25/bbl to $10.10/bbl before finding support at the end window. E/W continued to drift lower, trading down from -$11.50/bbl to -$11.85/bbl, with EBOB seeing scale-back buying on cracks down from $42.85/bbl to $42.50/bbl. Spreads were balanced, with Oct/Nov'26 trading at $109.00/mt post-window.

This morning, naphtha was weaker in Europe despite higher crude pricing spreads up, with MOC better bid and E/W strong across the curve, while 92/MOPJ selling supported MOPJ. NWE Cracks moved lower, with Oct'26 down from -$4.60/bbl to -$5.15/bbl, while Oct/Nov'26 and Nov/Dec'26 crack rolls were around -$0.25/bbl and $0.30/bbl; spreads were offered but higher, with Oct/Nov'26 moving from $27.50/mt to $28.50/mt, Nov/Dec'26 at $28.00/mt and Dec/Jan'27 at $18.75/mt. E/W was stronger versus last night, with Oct'26 up to $63.50/mt, Cal 27 at $34.00/mt and Q4'26 around $60.00/mt, while boxes were bid as Dec/Jan'27 moved to $9.50/mt versus $8.50/mt yesterday and Jan/Feb'27 traded at $4.50/mt. MOPJ cracks were supported by 92/MOPJ selling and E/W strength, but were lower on the Europe move, with Oct'26 around $2.00/bbl, Nov'26 at $2.20/bbl and Q4'26 at $1.90/bbl; spreads were bid in the deferred, with Jan/May'27 up to $92.50/mt pre-window, while Oct/Nov'26 moved from $28.00/mt to $28.50/mt and Nov/Dec'26 from $29.25/mt to $30.00/mt.

This morning in NGLs, things were initially strong in the East, with FEI flat price and spreads trading higher. Oct/Nov'26 FEI opened the day at $34.50/mt, compared to $31.50/mt last night, and Nov/Dec'26 FEI was trading at $30.00/mt and $31.00/mt, up from last night’s $27.50/mt close. As FEI was stronger, FEICP also trading up in both Oct'26 and Nov'26, trading at $178.00/mt and $182.00/mt respectively. In CP, Oct/Nov'26 traded $32.00/mt before strengthening to close the morning at $35.00/mt print as CP flat price was bid in the front. Limited interest in Oct'26 LST/FEI, but traded at -$385.00/mt up to -$380.00/mt, before softening into close at -$383.00/mt print. Had buyer of Q4'26 FEI/MOPJ at -$60.00/mt, which eventually strengthened $1 by close. End window on screen Oct'26 FEI flat price was lifted at $856.00/mt.