Brent Up as Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline Restart Takes Longer Than Anticipated

Later on, following news that the US and Iran were discussing a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, prices dropped to $104.26/bbl at 17:40, before firming once again to $105.35/bbl at 18:02 BST (time of writing). In the news, Saudi Arabia is building up crude pumping volumes through its East-West Pipeline, though crude tanker loadings have yet to resume, according to Reuters sources. The kingdom restarted the pipeline this week after a drone attack forced its shutdown earlier this month, though the latest data suggests slower progress than expected, given loadings had been scheduled to resume on 22 Sep. Elsewhere, Russia has begun commercial oil exports from Rosneft's Vostok Oil. Moscow hopes that the vast Arctic development will lift crude production after years of delays and sanctions. State-controlled Rosneft began loading crude in September onto specialised ice-class tankers at its newly built Bukhta Sever terminal on the Taimyr Peninsula, marking the operational debut of a project once billed as capable of producing up to 2mb/d. For now, exports remain far below target, with Reuters sources expecting volumes to average about 150kb/d this year, largely supplied from Rosneft's mature Vankor fields. Relatedly, Serbia's Russian-owned NIS, which runs the country's only oil refinery, said that it has applied for a new US sanctions waiver to continue operations past 30 Sep, when its current one expires. A new waiver would let NIS — which supplies up to 80% of the Serbian market — keep importing crude until the planned sale of the Russian stake to Hungary's MOL goes through. In other news, India's oil minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, has said that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are interested in investing in India's refining sector. "Nobody wants to come and invest in a refinery unless they can also get a slice of your growing downstream market," Puri said at an event. India aims to expand refining capacity to 6.2-6.4mb/d from around 5.4mb/d currently, through new plants and upgrades to existing units, he said. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Nov/Dec’26) and 6-month (Nov/May’27) Brent futures spreads are at $5.71/bbl and $17.83/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated we continued to see roll buying pre-window with buying of 19-23 Oct 3-week up to $5.10/bbl and buying out of 26-30 Oct into Cal Nov. The physical window was quiet with no cargo offers for the first time this week. The paper window was strong again with refiners, trades and majors lifting CFDs. 12-16 Oct CFD traded up to $9.6/bbl and 19-23 Oct CFD up to $6.80/bbl. Post window we saw a size buyer of Cal Oct vs 12-23 Oct at $1.20/bbl and 19-30 Oct vs Cal Nov lifting $4.95/bbl.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai we continued to move lower. The Brent/Dubai continued to be very quiet, with all OTC interest being in the Dubai spread. There continued to be large trade buying of Oct/Nov spread, and producer buying of Oct/Nov/Dec Dubai fly. The Oct Brent/Dubai traded between -$2.80/bbl to -$3.70/bbl. The Oct/Nov Dubai spread traded up from $6.70/bbl to $7.40/bbl, giving back some of the move following the news headline. The boxes traded very choppy, the Oct/Nov box lower but boxes behind better bid.

In VLSFO, Sing 0.5% cracks were slightly stronger this afternoon while spreads were thin and price action was muted, Oct/Nov'26 traded between $42.25/mt and $42.50/mt and Nov/Dec'26 between $35.25/mt and $35.50/mt both spreads traded in low volume. Oct'26 Sing crack saw better volume and was bid up on screen from $23.30/bbl to $23.75/bbl, Nov'26 Sing crack saw more OTC volume and was bid up from $20.40/bbl to $20.90/bbl. Euro 0.5% was thin again this afternoon particularly in spreads, Oct/Nov'26 traded up from $12.25/mt to $13.25/mt in very low volume, Oct'26 Euro crack saw slightly better volume and was choppy but ultimately traded up from $0.30/bbl to $0.55/bbl.

In HSFO, Sing 380 spreads were slightly better bid this afternoon although liquidity was thin, while cracks were much stronger. Oct/Nov'26 was bid up from $40.75/mt to $42.00/mt, Nov/Dec'26 traded 2 dollars higher to $30.00/mt. Oct'26 380 crack saw slightly less liquidity than usual, it rallied aggressively in the early afternoon getting bid up from $1.00/bbl to $2.00/bbl in low volume, it then stabilised and traded between $1.85/bbl and $2.10/bbl. Oct'26 Barge crack was choppy trading between -$10.00/bbl and -$9.55/bbl for the majority of the afternoon, it has sold down to -$9.30/bbl post window. Oct/Nov'26 Barges were bid up from $19.50/mt to $21.50/mt.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were scale back offered on higher ICE gasoil, with Oct/Nov trading from $4.60/bbl up to $4.90/bbl. Oct E/W saw selling from -$128/mt down to -$137.50/mt into end window. Regrade was quiet, with Oct at -$3.55/bbl, while Oct/Nov kero traded rangebound between $2.55/bbl and $2.65/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads rallied into end window before selling off, with Nov/Dec trading from $63/mt up to $71.50/mt, then back to $68/mt while Nov cracks firmed overall to $86/bbl. European jet diffs firmed slightly in the front, with Oct trading up to $93/mt, while Dec traded up to $118/mt.

This afternoon in gasoline RBBRs were choppy, rallying into US open before coming off and trading around $35.00/bbl end window. Arbs weakened as the RBBR softened, with Oct'26 arbs seeing scaleback buyside interest from tradehouses down from -3.50c/gal to -5.75c/gal. EBOB was strong again, with Oct'26 cracks trading up from $42.80/bbl to $43.90/bbl and Oct/Nov'26 got lifted up to highs of $112.50/mt. E/W continued to weaken, trading down to -$12.65/bbl with front 92 cracks seeing better sellside interest at $31.00/bbl.

This afternoon in naphtha was weaker in Europe but firmer in E/W, with MOC quiet and front cracks dumping as higher Brent failed to pull NWE spreads up. NWE naphtha came off versus the morning, with Oct'26 cracks falling from -$5.15/bbl to -$5.90/bbl post-window, while crack rolls priced down across the curve on spread weakness, as Oct/Nov'26 crack roll dropped to -$0.60/bbl with Nov'26 trading around -$5.30/bbl; spreads stayed offered in the front, with Oct/Nov'26 down to $27.75/mt, while deferred spreads were better supported, with Dec/Jan'27 at $19.50/mt, with Mar/Apr'27 at $21.25/mt and Apr/Jun'27 at $30.00/mt. E/W was higher with the full structure bid, as Oct'26 moved up to $65.00/mt, Q1'27 rose to $48.00/mt and Cal 27 to $35.00/mt. MOPJ was illiquid but supported by the stronger E/W on spreads, with Dec/Mar'27 up to $83.00/mt, while cracks were thin aside from Dec'26 trading at $1.45/bbl post-window.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI spreads softened slightly from the closing morning levels. Oct/Nov'26 FEI traded down to $33.00/mt where it found support, and Nov/Dec'26 was at $30.00/mt, trading to a low of $29.50/mt briefly. Dec/Dec'26 26/27 selling continued, trading at $198.00/mt compared to the morning level of $184.00/mt. LST/FEI interest in both the prompt and deferred, seeing Oct'26 trade down to -$392.00/mt, and Q1'27 was sold at –$294.00/mt, compared to yesterday’s final level of -$282.00/mt. LST saw spread selling down the curve today. Oct/Dec'26 was sold at 1.875c/gal, and in the deferred, Q1/2 27 was trading at 6.75c/gal, where it eventually closed the afternoon. Dec/Jan'27 was also getting sold at 1.25c/gal, up 0.125c/gal from yesterday’s close. In butane, C4 ENT also saw spread selling in the front. Oct/Nov'26 initially opened at 1.25c/gal before strengthening to 1.50c/gal, and Nov/Dec'26 had good selling at 1.375c/gal. Oct'26 C4/C3 LST sold at 42.50c/gal before rallying to print 43.25c/gal by end window.