Brent Firms Despite Potential ‘Shadow Fleet’ Restriction Easing

In the news, the US is weighing steps to ease restrictions on the world's "shadow fleet" of tankers, according to a US official, with talks centred on potentially allowing "legal oil" to flow on previously sanctioned vessels. The Department of Energy said any sanctions relief for the shadow fleet would not help Russia move oil or oil products. Elsewhere, the IEA has said that total stock releases will exceed the 400mb originally agreed in March, with members committing to speed up the release of remaining volumes. The agency said members agreed to take all necessary steps to complete the remaining releases of around 100mb, including over 20mb of diesel, promptly consistent with national circumstances. In Russia, the Kremlin announced that Russian diesel has begun reaching global markets following the US-Russia diesel agreement. US President Trump said last week that Russia had agreed to supply diesel to help lower fuel prices, with Moscow partially lifting its diesel export ban from 10 Oct. LSEG data showed Russia resumed diesel export loadings from the Baltic port of Primorsk on 14 Oct, with a tanker carrying about 40kmt of ultra-low sulphur diesel loaded 13 Oct and heading toward Morocco. Relatedly, the Kremlin also said that Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries run counter to US peace efforts, after a Ukrainian drone hit a refinery in Russia's Ryazan region overnight. Trump declared an energy ceasefire last Sunday, which Ukraine said it learned of through media reports and Russia never publicly committed to. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow doesn't believe Kyiv ever complied, calling the latest strike "nothing new," and blamed Zelenskiy's unwillingness to make peace for thwarting US efforts to initiate a peace process. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’27) and 6-month (Dec/May’27) Brent futures spreads are at $2.58/bbl and $12.48/bbl, respectively.

The Dated complex was choppy this afternoon, especially in the prompt, while the curve from Dec'26 onwards firmed more steadily. Balmo DFL strengthened, trading $6.70/bbl at noon, all the way to $8.70/bbl during the end of the window. It has eased back to $7.60/bbl. Nov'26 DFL strengthened to $4.20/bbl in the window before easing back to $3.76/bbl. Dec'26 DFL firmed from $3.30/bbl to $3.70/bbl despite selling, which lifted Dec/Jan'27 DFL from $0.65/bbl to $0.75/bbl, and Nov/Dec'26 DFL was bought at $0.33/bbl pre-window. On the physical side, a trade house was offering a WTI Midland cargo through the window before one buyer lifted the offer. In the days market, the prompt CFDs found buying: 19-23 Oct'26 rallied from $7.70/bbl to $8.95/bbl even as sellers stepped in at $8.00/bbl, and 26-30 Oct'26 climbed from $2.65/bbl to $3.70/bbl. On screen, Dec/Jan'27 Brent firmed from $2.54/bbl at the open to $2.63/bbl and Jan/Feb'27 from $2.41/bbl to $2.55/bbl, taking the front Brent fly back positive, around +11c now.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai was choppy. The Nov'26 Brent/Dubai initially traded higher, up from -$1.79/bbl to -$1.54/bbl, before selling off sharply in the early afternoon down to -$1.95/bbl, finishing around -$1.84/bbl. There was selling of Nov'26 Brent/Dubai around -$1.70/bbl and two-way interest in Dec'26 Brent/Dubai, with buying around -$1.30/bbl to -$1.27/bbl and selling later at -$1.48/bbl. The buying was all products higher, which once it was taken out we moved lower. Later on there was buying of Nov'26 Brent/Dubai in size around -$1.85/bbl by tradehouse. The Dubai spreads were well bid, the Nov/Dec'26 Dubai spread trading up from $2.63/bbl to $3.10/bbl despite some selling around $2.97/bbl. The Nov/Dec'26 box traded range-bound between -$0.33/bbl to -$0.47/bbl, and there was selling of Q1/Q2'27 box around -$0.05/bbl.

Sing 0.5 spreads traded slightly higher this afternoon while cracks came off, Euro 0.5 remained quite illiquid and traded at similar levels to this morning. Nov/Dec'26 Sing traded up 50c to $29.00/mt in the early afternoon and has since traded around $28.75/mt, Dec/Jan'27 Sing traded between $28.25/mt to $28.75/mt. Nov'26 Sing crack was offered down on screen from $26.20/bbl in the early afternoon to $25.55/bbl by window start, it then shed another 20c to $24.35/bbl in the window, Dec'26 Sing crack traded 35c lower to $23.60/bbl. Euro 0.5 continued to struggle for liquidity this afternoon, particularly Euro spreads with Nov/Dec'26 euro initially trading up a dollar to $17.00/mt before getting offered down to $15.75/mt, Dec/Jan'27 consistently traded at $14.00/mt. Nov'26 Euro crack saw better volume and was choppy, it was better bid in the early afternoon trading up to $2.30/bbl before selling off to $1.55/bbl, rebounding back to $2.00/bbl and then selling back down to $1.55/bbl in the window.

380 complex saw real selling this afternoon. Nov/Dec'26 380 sold off from $59.00/mt to $54.50/mt where it found support; it then traded back up to $57.00/mt where it traded in the window and last traded at $55.75/mt, Dec/Jan'27 has traded down from $39.50/mt to $38.50/mt. Nov'26 380 crack was aggressively offered down on screen from $14.00/bbl to $12.50/bbl in the early afternoon, it traded back up as high as $13.00/bbl, but ultimately sell-side interest prevailed, and it sold down to $11.90/bbl post-window. Nov/Dec'26 Barges weakened coming into the afternoon trading down from $24.00/mt to $22.00/mt, Dec/Jan'27 shed a dollar to $20.75/mt, Nov'26 Barge crack sold off this afternoon too; it sold off from -$7.30/bbl to -$7.90/bbl in the window and then to -$8.30/bbl post-window.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads continued to see selling in Mar/Dec'26, trading from $28.25/bbl down to $28.00/bbl. Front E/W saw good support, with Dec'26 trading from -$118.00/mt up to -$110.50/mt as regrade weakened in the front, Nov'26 from $1.70/bbl down to $1.60/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads were range-bound, with Nov/Dec'26 trading down initially to $40.25/mt before firming to $41.75/mt into the end of the window, while Dec'26 cracks traded range-bound around $80.25/bbl. European jet diffs were well bid in Summer, with Q2'27 trading up to $125.00/mt.

This afternoon gasoline was weak again, with Dec'26 RBBRs coming off around a dollar. Arbs saw mixed interest as they weakend from highs of 8.00c/gal to 6.25c/gal, with Q2'27 valued at 30.50c/gal. EBOB was better offered again but cracks remained relatively range-bound, trading at $24.00/bbl end window. Spreads were mixed, with Nov/Dec'26 trading at $59.00/mt and Dec/Mar'27 was well offered down to $35.00/mt. E/W came off from -$3.50/bbl to -$4.10/bbl with 92 spreads seeing better selling interest, as Nov/Dec'26 traded down to $5.20/bbl.

This afternoon, naphtha was weaker overall, with MOC balanced and E/W and front cracks coming under pressure, while spreads recovered from early lows. NWE naphtha weakened from the morning, with Nov'26 cracks falling from -$3.90/bbl to -$4.40/bbl; Dec'26 finished at -$5.25/bbl and the Dec/Jan'27 crack roll at $0.12/bbl. Spreads were mixed, with Bal/Nov'26 recovering from $29.00/mt to $30.00/mt post-window, Nov/Dec'26 back at $31.00/mt and Dec/Jan'27 up to $19.50/mt after falling to $18.50/mt. E/W sold off sharply early, with Nov'26 falling from $84.00/mt this morning to $78.00/mt before recovering to $79.50/mt post-window; Dec'26 ended at $76.50/mt, leaving the Nov/Dec'26 box around $3.00/mt, while Q1'27 finished at $59.50/mt versus $63.00/mt earlier, trading $58.00/mt at the lows. MOPJ cracks were pressured by the weaker E/W but remained illiquid in the window, with Nov'26 around $4.30/bbl and Dec'26 around $3.10/bbl pre-window versus $4.10/bbl this morning; spreads held up better, with Nov/Dec'26 at $34.00/mt post-window, while the rest of the curve was illiquid, although Dec/Jan'27 was around $28.75/mt earlier.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI structure was softer with Nov/Dec'26 FEI trading at $37.00/mt at midday down from $38.50/mt at morning's close. FEI/CP remained illiquid this afternoon with Q2'27 FEI/CP trading at $120.00/mt pre-window before stepping down slightly to $119.50/mt.

The arb remained strong this afternoon with the Nov'26 LST/FEI trading at -$382.00/mt and -$380.00/mt, firm against this morning’s levels whilst the Q1'27 LST/FEI continued to rally trading multiple times at -$302.00/mt and a peak of -$301.00/mt.

LST was slightly stronger with Nov/Dec'26 LST trading at 1.375c/gal up from 1.25c/gal pre-window. LST spreads were much more illiquid that flat price which traded through 107.00c/gal off stronger crude. The EPC/LST was traded today at 0.875c/gal in Dec'26 firm against yesterday’s levels.

FEI/MOPJs were better bid this afternoon with Q1'27 FEI/MOPJ trading at $-$42.00/mt and $-$43.00/mt which was higher than the levels seen pre-window of -$45.00/mt and -$44.00/mt.

There was also selling of the Dec/Q1'27 C4 ENT/C3 LST box which traded at 8.875c/gal. Butane continued to rip with Nov'26 C4/C3 up to a high of 58.00c/gal during the window compared to 54.25c/gal yesterday. This was also reflected in the butane spreads with Nov/Dec'26 Butane trading at 6.375c/gal pre window before stepping up to 7.375c/gal by the close. Q1/Q2'27 C4 ENT also traded at 26.00c/gal up from 24.75c/gal yesterday. There was also some buying of the Jan'27 bunap trading at -$145.50/mt.