Brent Firms, Meanwhile, OPEC+ Producers Likely to Keep Targets Steady

In the news, oil and gas production in the key producing states of Texas, Louisiana, and New Mexico rose in Q3 2026, the Dallas Fed said in a survey today, though the Iran war continues to cause uncertainty in producers' plans. Elsewhere, OPEC+ producers are likely to keep oil production targets steady for November at the group’s meeting scheduled for Sunday, though no final decision has been made. OPEC+ has raised output targets for most of the year but held them steady for October. In other news, Russia has extended its ban on diesel exports for fuel producers until the end of October, the government said today, adding further strain to a global energy market already rattled by ongoing conflicts and supply shortages. Moscow has repeatedly curbed gasoline and diesel exports to rein in rising fuel prices and tackle shortages triggered by Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries; it last extended the diesel export ban in late August through the end of September, while still allowing supplies to countries like former Soviet republics and Mongolia under intergovernmental agreements. Finally, at the time of writing, the Dec/Jan’26 and Dec/Jun’27 Brent futures spreads are at $2.72/bbl and $11.05/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon continued to be choppy in Dated. Pre-window we saw strong buying of prompt rolls with Cal Oct vs 19-23 Oct lifted at $4.45.bbl and buy-side interest in 5-9 Oct 3-week. However then saw a major hitting 19-23 Oct 3-week at $4.20/bbl. The physical window was stronger with a trade buying 3 Midland cargos, pushing the diff up to around $15, before another trade started offering down. The paper window wasn’t as strong, although we saw good buying of 5-9 Oct CFD at $15.60/bbl from a trade. Post-window, DFLs came back off.

In VLSFO, Sing 0.5% strengthened this afternoon, there was real buying on spreads which saw Oct/Nov'26 get bid up from $36.00/mt to $39.00/mt pre window and strengthen a further 50c to $39.50/mt, Nov/Dec'26 also saw good buying from $34.00/mt to $36.50/mt. Oct'26 Sing crack did not trade in high volume, but did strengthen from $24.50/mt to $25.15/mt pre window, it didn’t trade in the window and then traded up again post window to $25.50/mt, Nov'26 crack also strengthened from $21.50/bbl to $22.30/bbl. Liquidity remained low in the Euro curve but it also strengthened, Oct/Nov'26 was bid up from $11.50/mt to $13.00/mt by window start, it came off to $12.50/mt post window, Nov/Dec'26 gained a dollar to $13.50/mt over the course of the afternoon. Oct'26 Euro crack remained gappy and traded between -$0.30/bbl and $0.30/bbl. 0.5 e.w was very illiquid today and is printing at very high levels, currently around $162.25/mt.

In HSFO, 380 complex was much stronger this afternoon with real buying on both cracks and spreads. Oct/Nov'26 was aggressively bid up from $34.50/mt to $46.00/mt in the early afternoon, it then continued to strengthen leading up to the window trading around $47.50/mt, during the window it briefly traded up to $48.50/mt before scale back selling came in and it weakened to $47.25/mt. Oct'26 380 crack saw less volume than expected but was still bid up from $4.00/mt to $5.00/mt over the course of the afternoon. Barge spreads were stable this afternoon with Oct/Nov'26 consistently trading around $15.00/mt, Oct'26 Barge crack was range-bound trading between -$10.25/bbl and -$9.90/bbl, therefore 380 e/w was implied higher from $92.25/mt to $96.50/mt although little has traded at this level.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were well bid throughout, with Nov/Dec'26 trading from $6.40/bbl up to $7.60/bbl, while front E/W roofed, Oct'26 from -$115.00/mt up to -$88.00/mt last. Regrade also saw strength, with Oct'26 moving from -$1.30/bbl up to highs of $1.15/bbl lifted, while Oct/Nov'26 kero was lifted from $3.90/bbl up to $7.25/bbl.
Prompt ICE gasoil spreads rallied initially, with Nov/Dec'26 trading from $60.00/mt up to $67.50/mt, before weakening back to $62.00/mt. European jet diffs saw strength in the prompt, Oct'26 trading from $108.00/mt early afternoon to $127.00/mt last.

This afternoon in gasoline, EBOB MOC better bid. E/W flies - seeing Oct'26 E/W rally up to highs of $1.00/bbl from yesterday’s close of -$3.75/bbl where it softens slightly, trading $0.60/bbl at the end of Europe window. More buying in 92 spreads, seeing Oct/Nov'26 getting lifted by trade up to $15.50/bbl. EBOB also stronger today, seeing Oct'26 arb trading -7.25c/gal end of window, with Oct'26 EBOB crack rallying up to $42/bbl with some selling in the Dec'26 arb at 10.15c/gal this afternoon.

This afternoon in naphtha was firmer overall, as cracks and spreads extended the morning rally before easing from the highs as Brent came off. MOPJ strengthened, with Oct'26 cracks rising from $1.30/bbl this morning to $1.65/bbl post-window on a flat price basis, while Q1'27 improved from -$1.70/bbl to around -$1.25/bbl; spreads remained supported, with Oct/Nov'26 at $26.00/mt and Nov/Dec'26 implied around $26.00/mt post-window. E/W held firm, with Oct'26 up from $64.00/mt this morning to $68.00/mt post-window, the Oct/Dec'26 box widening from $1.50/mt to $5.00/mt and Q1'27 easing from an early-afternoon $48.50/mt high to $47.00/mt. NWE naphtha cracks gave back the early strength, with Oct'26 rallying to -$5.25/bbl before ending at -$5.70/bbl, while Q1'27 was -$6.75/bbl and the Q1/Q2'27 roll $1.70/bbl; spreads also eased from the highs but stayed firmer versus the morning, with Oct/Nov'26 at $24.00/mt, Nov/Dec'26 implied around $24.00/mt as the front fly traded flat, and Dec/Jan'27 at $14.75/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI flat price rallied from $854.00/mt to $861.00/mt, trading at a peak of $862.00/mt. Overall, FEI spreads were illiquid this afternoon with Oct/Nov'26 FEI trading at $37.50/mt and $38.00/mt through the session. Dec/Dec'26 FEI also saw some selling interest trading at $190.00/mt up from printing around $185.00/mt earlier today.
Overall, FEI/MOPJs continued to sell off with Oct'26 FEI/MOPJ continuing to fall from $-$29.00/mt to $-$32.00/mt, off the back of continued MOPJ strength. LST/FEI continued to sell off down the curve with Oct'26 LST/FEI trading at $-$389.00/mt, down from -$382 earlier in the afternoon. LST spreads sold off this afternoon as Oct/Nov'26 LST traded as low as 1.00c/gal versus highs of 1.75c/gal and Nov'26 LST traded at 88.75c/gal. EPC/LST also traded, with the Oct/Nov'26 box trading for -0.375c/gal. C4 ENT also traded up aggressively at the open with Oct'26 ENT trading at $1.3625/gal up from $1.34/gal pre-window. However, Butane spreads fell in the front as Nov'26 Butane rose more aggressively. As a result, Oct/Nov'26 ENT traded at 2.50c/gal during the window, down from 3.00c/gal pre-window.