Brent firms on Houthi attacks, meets resistance above $98/bbl

In the news, the Houthis attacked four cities in southern Saudi Arabia, wounding over 70 people. Houthi-controlled media reported that Saudi warplanes had later carried out four airstrikes in Yemen's Jubah district east of Sanaa. In other news, stocks of crude oil in the US SPR fell by around 1.2mb to 285.4 million mb in the week ending 04 Sep, recording a new low since 1982. The Dangote refinery's CEO, David Bird, told Reuters that fuel shortages are likely to persist long after the US war with Iran due to damage inflicted on refineries and due to global product inventories sitting at low levels. This comes at a time when the refinery is set to double its capacity to equal that of the Jamnagar refinery in India (1.4mb/d) while planning a second refinery in Kenya. The Trump administration is seeking greater US access to Venezuela's minerals, including gold, in an attempt to gain control over Venezuela's natural resources beyond oil, according to Reuters. Finally, at the time of writing, the Nov/Dec'26 and Nov/May'26 Brent futures spreads stand at $3.54/bbl and $14.57/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated Brent, we continued to see better selling of 28-02 Oct structure and Balmo DFL bounced a touch pre-window on anticipation of firmer CFDs. Balmo DFL recovered from $9.30/bbl to $9.60/bbl, but was sold back down to end the day on the lows at $8.78/bbl pre-window. 8-14/10 saw US buying in the window, getting hit at $0.93/bbl and $0.90/bbl, whilst Oct'26 DFL drifted lower throughout the session, closing at $4.70/bbl. The physical again was well bid. However, buy-side appetite was lacking in CFD's, with 21-25/9's hit down to $8.30/bbl, and $28.00/bbl-2/10 CFT trading at $9.80/bbl.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai, we traded range-bound; the Oct'26 Brent/Dubai traded between $0.25/bbl to $0.40/bbl. There was some buying by trade houses in the low $0.30s and thick buying of Brent/Dubai on screen. The main flow was large buying of Full Sep'26 Dubai vs Dec'26 ICE, which traded in 5k plus. Trade houses took some profit and sold into this flow. The Dubai spreads were very quiet and tracked Brent spreads, weakening into and post-the Euro window. The Brent/Dubai boxes traded range-bound, Oct/Nov'26 box between -$2.00/bbl to -$1.80/bbl.

In VLSFO, Sing 0.5% was offered this afternoon, spreads encountered real selling, with Oct/Nov'26 trading down from $37.50/mt to $36.50/mt, while Nov/Dec'26 was offered down from $27.25/mt to $26.50/mt. Oct'26 Sing crack traded in high volume on screen and sold off from $20.65/bbl to $20.00/bbl. It was a relatively thin afternoon in Euro 0.5%; Oct/Nov'26 was offered down from $17.50/bbl to $17.00/bbl, while the Oct'26 crack was choppy, trading down from $4.25/bbl to $3.65/bbl before bouncing back up to $3.90/bbl post window.

In HSFO, Chinese arbers aggressively selling 380 flat price characterised the early afternoon; 380 spreads did not see much volume traded, and Oct/Nov'26 traded slightly lower from $18.50/mt to $18.00/mt; Oct'26 380 crack traded between -$5.90/bbl and -$5.70/bbl. The 3.5% barge complex was thin this afternoon but was offered overall; Oct/Nov'26 lost a dollar, trading down to $12.50/mt, and Oct'26 crack saw real selling on screen from -$11.40/bbl down to -$11.80/bbl. 380 e/w was implied higher, from $37.25/mt to $39.50/mt.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads drifted lower with ICE gasoil, with Nov/Dec'26 trading down to $5.70/bbl hit on screen while front E/W was mixed, with Oct'26 trading between -$92.00/mt and -$92.75/mt. Regrade was sold down to -$2.65/bbl off Oct/Dec'26 regrade roll selling at -$5.90/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads were mixed, with Sep/Oct'26 higher and Oct/Dec'26 moving lower. Cracks sold off across the curve, with Nov'26 futures moving from $75.00/bbl down to $73.80/bbl. European jet diffs saw buying into Q1'27, with Oct'26 up to $86.00/mt while Dec'26 traded up to $113.00/mt.

This afternoon in gasoline, mixed interest in MOC with real buyers and sellers in Oct'26, with the Oct'26 EBOB crack trading $34.15/bbl end of window. Sep/Oct'26 EBOB far better offered on the back of weaker barges, seeing Sep/Oct'26 trading down to $125.00/mt, left offered on. Buying in Q2'27 arb at 30.30/gal and 30/gal, with Dec'26 arb better offered this afternoon.

This afternoon in naphtha was mixed, with MOC offered, cracks bid and prompt E/W supported, while MOPJ remained very thin. NWE naphtha strengthened throughout the day, with Oct'26 cracks moving from around -$3.80/bbl this morning to -$3.10/bbl post-window, while Q1'27 improved to -$4.70/bbl. Spreads were mixed, with Dec/Jan'27 down from $20.00/mt to $19.25/mt, Nov/Dec'26 at $29.50/mt and Oct/Dec'26 bid and trading at $59.00/mt. E/W held broadly steady versus the morning but had some better bid tone in the backend, with Nov'26 E/W bid at $58.00/mt and Q1'27 up from $45.00/mt to $45.75/mt. MOPJ was illiquid, particularly through the window, though Oct/Nov'26 cracks traded around $0.20/bbl for decent volume in the early afternoon; spreads were little changed to softer versus the morning, with Nov/Dec'26 down from $33.00/mt to $31.50/mt, though little else traded.

This afternoon in NGLs, LST flat price was initially balanced, opening bid with both arbs and FEI strong. LST then turned offered as FEI weakened, before finding support again once arb buyers stepped in. LST flat price traded around 83.25c/gal for most of the afternoon, while Oct'26 FEI traded down to $828.00/mt and the arb strengthened to -$390.00/mt. LST spreads moved higher throughout the afternoon as Cal selling came into the market, with Q4/Q1'27 trading at 2.125c/gal and Q1/Q2'27 at 5.50c/gal. With FEI weakening, FEI spreads also came under pressure, with Oct/Nov'26 trading at $37.50/mt and Nov/Dec'26 at $35.00/mt. US butane was well bid throughout the afternoon, with C4/C3 moving higher and Oct'26 trading at 42.75c/gal. Butane spreads also strengthened, with Oct/Nov'26 trading at 2.25c/gal.