Brent flat sub-$100 amid UNGA hope

President Donald Trump said US officials held a “very good” three-hour meeting with Iranian representatives in New York, during the UNGA. Iranian state media confirmed Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met US special envoy Steve Witkoff, with Trump saying another meeting is expected soon. Trump gave a speech to the UN, in which he said he faces a choice between a deal allowing Iran to rebuild or “annihilating” the Islamic Republic. He said he expects a deal after the 3 Nov US midterms. Trump said US naval forces had escorted more than 1 billion barrels of oil through Hormuz and claimed 22–37 ships/day were being taken through the Strait. South Korea plans to cut its reliance on Middle Eastern crude to 50% by 2035, from 70% in 2025, while adding around 20mb of crude storage by 2030. The strategy also targets greater condensate procurement as Seoul seeks to reduce its exposure to Hormuz-dependent naphtha supply. China’s seaborne crude imports are running at just under 7mb/d in September, below July–August levels and far below the 10.5mb/d pre-war average. Vortexa estimates China has bought 600mb less seaborne crude than a year ago, with the deficit potentially approaching 1bn barrels by year-end if current rates persist. Finally, the Nov/Dec’26 and Nov/May’27 Brent futures spreads are at $3.78/bbl and $13.71/bbl, respectively.

This morning in Dated we initially saw some Oct'26 DFL buying and strong buy side interest out of $19.00/bbl-23 Oct/Cal Nov'26 bid $3.70/bbl. However then saw some selling come in with 28-2 Oct'26 1w offered down and selling out of $28.00/bbl-2 Oct/Cal Oct'26. We also saw 5-9 Oct/Cal Oct'26 sold at $5.85/bbl then offered down to $5.80/bbl by trade, with Oct/Nov'26 coming lower. Further down we saw strong buy side interest in 2-13 Nov'26 vs 16-30 Nov'26 however, a major offering 19-23 Oct/Cal Nov'26 and $26.00/bbl-30 Oct/Cal Nov'26.

This morning continued to be very quiet in Brent/Dubai. We initially traded slightly higher, but major and trade buying of Oct/Nov'26 and Nov/Dec'26 Dubai, meant we traded between $0.00/bbl to $0.30/bbl in the Oct'26 Brent/Dubai. There was some fund selling of Jan'27 Brent/Dubai. The Oct/Nov'26 Dubai traded slightly higher, up from $4.15/bbl to $4.40/bbl, retracing the overnight gap lower. The boxes were mixed, both buy and sellside interest in Oct/Nov'26 Brent/Dubai, trading up around $0.10/bbl on the day, the boxes behind slightly lower.

Sing 0.5% spreads were thin this morning, Oct/Nov'26 opened 50c lower at $44.00/mt and traded at this level consistently, Nov/Dec'26 was similarly thin but traded up 50c from $35.00/mt to $35.50/mt. Sing cracks saw better volume but was still less than usual, Oct'26 cracks saw buyside interest from Chinese arbers, it opened 25c higher at $23.15/bbl and was then bid up to $23.65/bbl. Euro cracks were quite illiquid and volatile this morning, initially trading up 60c to $0.90/bbl on very low volume, it was then offered down on screen to $0.70/bbl during the window before rallying back up to $1.00/bbl post window. Euro spreads were relatively quiet with Oct/Nov'26 trading up from $11.50/mt to $12.00/mt post window and Nov/Dec'26 trading around $13.00/mt.

It was a thin morning in 380, there was initially sell side interest on spreads but this subsided and Oct/Nov'26 was bid up from $35.00/mt to $36.00/mt post window, Nov/Dec'26 also gained 75c to $23.50/mt. 380 cracks were much thinner than usual this morning, however Oct'26 380 crack saw consistent buyside interest trading up from -$1.20/bbl to -$0.60/bbl. Barge spreads traded higher this morning from $14.50/mt to $15.00/mt, Oct'26 Barge crack saw decent OTC volume pre window this morning getting bid up from -$11.35/bbl to -$11.10/bbl, it was then aggressively bid up on screen to -$10.65/bbl.

This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw some real selling at higher levels, Nov/Dec trading from $7.00/bbl up to $7.50/bbl now back to $6.95/bbl. Front E/W sold off aggressively, trading from -$125/mt down to lows of -$150/mt before recovering to -$136/mt post window. Regrade saw strong selling in Nov, hit down to -$2/bbl, with Nov/Dec kero selling. Prompt ICE gasoil spreads rallied into the window, Oct/Nov trading from $60.00/mt up to highs of $78.00/mt, while Nov cracks firmed to $92.50/bbl.

This morning in gasoline, mixed interest in 92 MOC. E/W weakens on the back of EBOB strength this morning, seeing refiners buyside of Oct'26 E/W -$8.50/bbl this morning, seeing it getting hit -$10.00/bbl on screen end of window. EBOB crack stronger with some selling in Oct/Nov'26 crack roll at $10.10/bbl this morning, seeing the crack roll rally implied $10.40/bbl end of window with the flat price spread trading $108.50/mt. Sell side interest in arbs t despite strong RBBRs, with selling in Q2'27 Arb down from 27/gal to 26.8/gal from trade, with Oct'26 arb better offered also – with selling in Oct'26 -1.2/gal end of window.

This morning in naphtha was choppy as Brent spreads ripped into the open, with MOC better bid as front spreads firmed. NWE naphtha cracks were initially bid, with Oct'26 up to -$3.65/bbl before coming off to -$4.00/bbl and recovering to -$3.80/bbl post-window, while the Oct/Nov'26 roll moved from $0.40/bbl to $0.50/bbl and Q1/Q2'27 traded at $1.95/bbl; spreads were relatively illiquid, with Oct/Nov'26 trading at $27.50/mt, Nov/Dec'26 at $25.50/mt and Dec/Jan'27 around $17.25/mt post-window. E/W followed suit, with Oct'26 opening trading up to $59.75/mt then settling back at $59.00/mt, while the Oct/Nov'26 box was flat and Q1/Q2'27 moved up to $9.75/mt. MOPJ cracks were scale-back offered after the early support from lower overnight crude, with Oct'26 easing from $3.00/bbl to $2.80/bbl and Nov'26 from $2.45/bbl to $2.40/bbl; spreads were mixed, with Oct/Nov'26 offered and Nov/Dec'26 bid initially, Oct/Dec'26 trading at $55.00/mt and Nov/Jan'27 at $52.50/mt, alongside continued condor interest around the Q4/Q1'27 region, as Dec/Jan'27 v Feb/Mar'27 traded at $2.00/mt and Nov/Dec'26 v Jan/Feb'27 at $3.00/mt.

Quiet start to the morning today in NGLs. Initially had some small Chinese selling of FEI flat price out of Apr'27 27 at $635.00/mt. FEI spreads traded back up to last night’s closing levels having initially opened slightly weaker. Oct/Nov'26 traded up to $31.00/mt from $29.00/mt, and Nov/Dec'26 strengthened $2 from opening at $24.00/mt. FEI flat price was trading higher with crude across the morning, and as a result LST/FEI was drifting lower in the front. Oct'26 LST/FEI traded -$360.00/mt before closing the morning printing at -$370.00/mt, and Dec'26 traded -$313.00/mt before softening around $5 into close. Had some FEICP selling out of Nov'26 at $170.00/mt, before it strengthen back to last night’s closing level of $173.50/mt. FEI/MOPJs had buying out of both Oct'26 and Q426, trading at -$60.00/mt and -$63.50/mt respectively. End window on screen, Oct'26 FEI flat price was getting lifted at $817.00/mt.