Vincent Wu
Research Associate, Flux
Brent rangebound between $96-97/bbl
Brent rangebound between $96-97/bbl, US-Iran negotiations in Pakistan begin tomorrow, Indian refiners splurge on Russian crude
Published: April 10, 2026
Written by:
Vincent Wu
4 page report
This morning the Jun’26 Brent crude futures has generally been rangebound between $96 and $97/bbl aside from a brief spike above $98/bbl just after 09:30 BST.
Ahead of negotiations in Islamabad tomorrow (Saturday 11 April), President Donald Trump via Truth Social has accused Iran of doing a “very poor job” of allowing oil through the Strait of Hormuz and of breaching the terms of their two-week ceasefire agreement, sparking fresh fears for the shaky truce. US Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead the US delegation, joined by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are expected to lead the Iranian delegation. In other news, Indian refiners have splurged on Russian crude in the last two months, with imports from Russia averaging 1.98mb/d in March, the highest since June 2023, according to Kpler. Japan plans to release an additional 20 days’ worth of oil reserves starting in early May, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Friday as the government tries to stabilise energy prices amid volatility caused by the Middle East conflict. The Chinese government has given state refiners, including Sinopec and CNPC, the green light to tap commercial reserves of oil, held at processing plants or in storage facilities. Chinese independent refiners have bought Iranian oil at premiums to Brent for the first time in years, where at least two refiners in Dongying purchased Iranian Light at premiums of $1.50 to $2/bbl to ICE Brent earlier this week, compared to a $10/bbl discount before the conflict. US Gulf Coast refiners are benefiting from surging margins and export demand as Middle East oil disruptions constrain global supply, though rising crude costs and fragile ceasefire conditions continue to pose risks. Finally, the Jun/Jul and Jun/Dec Brent futures spreads are at $5.27/bbl and $15.96/bbl respectively.
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