Vincent Wu
Research Associate, Flux
Brent Rises to $107.50/bbl
Brent steady ahead of Trump China visit; Japan boosts refinery runs; Vietnam imports surge; Ukraine resumes refinery strikes
Jul’26 Brent crude futures saw relatively tame price action this morning, falling to the $106/bbl level before rising up to $107.50/bbl by 17:00 SGT (10:00 BST).
Prices have traded within a narrow $2 range over the past day, with markets shifting to a wait-and-see mode ahead of Trump’s high-stakes visit to China. His visit comes under the backdrop of the ongoing Iran conflict, which had previously delayed the trip, while trade discussions will remain in focus. Both themes carry significant implications for the oil market, with developments surrounding Iran continuing to shape geopolitical risk premiums, while US-China trade relations was a major driver of market sentiment over the past year. In other news, Japanese refineries increased their run rates to over 70% for the first time since March, as they consumed crude released from stockpiles and alternative supplies (US, Caspian region, Latin America). Vietnam ramped up imports of refined oil products by 17% y/y in March to April to offset a drop in crude supplies, but contributed to an unusual trade deficit and a sharp rise in consumer prices. BP said on Wednesday it has acquired a 40% participating interest in a production sharing agreement covering six oil and gas exploration blocks in Uzbekistan’s Ustyurt region, as it refocused on traditional energy. Ukraine resumed drone attacks on Russia's oil refineries and ports on Wednesday, two days after a three-day proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump expired. Finally, the Jul/Aug and Jul/Jan Brent futures spreads are at $4.01/bbl and $18.30/bbl respectively.
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