Giovanni Simonetti
Junior Data Analyst, Flux
Brent Softens to $99.44/bbl
Brent volatile as Hormuz tensions disrupt shipping; policy responses, tanker risks and shifting trade flows keep energy markets on edge.
The May’26 Brent Futures contract rallied all afternoon to $101.45/bbl at 15:36 GMT before softening to $99.44/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing).
In the news, US Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, said prices reaching $200/bbl were “unlikely,” though he acknowledged short-term spikes were possible due to the severe supply disruption. Meanwhile, Donald Trump argued higher oil prices benefit the US as the world’s largest producer while Washington considers policy measures such as temporarily waiving the Jones Act to ease domestic shipping. In other news, an Indian government source said Iran had agreed to allow Indian-flagged tankers to pass through the Strait or Hormuz, though an Iranian source outside the country denied any formal deal. The issue was discussed in recent calls between S. Jaishankar, India’s foreign minister, and his Iranian counterpart Seyed Abbas Araghchi. Shipping risks remain high as attacks on vessels continue during the US-Israel war with Iran, which has already disrupted tanker traffic and pushed India to explore alternative oil supplies, including increased imports from Russia. Elsewhere, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced the removal of federal PIS and Cofins taxes on diesel, while imposing a 12% tax on crude oil exports and a 50% levy on diesel exports. The policy aims to lower domestic fuel costs and protect key sectors such as agriculture during a spike in diesel prices. The move could affect state-controlled oil company Petrobras, though the government said its fuel-pricing policy will remain unchanged. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month May/Jun’26 spread is at $3.75/bbl and the six-month May/Nov’26 spread is at $18.29/bbl.
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