Brent Strengthens as Ukraine Strikes YANOS Refinery

In the news, Ukraine set fire to a major oil refinery in the Russian city of Yaroslavl in an overnight drone attack, the regional governor has said, after Russia's military reported downing 856 drones across the country. The Slavneft Yaroslavnefteorgsintez (YANOS) refinery, about 250km northeast of Moscow, has been hit at least twice before, disrupting production. The governor said the facility's infrastructure was damaged and emergency services were working to put out the fire. Elsewhere, Persian Gulf oil exports dipped in Oct from Sep’s levels, which were the highest since the Iran war began. Attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz reached a record in Oct, and tankers have stepped up efforts to avoid detection, making flows harder to track and further revisions more likely. Vortexa data shows crude, condensate, and refined product flows, excluding LPG, averaged 17.1mb/d in October, down from 18.9mb/d in Sep but still about three-quarters of pre-war levels. In other news, Germany, which holds more than a fifth of the EU's gas storage capacity, has entered winter with its lowest gas stocks on record, well below the EU average. German storage stood at just 61.05% on 02 Nov, as per Gas Infrastructure Europe, far below the 74.56% EU average and the roughly 70% target Germany set for the start of the month. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Jan/Feb’27) and 6-month (Jan/Jul’27) are at $2.71/bbl and $12.69/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon the Dated complex was sold hard into the early afternoon before finding support ahead of the window. December'26 took the largest move: Dec'26 DFL dropped from $4.80/bbl to $4.20/bbl, recovered to $4.60/bbl and sat around $4.50/bbl in size through the window. At the front, balmo DFL was pinned at $2.50/bbl all afternoon, with Nov'26 DFL drifting from $3.00/bbl to $2.70/bbl. Jan'27 DFL was traded down from $3.80/bbl to $3.60/bbl, but real buying at $3.70/bbl and $3.80/bbl pushed it up to $3.90/bbl, and size went through at $3.80/bbl after the window. Nov/Dec'26 Dated slid from $1.28/bbl to $1.12/bbl in size before buyers stepped in at $1.20/bbl, $1.25/bbl to take it back to $1.30/bbl.

The physical window was well offered: a US Major and a Tradehouse showed Forties cargoes along the curve and Majors offered Oseberg and Midland, yet the physical differential barely gave way. Paper shrugged it off, with the front CFDs only 5-10c softer as a Major sold 16-20 Nov'26 at $2.75/bbl, and Nov/Dec'26 Dated well bid into the end of the window.

In the days market pre-window, 14-18 Dec'26 daily DFL was lifted at $4.30/bbl in size and $20.00/bbl-26 Nov'26 v Dec'26 went through at $1.53/bbl, while 30 Nov'26-04 Dec'26 v Dec'26 was paid at $1.32/bbl after the window. On the sell side, a large 04-09 v 13-19 Nov'26 sale went through at -$0.80/bbl post-window, and 03-04 v 10-16 Nov'26 traded -$1.30/bbl.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai was very choppy, trading in a large range. There was repeated buying of Dec'26 Dub vs Feb'27 ICE Brent cross-month, and the Dec'26 Brent/Dubai sold off from -$0.62/bbl to -$0.98/bbl. Trade buying of Dec'26 Brent/Dubai around -$0.85/bbl was met by tradehouse selling, before we rallied to -$0.51/bbl. We came back off to -$0.84/bbl, with refiner buying around -$0.75/bbl. The Dec/Jan'27 Dubai spread traded between $1.85/bbl to $2.29/bbl, in line with Brent spreads. The Dec/Jan'27 box traded down from $0.46/bbl to $0.38/bbl on tradehouse selling, while tradehouse bought Feb/Mar'27 box at $0.06/bbl.

Sing 0.5 continued to see real selling into the afternoon while Euro 0.5 remained illiquid and traded slightly lower. Dec/Jan'27 Sing sold off from $29.00/mt to $26.50/mt in the early afternoon before rebounding to $27.50/mt in the window, Jan/Feb'27 came off from $25.50/mt to $24.00/mt. Dec'26 Sing crack continued to sell off trading down from $18.40/bbl to $17.40/bbl while Dec'26 0.5 E/W was implied around 4 dollars lower to $121.25/mt. Euro spreads struggled for liquidity with Dec/Jan'27 and Jan/Feb'27 trading at $13.50/mt and $9.50/mt, respectively, Dec'26 Euro crack was offered down on screen from -$1.20/bbl to -$1.70/bbl it briefly traded back up to -$1.30/bbl in the window before selling back down to -$1.70/bbl post-window.

380 complex was mixed initially trading higher before selling off, Dec/Jan'27 was bid up from $30.00/mt to $36.50/mt in the early afternoon before selling back down to $33.00/mt, similarly Jan/Feb'27 traded up 4 dollars to $25.00/mt and then sold back down to $21.75/mt in the lead into the window. Dec'26 380 crack traded 30c higher to $3.50/bbl in the early afternoon before consistently selling off to $1.60/bbl by window end. Barge spreads were resilient this afternoon with Dec/Jan'27 trading up a dollar to $11.25/mt while Jan/Feb'27 was bid up two dollars to $9.00/mt, Dec'26 Barge crack gapped down from -$13.00/bbl to -$13.70/bbl in the early afternoon, it found support here and then consistently traded around this level for the remainder of the afternoon.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were mixed overall, with Dec/Jan trading between $3.40/bbl and $3.60/bbl and Jan/Feb between $3.40/bbl and $3.55/bbl. Dec E/W saw offers on screen getting lifted up to -$101/mt. Kero spread selling remained persistent in Mar/Jun, well offered at $12.15/mt. Prompt ICE gasoil spreads rallied throughout, with Nov/Dec trading from $65/mt up to $72.50/mt, while Jan futures cracks rallied to $73.50/mt.

This afternoon in gasoline, MOC better offered with the Dec'26 crack getting lifted at $12.50/bbl end of window, with selling in the Dec arb from a trade at $18.80/bbl. Sellside interest in 1H'27 EBOB cracks today at $19.30/bbl, with Q1/Q2 EBOB trading up to -$6.60/bbl where interest flipped from better bid to better offered. Dec E/W traded down from -$1.75/bbl to -$1.90/bbl with selling in Feb'27 E/W from a fund at -$2.35/bbl.

This afternooon in naphtha, Euro MOC was better offered and Dec'26 Euro cracks valued -$4.90/bbl end window. Cracks moved up in the afternoon from the morning lows of -$5.25/bbl to trade up to highs of -$4.40/bbl pre-window before Q1'27 selling from -$5.40/bbl to -$5.65/bbl pushed down front cracks going into the window. Spreads were softer down the curve with the crude move down and Dec/Jan'27 falling from highs of $25/mt this morning to lows of $21.25/mt in the window. E/W came off from this morning from $74/mt down to $70/mt with Q1s getting sold down to $54/mt before recovering to trade up to $73/mt in the window. There was better MOPJ flat price buying in the afternoon on lower Brent but Cal'27 MOPJ cracks were still offerside trading -$3.20/bbl; while spreads were relatively quiet, with majors sellside Dec/Jan'27 MOPJ at $32/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI structure was firm with Dec/Jan'27 FEI trading at $57.00/mt this afternoon down slightly from $58.00/mt. Dec/Dec'26 FEI traded at $324.00/mt this afternoon which was down from $332.00/mt from around midday. Dec/Dec'26 deferred FEI saw continued buying interest at $99.00/mt and Q2/Q3'27 FEI rose in the afternoon trading up to $54.00/mt from $50.00/mt.

FEI/MOPJs continue to be strong this afternoon. With Q1'27 FEI/MOPJ trading at highs of -$10.00/mt whilst Q2'27 rose from -$78.00/mt to -$76.00/mt.

FEI/CP was weaker this afternoon with Dec'26 FEI/CP trading down to $283.00/mt from $295.00/mt this morning. Q1'27 FEI/CP traded at $195.00/mt down from $202.00/mt at midday. The LST/FEI was slightly weaker in the afternoon with Dec'26 LST/FEI trading to -$353.00/mt from -$350.00/mt earlier in the day. Mar'27 LST/FEI traded at -$231.00/mt. The Nov/Dec'26 cross arb saw importer buying at -$330.00/mt levels before printing -$340.00/mt to close.

Butane was a bit choppy today with spreads rallying slightly across the afternoon. Jan/Feb'27 Butane opened at 13.50c/gal before peaking at 14.00c/gal and then falling to 13.875c/gal. Q2/Q3'27 Butane stayed firm at 7.50c/gal whilst Q1/Q2'27 Butane traded at 34.00c/gal. There was some Jan/Mar'27 Butane/MOPJ trading today from physical trades where they were buyers at both -$72.00/mt and -$71.00/mt levels. Cal27 Butane saw smalls selling from 123.25c/gal down to 123.00c/gal before the European window.