Brent Strengthens, Russia Increases Diesel Output

In the news, Russian refiners are raising diesel output under the Kremlin's supply deal with the US, Reuters reports. Under the deal, Trump said Russia would deliver over 300mt immediately, 500mt in November, and 1mt after that, plus up to 3mt more depending on refinery conditions. Output fell to about 160kt per day in early October from 175kt in September, then began rising toward 180kt once quotas arrived. With domestic use near 140kt per day, at least 1mt a month is available for export. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia plans to store crude at Singapore's Jurong Rock Caverns from the second half of 2027 to bolster regional supply security, energy ministers from both countries said today. Singapore's Minister for Energy, Trade and Industry Tan See Leng told the Singapore International Energy Week conference that the two countries jointly intend to set up the arrangement. He said it would strengthen the resilience of Saudi crude supply in Southeast Asia and support Singapore's energy security in the event of supply disruptions. In other news, Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) will cut its Russian crude purchases in November, as high freight costs and premiums make Russian oil less attractive than Middle Eastern offers. BPCL's head of finance, Vetsa Ramakrishna Gupta, said today during an earnings call that Middle East grades are now more commercially attractive for the company. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’27) and 6-month (Dec/May’27) Brent futures contracts are at $5.25/bbl and $20.62/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon the Dated complex rallied into the window before giving it all back afterwards. Nov'26 DFL firmed from $9.45/bbl to $10.00/bbl before falling to $9.30/bbl, back at Friday’s close, with size trading at $9.70/bbl after the window and $9.80/bbl at the end of it. Dec'26 DFL was bid from $7.22/bbl to $7.50/bbl, with buying at $7.35/bbl and $7.45/bbl and size going through at $7.30/bbl; $7.50/bbl at the end of the window and last $7.20/bbl.

No physical cargoes traded in the window, and without that support the rally stalled: the DFLs peaked around the start of the window, and the heavier selling came once it closed.

In the days market, 26-30 Oct'26 v Nov'26 was paid up from $4.95/bbl to $5.15/bbl in size, 21-22 Dec'26 v 04-05 Jan'27 picked up at $2.60/bbl pre-window, and the 02-06 v 09-13 Nov'26 CFD roll came off from $1.40/bbl pre-window to $1.05/bbl, where it was bought after the window. We also saw real selling of Nov'26 v 13-19 Nov'26 at $0.10/bbl post window, while 26-30 Oct'26 v 02-06 Nov'26 firmed from a $2.50/bbl low to $2.70/bbl despite selling before easing back to $2.60/bbl.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai we continued to rally, the Nov'26 Brent/Dubai trading up from -$3.42/bbl to a high of -$2.33/bbl and finishing around -$2.46/bbl. There was Chinese buying of Jan'27 Dated/Dubai between -$2.63/bbl to -$2.40/bbl, on Jan'27 Brent/Dubai equivalent. There was also large selling of Nov'26 Dubai vs Dec'26 ICE cross-month, as well as buying of Dec'26 Dubai vs Feb'27 ICE, by a refiner and Chinese player. Nov/Dec'26 Dubai spread came off from $4.64/bbl to $4.18/bbl before recovering to $4.45/bbl, with tradehouse selling of Dec/Feb'27 Dubai spread at $6.15/bbl. The boxes all moved higher, the Nov/Dec'26 box up from -$0.33/bbl to $0.12/bbl. Further out, a trade house sold Q3'27 and Q4'27 Brent/Dubai and bought Q1'27 around -$2.25/bbl.

It was a relatively quiet afternoon in fuel, Sing 0.5 was better offered while Euro cracks traded and spreads also traded lower. Nov/Dec'26 Sing sold off from $35.00/mt to $33.25/mt where it traded in the window, Dec/Jan'27 came off a dollar selling down to $36.00/mt, Nov'26 Sing crack was offered down on screen from $27.20/bbl to $26.50/bbl by window start it then sold down to $26.35/bbl in the window. Euro 0.5 remained thin, particularly spreads with Nov/Dec'26 trading up a dollar to $15.00/mt in the window while Dec/Jan'27 was bid up 50c to $14.00/bbl, Nov'26 Euro crack continued to weaken into the afternoon selling down from -$1.00/bbl tp -$1.50/bbl in the early afternoon and it continued to trade at this level into the window, Nov'26 380 0.5 e/w came off around $4.00/mt dollars to $176.00/mt.

Price action was limited in 380 spreads with Nov/Dec'26 trading between $55.50/mt and $56.25/mt while Dec/Jan'27 traded a dollar lower to $41.00/mt, Nov'26 380 crack was better offered this afternoon, it sold down from $10.05/bbl to $9.40/bbl pre-window and then continued to sell off to $9.15/bbl in the window. Barge spreads were thin again this afternoon, Nov/Dec'26 traded lower initially selling off from $29.50/mt to $28.00/mt before rebounding to $28.50/mt, Dec/Jan'27 traded at $26.50/mt during the window, Nov'26 Barge crack weakened by 40c to -$8.80/bbl in the early afternoon and then traded around this level for the remainder of the afternoon.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were mixed, with Nov/Dec'26 trading between $3.15/bbl and $3.45/bbl on ICE gasoil volatility. E/W weakened overall, with Nov'26 hit from -$132.00/mt down to -$136.00/mt. Regrade saw selling in Q3'27, trading down to $1.40/bbl, while Apr/Oct'26 kero spreads were sell-side at $20.00/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads firmed initially before selling off, with Nov/Dec'26 trading from $62.50/mt up to $65.00/mt, now back at $62.50/mt, while Dec'26 cracks traded range-bound around $76.75/bbl. European jet diffs sold off aggressively in the front, Nov'26 hit down to $118.00/mt as Nov/Dec'26 weakened from -$4.00/mt to -$14.00/mt.

This afternoon gasoline was mixed. RBBRs were balanced and Dec'26 arbs remained range-bound around 12.00c/gal. EBOB was slightly better bid with MOC seeing better buying and Nov'26 cracks were a touch stronger, trading up from $18.35/bbl to $18.60/bbl. Spreads were better offered as Nov/Dec'26 traded around $40.00/mt, with good selling on the Nov/Dec'26 crack roll. E/W came off from $1.90/bbl to $1.70/bbl with 92 cracks seeing sellside interest around $20.25/bbl but there was good flat price buying from refiners.

This afternoon gasoline was mixed. RBBRs were balanced and Dec'26 arbs remained range-bound around 12.00c/gal. EBOB was slightly better bid with MOC seeing better buying and Nov'26 cracks were a touch stronger, trading up from $18.35/bbl to $18.60/bbl. Spreads were better offered as Nov/Dec'26 traded around $40.00/mt, with good selling on the Nov/Dec'26 crack roll. E/W came off from $1.90/bbl to $1.70/bbl with 92 cracks seeing sellside interest around $20.25/bbl but there was good flat price buying from refiners.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI structure continued to hold strong as Nov/Dec'26 FEI traded up to $56.00/mt after opening at $55.00/mt. Dec/Jan'27 FEI was firm at $48.00/mt briefly trading at $48.50/mt. There was some Euro trader buying of Q1/Q2'27 FEI at $133.00/mt. This was up from $131.00/mt pre-European window. However, the arb rebounded this afternoon as Nov'26 LST/FEI traded at -$386.00/mt and $-$388.00/mt throughout the afternoon. This was up from the morning low of -$400.00/mt. The Dec'26 LST/FEI also traded at -$340.00/mt which was up from -$350.00/mt traded this morning. The Cal28 LST/FEI went for $-$171.00/mt.

LST structure was also stronger this afternoon consistent with arb recovery despite FEI strength. Nov/Dec'26 LST traded at 1.625c/gal up from 1.50c/gal pre window. The biggest move was seen in Q1/Q2'27 LST which traded at 14.00c/gal to open before rising to 14.75c/gal by the European window.

The pronap was weaker this afternoon as NWE structure was firm. Nov/Dec'26 NWE traded at $26.00/mt while the pronap traded at -$128.00/mt before falling to -$130.00/mt.

Butane structure rebounded massively this afternoon. Nov/Dec'26 Butane rallied from 7.00c/gal during the US window to 8.75c/gal by the European window. Q1/Q2'27 Butane consistently traded around 31.00c/gal. There was also tradehouse buying of the Dec/Jan'27 C4/MOPJ cross which traded at -$156.00/mt.