Mita Chaturvedi
Research Associate, Flux
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Brent support at $114 as Mecca pact talks stoke hope
Brent cools to $114.60/bbl as Mecca pact talks in Iran stoke some hope for regional security
Published: October 26, 2026
Written by:
Mita Chaturvedi
Dec'26 dropped to $114.01/bbl at 03.36 GMT and reached $115.45/bbl at 07.56 GMT before dropping to around $114.80/bbl at 10.55 GMT (time of writing).
Brent Futures Flat Price
Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Sunday as Trump publicly weighed a deal with Iran against further military action. Trump told reporters on Sunday there would be no strike that day, and later told Fox News it is time to decide whether to make a deal with Iran or finish it off. Officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan were due to meet Iranian officials in Tehran today to discuss regional coordination, and Iran has separately offered to help broker talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. The Houthis said they attacked Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude pumping stations and Riyadh airport, and Saudi Arabia partially resumed operations at its main airport on Sunday after earlier damage, while the group vowed to keep targeting it. The group also claims to have shot down a Saudi Wing Loong II armed recon drone over Taiz. Iran's Islamic Resistance accused Baghdad of taking orders from the US and vowed to back Iran if attacked. Reports of disagreements between Netanyahu and the Chief of Staff: Netanyahu wanted to strike Iran before the elections, and Zamir requested in-depth consultations. The Borr drilling rig sank offshore Gabon; this was an exploration/development rig, not a production facility. The MaBoMo platform next to it was shut down; sweet medium crude around 5-6.5kb/d. Ukrainian strikes over the weekend hit a petrochemical plant and a warehouse in Siberia, about 2,500km from the border. A fire reportedly occurred at Omsky Kauchuk in Omsk, one of Russia's largest petrochemical facilities and a leading producer of synthetic rubber, organic synthesis products, and MTBE. UKMTO published a late report that a tanker was attacked off the coast of Oman on 23 Oct. Finally, at the time of writing, the Dec/Jan'27 and Dec/Jun'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $4.94/bbl and $19.36/bbl, respectively.
Crude Oil
This morning, the Dated complex was softer across the curve. Nov DFL slipped from $9.01/bbl to $8.89/bbl before rebounding to $9.20/bbl, still about 15c under Friday’s close, and Dec DFL followed from $6.95/bbl to $7.10/bbl. Jan DFL eased from $4.52/bbl to $4.45/bbl, where 1,000 lots went through, and is back at $4.50/bbl, about 30c down on the day. Nov/Dec Dated came off from a $6.20/bbl high to $6.10/bbl, around 55c under Friday’s close, while Oct/Nov Dated softened from $6.45/bbl to $6.25/bbl. Further down the curve, Feb DFL fell hardest, from $3.80/bbl to $3.62/bbl with 1,000 lots at $3.63/bbl, and Dec/Jan DFL firmed from $2.48 to $2.64/bbl.
In the days market, 16-27 Nov v Dec was bid up from $4.95/bbl, where 500 lots traded, to $5.10/bbl. Also saw 07-11 Dec v Dec going through at $1.20/bbl in size, and the 30 Nov-04 Dec three-weeker sold at $4.40/bbl.
This morning in Brent/Dubai we traded higher, with the Nov Brent/Dubai opening around -$3.70/bbl, dipping to -$3.89/bbl early before rallying back to -$3.65/bbl into the window. Post window we grinded higher, finishing at the highs around -$3.42/bbl. There was Chinese selling of Nov Brent/Dubai at -$3.75/bbl and -$3.58/bbl, refiner on the buyside. There was also selling of Nov Dub vs Dec ICE cross month by refiner. The Dubai spreads gapped lower and sold off into MOC, which traded down from $4.95/bbl to $4.46/bbl. There was also trade house selling of Dec/Jan Dub spread at $3.51/bbl. The boxes moved higher, the Nov/Dec box up from -$0.55/bbl to -$0.33/bbl, with trade house selling of Dec/Mar box at -$0.50/bbl.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Fuel Oil
It was a quiet start to the week this morning, Sing 0.5 opened lower and on lower crude before encountering some buying while Euro 0.5 has been very illiquid but trending lower. Nov/Dec'26 Sing opened a dollar lower at $34.00/mt before getting bid up to $35.50/mt and then selling down to $34.75/mt post window, Dec/Jan'27 traded up from $37.00/mt to $37.25/mt, Nov'26 Sing crack traded up 70c to $27.70/bbl before coming off into the window and trading down to $27.10/bbl, it last traded at $27.20/bbl. Euro 0.5 complex saw very little volume this morning, Nov/Dec'26 traded once at $14.50/mt, Nov'26 Euro crack has traded at -$1.00/bbl in tiny volume, Nov'26 0.5 E/W is trading 3 dollars higher than Friday’s close at $180.00/mt.
Nov/Dec'26 380 opened $2/mt lower at $56.00/mt it then sold off to $54.50/mt before getting bid back up to $56.00/mt post window, Dec/Jan'27 similarly traded down from $41.75/mt to $40.00/mt and then bounced back up to $41.50/mt. Nov'26 380 crack opened 50c higher at $10.50/bbl, during the window this interest turned sell side and it was offered down on screen to $9.60/bbl and has since rallied back to $10.00/bbl, Nov'26 380 E/W is trading between $115.50/mt and $116.50/mt. Barge complex was thin; spreads are yet to trade, while Nov'26 Barge crack opened 50c higher at -$8.30/bbl and has consistently traded around this level for the duration of the morning.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Distillates
This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were scale back offered as ICE rallied, with Nov/Dec'26 trading from $2.95/bbl up to $3.00/bbl lifted last. Front E/W sold off, Nov'26 hit from -$124.00/mt initially down to -$135.00/mt. Regrade also saw pressure in Nov'26, hit down to $0.25/bbl on screen, while Dec/Apr'27 kero saw selling at $18.70/bbl. Prompt ICE gasoil spreads rallied, Nov/Dec'26 trading from $56.00/mt up to $60.25/mt, while Dec'26 futures cracks also rallied from $75.00/bbl to $76.50/bbl.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Gasoline
This morning, gasoline in the East opened up very well, bidding before turning post-window. We saw 92 cracks open higher at $19.50/bbl and get lifted to highs of $20.25/bbl before weakening to $19.40/bbl end window. Spreads followed the same pattern, as Nov/Dec'26 got bid up by trade houses and refiners to highs of $5.85/bbl and then sold back down to $5.25/bbl. E/W was very strong, trading up to $1.25/bbl in Nov'26, with EBOB seeing better sell-side interest. Cracks came off from $19/bbl to $18.30/bbl in Nov'26 and Nov/Dec'26 got sold down from $42.00/mt to $40.50/mt.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Naphtha
This morning in naphtha was strong, with MOC bid and the full complex supported. MOPJ strengthened versus Friday night: Nov'26 cracks were around $3.75/bbl versus $2.60/bbl on Friday, while Jan'27 saw better interest, rallying from $1.50/bbl to $1.90/bbl before ending at $2.10/bbl, while Q1'27 traded up to $0.80/bbl; Nov/Dec'26 spreads traded from $43.50/mt to $46.50/mt before retracing on low liquidity, with Nov/Jan'27 at $82.00/mt and Jan/Apr'27 at $96.75/mt post-window. E/W opened firmer, with Nov'26 rising from $74.00/mt Friday night to $77.00/mt, reaching $78.00/mt before ending at $76.00/mt, while the rest of the structure stayed bid but illiquid. NWE naphtha cracks were choppy but firmer overall, with up from -$5.50/bbl at close to -$4.75/bbl and trading up to -$4.40/bbl before falling to -$4.90/bbl and ending around -$4.60/bbl; Q1'27 strengthened from -$6.10/bbl to -$5.75/bbl, Cal'27 traded at -$7.80/bbl and Nov/Dec'26 crack roll was around $0.60/bbl. Spreads were thin, with Nov/Dec'26 around $43.00/mt and Jan/Apr'27 moving from $80.00/mt to $81.00/mt.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
NGLs
This morning in NGLs, FEI structure was super strong. Nov/Dec'26 FEI opened trading at $48.00/mt before rising to $50.00/mt then $54.00/mt. Dec/Jan'27 FEI opened at $41.00/mt before rising to $48.00/mt by the close. There was also London trades buying of the Jun/Dec'28 spread at -$15.00/mt.
FEI/MOPJs also rallied into the close as FEI flat price was bid into the window. Q1'27 FEI/MOPJ traded at -$42.00/mt before rallying to -$39.00/mt. There was major selling at -$40.00/mt. Nov'26 FEI/MOPJ was printing at $-$2.00/mt to close implied higher as Nov'26 FEI flat price was trading at $1009.00/mt on screen at peak end window.
The Arb was also much weaker this morning off the FEI strength. Nov'26 LST/FEI traded at -$399.00/mt, down from -$380.00/mt Friday morning. Dec'26 LST gapped down from -$342.00/mt to -$350.00/mt during the window. The Dec/Jan'27 Arb roll also traded at -$28.00/mt this morning.
FEI/CP was stronger this morning as a function of stronger FEI Nov'26 FEI/CP traded at $240.00/mt before printing $257.00/mt to close. Q1'27 FEI/CP traded at $150.00/mt after printing $146.00/mt pre window. CP spreads remained illiquid but there was some real buying of Q1'27 CP at $707.00/mt up from printing $702.00/mt pre window.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Morning Macro
US stock market futures rise at the open after President Trump announces that he will not be attacking Iran today. Brazil’s stock market falls -20% after President Lula da Silva is unexpectedly re-elected.
While equity headlines remain bearish, in reality market breadth is strengthening significantly, but towards defensives, as defensive staples have risen over 10% in 2 weeks.….
Six of the world's ten largest equity markets have entered correction or bear-market territory, with South Korea leading the declines (-41%), followed by China (-20.4%), Hong Kong (-18%), Japan (-14.5%), India (-14%) and France (-10.4%). The selloff is increasingly global, with Asian equities bearing the brunt of the damage.
But the reality is market breadth is improving….. US equity market breadth is strengthening sharply, with 61% of S&P 500 stocks now trading above their 50-day moving average, more than triple the proportion at the October 1 low. Meanwhile, 57% are above their 200-day moving average, up 17 percentage points in three weeks, despite the index remaining broadly unchanged. This ranks among the three sharpest improvements in breadth over the past three years, suggesting the market is strengthening significantly beneath the surface.
Final Sept UMich survey takeaways:
* Sentiment slipped versus initial estimates.
* Current conditions sank to 2nd-lowest on record, though expectations improved.
Divergence for the history books... Look at what happened on Thursday 22nd of October. The index fell 1.2% on October 22 even though more than 300 of its stocks went up.
The S&P 500 has seen a wider divergence than this only once since 1990. The only bigger one was in January 2025, when DeepSeek hit markets.
Gold is trading right at the critical $4,000 level. Price remains well below the now downward-sloping 200-day moving average, and as we all know, nothing good tends to happen below the 200-day. On the other hand, the major long-term trendline converges around current levels, while $4,000 has acted as key support over the past year. A massive technical crossroads. Make or break.
Silver shorts are becoming increasingly crowded, with 3-month put-call skew at its most bearish level since July and higher only 2% of the past year. Hedge funds and CTAs have sold $2.2bn in silver futures over three weeks, cutting net longs to just $1.7bn, a two-year low and down from $8.5bn in December 2025.
..... Elon Musk says debt markets have “almost entirely shut off” access to money for any company without substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. Neoclouds are going to see “guppy-level death and consolidation,” Musk says.
Key Events This Week:
1. September New Home Sales data - Tuesday
2. October Fed Meeting and Rate Decision - Wednesday
3. Microsoft, and Alphabet, Report Earnings - Wednesday
4. September PCE Inflation data - Thursday
5. US Q3 2026 GDP Data - Thursday
6. Amazon and Intel, Report Earnings - Thursday
7. ~20% of S&P 500 Companies Report Earnings This Week
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