Brent Rallies Up to $117/bbl, China Urges to Expand Production Capacity

In the news, China's National Energy Administration has urged the country's oil and gas companies to expand production capacity, accelerate the build-out of national strategic oil and gas supply bases, and take responsibility for national energy security. According to an NEA summary released today of a meeting held Wednesday, firms should step up investment and exploration, targeting "steady growth in crude oil output and rapid growth in natural gas production." PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC were among the participants. Elsewhere, the first Russian diesel cargo bound for the US under the surprise Moscow-Trump agreement is en route to New York. The Malta-flagged tanker Agioi Fanendes loaded 40kmt of ultra-low sulphur diesel at Russia's Baltic port of Primorsk on 22 Oct, per LSEG data, and is due to arrive in the US on 07 Nov. In other news, Russian sellers have raised ESPO Blend offers to China to record highs, backed by strong demand and elevated freight costs, though some independent Chinese refiners may baulk as their margins turn negative. Cargoes for end-December and January delivery are being offered at premiums above $25/bbl to ICE Brent, with two offers heard above $30/bbl delivered to China. November and December cargoes were offered at $26-$27/bbl premiums, with a few still unsold, another trader said. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’27) and 6-month (Dec/May’27) Brent futures spreads are at $5.10/bbl and $20.98/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon, we saw Dated complex dipping early before rallying into and after the window. Nov'26 DFL slid from $8.95/bbl to $8.60/bbl, where size went through, before rallying to $9.29/bbl. Dec'26 DFL dipped to $6.60/bbl before climbing to $7.30/bbl, with size going through at $6.77/bbl, and last traded $7.20/bbl. Balmo DFL went the other way, easing from $10.45/bbl to $9.30/bbl into the window. Nov/Dec'26 Dated came off from $6.70/bbl to $6.40/bbl, with size trading at $6.54/bbl, before bouncing to $6.60/bbl after the window. There were no cargoes bid or offered in the physical window, but the DFLs pushed higher through it anyway.

In the days market, 19-25 Nov'26 v 26 Nov'26-02 Dec'26 was bought at $1.56/bbl pre-window, while 20-26 Nov'26 v Dec'26 traded up from $4.40/bbl to $4.55/bbl into the window. Also saw real selling of Nov'26 v 23-27 Nov'26 at $2.70/bbl in size, and the 26-27 Oct'26 v 02-03 Nov'26 CFD roll sold at -$2.60/bbl at the start of the window.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai we traded higher, with continued refiner buying of Nov'26 Brent/Dubai in size, first around -$3.70/bbl and then more at -$3.57/bbl late on. The Nov'26 Brent/Dubai traded up from -$4.07/bbl to -$3.57/bbl, coming back off into the close at -$3.73/bbl. The Dubai spreads traded range-bound, the Nov/Dec'26 Dubai spread between $4.88/bbl to $5.20/bbl. There was tradehouse selling of Nov/Dec'26/Jan'27 Dubai fly around $1.33/bbl. Despite tradehouse selling of Nov/Dec'26 box around -$0.60/bbl, the box traded up from -$0.78/bbl to -$0.41/bbl. Further down the curve there was selling of Q1/Q2'27 box at -$0.10/bbl, and some Q3'27 selling around -$2.30/bbl.

Sing 0.5 strengthened this afternoon, while Euro cracks saw real selling in the early afternoon before rebounding towards the window. Nov/Dec'26 Sing was bid up from $33.75/mt to $35.00/mt and Dec/Jan'27 from $36.00/mt to $37.00/mt, Nov'26 Sing crack strengthened from $26.00/bbl to $26.90/bbl. Euro spreads saw better volume today with Nov/Dec'26 trading up a dollar to $14.50/mt while Dec/Jan'27 was bid up from $13.00/mt to $14.25/mt. Nov'26 Euro cracks sold down 80c to -$1.60/bbl, it then found some buying in the window and traded up to -$1.05/bbl, gaining a further 10c to -$0.95/bbl post window.

380 complex was resilient and mostly traded at this mornings elevated levels, Nov/Dec'26 traded down 75c to $57.00/mt before getting bid back up to $58.00/mt, Dec/Jan'27 traded between $41.50/mt and $42.00/mt, Nov'26 380 crack was quite illiquid this afternoon trading 50c lower to $10.00/bbl. Barge complex continued to strengthen into the afternoon with Nov/Dec'26 gaining $2.50/mt to $28.50/mt and Dec/Jan'27 trading up from $24.00/mt to $25.50/mt, Nov'26 Barge crack continued to be range-bound trading between -$9.10/bbl and -$8.80/bbl.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were bid but were not chasing on higher ICE gasoil, with Dec/Jan'27 trading at $4.90/bbl. E/W weakened in Dec'26, from -$95.00/mt down to -$97.50/mt, while Q2'27 was hit down to -$67.00/mt. Regrade was stable at $0.60/bbl in Nov'26, with kero spreads offer in 2027.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads rallied throughout, with Nov/Dec'26 trading from $52.50/mt up to $57.75/mt, while Dec'26 futures cracks firmed from $75.00/bbl up to $76.50/bbl. European jet diffs weakened, Nov'26 from $141.00/mt down to $134.00/mt, now at $135.00/mt last.

This afternoon in gasoline, MOC touch better bid with the Nov'26 EBOB crack getting lfitted $17.95/bbl end of window. Trade sell side of Nov/Dec'26, seeing decent selling at $42.00/mt. Dec'26 arbs better bid, seeing buying at $11.20/bbl, with continued selling in Q2'27 arb, seeing the Q1/Q2'27 EBOB crack roll under pressure with lack of interest buyside. Some refiners buyside of flat price in 92 in Nov'26 and Dec'26 this afternoon, seeing the E/W strengthen on the back of this, with Nov'26 trading up to -$0.30/bbl.

This afternoon in naphtha, MOC was bid, with spreads strengthening further while front cracks recovered from earlier lows. NWE Nov cracks ended at -$5.50/bbl versus -$5.65/bbl this morning after falling to -$6/bbl; Q1 recovered to -$6.10/bbl, Cal 27 traded at -$8.05/bbl and the Nov/Dec crack roll firmed to $0.15/bbl. Spreads were stronger, with Nov/Dec up from $40/mt this morning to $43/mt and Dec/Jan at $27.50/mt, though gasnap box buying from -$2/mt to -$3/mt held back the move. E/W firmed, with Nov up from around $73/mt this morning to $74/mt, off highs of $74.75/mt, Q1 unchanged at $56/mt and Cal 27 at $40.50/mt; the Nov/Dec box eased to $1.25/mt and Jan/Feb to $6/mt. MOPJ cracks remained largely illiquid, with Nov recovering from $2.40/bbl to $2.60/bbl post-window, unchanged versus the morning, while Jan traded earlier at $1.35/bbl. Spreads strengthened, with Nov/Dec up from $41/mt to $44/mt post-window, Dec/Jan at $38.50/mt and Dec/Mar implied at $108/mt on legs after trading from $103/mt to $106/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI structure was firm with Nov/Dec'26 FEI trading at $45.00/mt throughout the afternoon. Dec/Dec'26 FEI hit $274.00/mt this afternoon after trading at $261.00/mt around midday. FEI/MOPJs were softer this afternoon trading at -$46.00/mt and -$47.00/mt down from -$43.00/mt at the Asian close. This was primarily as a function of higher MOPJ sensitivity to higher crude this afternoon.

There was large size buying of prompt Arbs by physical players at the US open. Dec'26 LST/FEI went for size at -$338.00/mt before getting bid on up to -$335.00/mt. However, off continued Chinese FEI flat price bidding at $933.00/mt up to $936.00/mt and a strong crude, sellers prevailed and Dec'26 LST/FEI sold down to -$340.00/mt by the European close. The Cal 28 arb also weakened trading at -$172.00/mt from -$170.00/mt.

It was hard to find offers in LST structure this afternoon which was slightly stronger. Nov/Dec'26 LST traded at 1.00c/gal before rising to 1.125c/gal. Q1/Q2'27 traded from 12.00c/gal to 12.50c/gal. Q2/Q3'27 was firm at 4.75c/gal with most action from trade houses.

Butane structure was stronger today. Nov/Dec'26 Butane opened at 6.00c/gal, weakened to 5.75c/gal before rising to 6.375c/gal to close. Dec/Jan'27 traded at 7.25c/gal before rising to 7.50c/gal to close.

There was bank selling of the Cal 27 Butane at 124.00c/gal and also buying of the Cal27 Butane/MOPJ at -$237.00/mt this afternoon.