Mita Chaturvedi
Research Associate, Flux
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Brent over $114 as Trump denies IRGC attacks
Trump denies IRGC attacks as the IEA's Fatih Birol says "the best day for a ceasefire would have been yesterday"
Published: October 23, 2026
Written by:
Mita Chaturvedi
The Dec'26 Brent futures contract opened above $113.09/bbl this morning but struggled to hold above $114.60/bbl, settling at $114.33/bbl at 11.13 BST (time of writing).
Brent Futures Flat Price
Trump dismissed the IRGC claims of attacks and vessels hitting mines, saying Iran is “making up fake hits, mines, and everything else because more oil is coming through the Hormuz Strait now than it did even prior to the beginning of the conflict.” The UAE reported an oil spill from a tanker affecting Umm Al Quwain’s beaches, and Anadolu reports that Iran has set seven conditions for reopening the strait and resuming talks. Saudi Civil Defence activated an emergency warning in Riyadh early this morning, telling residents to shelter in place after loud explosions were heard across the capital. BBG reports that Rosneft is facing mounting financial difficulties as Ukraine expands its refinery strikes, with Ryazan shut for more than half the time since it was hit in May, though no new strike on a Russian refinery was reported overnight. In Ukraine, Russian strikes forced one of DTEK’s thermal power plants to stop generating, and Ukrenergo scheduled hourly outages in some regions today. The IEA’s Fatih Birol warned that unless both straits are unconditionally opened soon, the energy world has little buffer to keep prices at today’s level; "the best day for a ceasefire would have been yesterday". He added, “Life will not be easy for Europe this year and also next year”. Finally, at the time of writing, the Dec/Jan'27 and Dec/Jun'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $4.57/bbl and $19.09/bbl, respectively.
Crude Oil
This morning, the Dated complex held up at the front but was softer in Q1'27. Balmo DFL was sold down from $10.50/bbl to $10.00/bbl, pulling balmo/Nov'26 DFL in from an early 1.95. Nov'26 DFL recovered from an 8.40 low to $8.75/bbl, with 500 lots going through at $8.70/bbl, before slipping back to $8.60/bbl, while Nov/Dec'26 and Dec/Feb'27 DFL both traded 2.20. Nov'26 Dated firmed from $117.50/bbl to $117.85/bbl, and Dec'26 Dated was paid at $111.50/bbl. The front Dated spreads gained too, with real players buying Nov/Jan'27 Dated at $11.32/bbl, around 20c above last night’s close, and Dec/Jan'27 Dated trading $4.97/bbl. On the Dubai side, Jan'27 Dated/Dubai rallied from $1.65/bbl to $1.90/bbl in size. In Q1'27, Jan'27 DFL gave back from a $5.06/bbl high to $4.80/bbl, nearly 30c down on the day, and Feb'27 DFL slid from $4.00/bbl to $3.90/bbl, around 40c lower. Further down the curve, Sep/Oct'26 27 Dated traded $1.16/bbl in 250 lots. In the days market, we saw 23 Oct'26 v 30 Oct'26 trading $1.55/bbl.
This morning in Brent/Dubai, we gapped lower; the Nov'26 Brent/Dubai opening was around $1.00/bbl lower at -$4.68/bbl and sold off into the window, down to -$4.96/bbl. Post window we rallied, with refiner buying of Nov'26 Brent/Dubai from -$4.45/bbl through -$3.95/bbl, finishing around -$3.97/bbl. There was more Dec'26 and Jan'27 dated Dubai buying, which sparked the rally post-window in Brent/Dubai. There was some product selling of Q1'27 Brent/Dubai. The Dubai spreads were choppy, with tradehouse selling of Nov/Dec'26/Jan'27 Dubai fly in good size. The Nov/Dec'26 spiked to $5.70/bbl in the window before coming off to $5.19/bbl. The Nov/Dec'26 box dipped to -$1.21/bbl into MOC, then recovered to -$0.77/bbl.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Fuel Oil
Sing 0.5 opened stronger and cracks saw real buying into the window before retracing. Nov/Dec'26 Sing opened 50c higher at $34.00/mt and was bid up to $34.50/mt before selling down to $33.25/mt during the window, Dec/Jan'27 also opened 50c higher at $35.00/mt was bid up a dollar to $36.00/mt and then sold back down to $35.00/mt. Nov'26 Sing crack was bid up to $27.25/bbl, 65c higher than yesterdays close, it was then aggressively offered down on screen to $26.10/bbl in the window, Dec'26 Sing crack traded up from $25.75/bbl to $26.20/bbl before selling down to $25.25/bbl in the window. Euro 0.5 spreads were illiquid again this morning with Nov/Dec'26 trading at $14.50/mt in low volume while Nov'26 Euro crack saw real selling, it opened 30c lower at -$0.10/bbl and then consistently sold down on screen to -$0.70/bbl, Nov'26 0.5 E/W traded up again at $171.00/mt.
380 complex opened higher again this morning, Nov/Dec'26 opened $1.50/mt higher at $58.00/mt before briefly selling down to $57.00/mt and then rallying back to $57.75/mt, Dec/Jan'27 traded up a dollar to $43.00/mt before selling back down to $42.00/mt. Nov'26 380 crack was bid up from $10.00/bbl to $10.80/bbl before selling down to $10.45/bbl post window in tiny size. Barge complex was thin, Nov/Dec'26 strengthened again opening 2 dollars higher at $26.00/mt and consistently traded at this level, Nov'26 Barge crack was range-bound trading between -$8.90/bbl and -$8.70/bbl, Dec'26 Barge crack traded at -$8.60/bbl post window.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Distillates
This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were bid, with Dec/Jan trading from $4.70/bbl up to $5.10/bbl. E/W saw strong selling into the window, with Dec hit down to -$96/mt, while Q4 remained well bid at -$44.50/mt. Regrade was sell-side in Q4, trading at $1.50/bbl, while front regrade sold off from $0.80/bbl to $0.60/bbl. Prompt ICE gasoil spreads traded rangebound, with Nov/Dec trading between $41.50/mt and $43.00/mt, while Dec futures cracks sold off from $79.10/bbl to $77.50/bbl.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Gasoline
This morning in gasoline, MOC well bid in the East, seeing Nov'26 crack strengthen from $16.90/bbl to $17.20/bbl end of window, with selling from trade $17.20/bbl. Nov/Dec'26 gets lifted 4.2 on screen and trades up to $4.50/bbl end of window, with real interest remaining sell-side. EBOB weaker this morning, with selling in Nov/Dec'26 EBOB. Arbs remain better offered in Q2'27 with selling at $26.20/bbl from trade.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Naphtha
This morning in naphtha was mixed, with MOC flat bid and early buying in E/W fading, while spreads pulled back from the highs but remained firmer versus last night. MOPJ Nov'26 cracks eased from around $2.75/bbl last night to $2.60/bbl post-window after opening at $2.90/bbl, with Q1'27 around $0.20/bbl and the Nov/Dec'26 crack roll up 10c to $0.30/bbl. Spreads strengthened, with Nov/Dec'26 up from $40.00/mt to $41.00/mt after reaching $42.50/mt, Dec/Jan'27 from $35.50/mt to $36.50/mt and Jan/Feb'27 from $30.00/mt to $32.50/mt.
E/W gave back the early rally, with Nov'26 falling from $76.00/mt to around $73.00/mt versus $73.50/mt last night; the Nov/Dec'26 box narrowed from $2.50/mt to $1.00/mt, while Q1'27 rose from $55.00/mt to $56.00/mt and Dec/Jan'27 was $10.75/mt. NWE naphtha front cracks weakened before recovering, with Nov'26 trading down to -$6.05/bbl and ending at -$5.65/bbl versus -$5.45/bbl last night; Q1'27 improved from -$6.25/bbl to -$6.10/bbl, Q1/Q2'27 was $1.90/bbl and the Nov/Dec'26 crack roll eased from $0.22/bbl to $0.10/bbl, with Dec/Jan'27 trading at -$.35/bbl. Spreads were firmer, with Nov/Dec'26 up from $37.50/mt to $40.00/mt and Dec/Jan'27 from $24.00/mt to $26.00/mt.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
NGLs
This morning in NGLs, FEI structure ripped up. Nov/Dec'26 FEI was trading $45.00/mt throughout the entire window up from $41.00/mt yesterday afternoon. Dec/Jan'27 FEI was trading $41.00/mt to close at a peak of $42.00/mt during the morning. Dec/Dec'26 FEI went for $256.00/mt up from $248.00/mt yesterday afternoon.
FEI/CP was also slightly stronger this morning trading between $193.00/mt and $195.00/mt in Dec'26. However, CP buying in Nov'26 as well as Nov/Dec'26 CP being bid by real as well as big shaver kept the CP leg strong. Nov/Dec'26 CP traded at $9.00/mt before rising to $11.00/mt and CP flat price traded at $744.00/mt to close. Small market maker on the sell side. There was Q1'27 FEI/MOPJ trading at -$43.00/mt which was firm against yesterday’s levels.
LST/FEI traded -$380.00/mt in Nov'26, -$340.00/mt in Dec'26 and -$285.00/mt in Q1'27. This is a gap down from yesterday’s traded levels of -$330.00/mt in Dec'26. There was some bank selling of Cal 27 LST this morning post window trading at 95.75c/gal.
Nov'26 FEI was strong end window trading $972.00/mt to $974.00/mt on screen to close.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Morning Macro
AI spending fears came roaring back, oil spiked on Iran, and crowded trades got hit hard.
Nasdaq 100 -2.9%, its worst day in four months. S&P 500 -1.2%. The Philly semiconductor index -6.7%, with all 30 names lower.
But this wasn't a broad sell-off. The equal-weight S&P rose 0.8% and two-thirds of S&P stocks finished higher as money rotated into defensives. This was an unwind.
Thursday’s selling was narrow, but the broad market was already hurting: 59% of S&P 500 stocks are in a bear market.
Hedge funds felt it. The long/short momentum factor fell 6.2%, its steepest drop since February. Concentrated shorts were squeezed, and all three main equity strategies fell more than 1% on the same day for the first time since COVID.
Positioning is stretched. Goldman Sachs says its prime brokerage clients are shorting stocks at roughly five times the rate they're buying, pushing short exposure near a five-year high while overall bullish bets are being cut. That's fuel for more squeezes.
Bonds rallied hard. US 2s and 10s -16bp, with the 10-year back below 5%.
AI credit is flashing red. Oracle's 5Y CDS is near 300bp. Meta's CDS hit a record 119bp after it disclosed around $825bn of long-term spending commitments. The AI arms race is becoming a financing race.
THE 5 CHARTS
1. SILVER BREAKS $55.49 SUPPORT
Precious metals hit hard: silver -5.8%, gold -2.8%. Silver's summer lows are gone. The next target lower is $49.73.
(Chart 1: Silver, Bloomberg)
2. S&P 500 DOUBLE TOP AT 7,816
Two rejections at 7,816 raise double-top risk, but a break below 7,551 is needed for confirmation.
(Chart 2: S&P 500, daily, double top, Bloomberg)
3. UK 30-YEAR YIELD SITS ON LONG-TERM SUPPORT
A break lower opens the door to a much bigger gilt rally.
(Chart 3: UK 30-year gilt yield, Bloomberg)
4. BRENT BREAKS HIGHER
Up 4% to above $113, a five-month high, as Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities and reports of new strike plans on Iran rattle supply.
(Chart 4: Brent crude, daily, Bloomberg)
5. KOSPI ON FINAL SUPPORT AT 5,262
A decisive close below 5,262 would increase the risk of accelerated selling.
(Chart 5: KOSPI, daily, Bloomberg)
TECH DOWN. BREADTH UP. BONDS RALLYING. OIL BREAKING HIGHER.
This is a concentrated unwind of crowded positioning, not a broad-market selloff. The test now is whether it stays orderly or spreads into credit and the wider market. Watch the levels.
Today’s data: Global flash PMIs. University of Michigan final October sentiment and inflation expectations
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